Cowboys Theory: Dak Prescott Must 'Become a Running Back' in New Offense?
The Dallas Cowboys would be better off if they let quarterback Dak Prescott rush more often this upcoming season. Or, at least, that's the theory here.
After starting his career by averaging over 305 rushing yards per season and a 5.3 yards per carry average, Dak has seen his yards and yardage averages fall in recent years; in fact, he’s failed to eclipse 200 rushing yards in Dallas the past three seasons.
Despite the internet’s love of mocking rushing quarterbacks and calling them "running backs,'' (see the Ravens standout Lamar Jackson) while Dak's rushing totals have declined in recent years, so has his QBR.
In the first four seasons of Dak’s career, when he rushed for more total yards per season, he had an average QBR of 68.7, significantly higher than the 61.9 QBR average he’s posted in the seasons since. Unsurprisingly, the first half of his career also featured more individual accolades, such as both of his Pro Bowl appearances, his best touchdown to interception ratio, and his fourth season; he also had the most passing yards of any season in his career.
It was recently suggested by SB Nation that from now on, the Cowboys let Dak run the ball in higher-risk situations to help correct his interception problem, something that has been shown to increase a team’s "expected points added'' (EPA).
Data shows that quarterbacks scrambling on third down has proven more effective than passing the football in recent years and helping their teams score. While passing may yield more explosive high-ceiling results when conversions occur, rushing elevates the floor, meaning that the offenses live to see another series because scrambling has proven safer for getting the needed yardage.
“This seems counter-intuitive, but when you factor in that most quarterback scrambles take place in high-leverage situations like third downs, two-minute drills, and in the red zone, it begins to make sense that these runs could be extremely valuable,” SB Nation wrote.
“When we tie in the idea of so many of Dak’s interceptions in 2022 coming in these same situations, and late in downs when scrambling would likely be a sensible alternative, maybe asking Dak to tuck and run a time or two more per game rather than trying to fit the ball into a tight window to his third or fourth read might be beneficial.”
Indeed, as fun as it may sound to let it fly on every third down now that Dallas has deep threat Brandin Cooks catching passes alongside CeeDee Lamb, the offense could benefit from allowing Dak to run the ball more often in 2023. And here's the kicker to the theory: Guess what? We don't think the idea inside The Star has anything to do with interceptions. But otherwise ... We think coach Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys - while not wanting to put Dak in harm's way - rather agree with this.
You can follow Isaiah DeAnda Delgado on Twitter and Instagram @IsaiahDDelgado.
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