Cowboys Offseason To-Do List: What’s No. 1 Priority?
We're just over a month removed from the Dallas Cowboys' loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, and the front office is working hard to improve the roster to take the next step.
If Jerry and Stephen Jones look to ESPN, they'll have some help. Bill Barnwell recently predicted moves to improve all 32 teams this offseason.
For Dallas, it's easy. Barnwell says the Cowboys must resolve the running back situation:
"After years of having a clearly defined one-two punch, the Cowboys can go in several different directions at running back. Ezekiel Elliott's status is in question after he has battled injuries the past two seasons, while Tony Pollard, an unrestricted free agent, fractured his left fibula in Dallas' playoff loss to San Francisco. Both players could be back in 2023, or the team could start over."
Since Pollard entered the league in 2018, Elliott has shared progressively more carries with him. An 80/20 split in Pollard's rookie season turned into almost 50/50 in 2021, and last year, Pollard emerged as the best option at RB1.
Barnwell gets into a bunch of NextGen Stats in his prediction, but they do make sense:
"... per NFL Next Gen Stats, Elliott's 1,013 carries have generated just 54 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), suggesting that he could be ably replaced by a league-average back. (Pollard's 510 carries have generated a whopping 446 RYOE over that same stretch.) Elliott has a popular reputation as a valuable short-yardage back, but he has generated five fewer first downs over expectation than an average back would have gained in the same situations."
The Cowboys owe Elliott almost $11 million for 2023 with a $16 million cap hit. If they release Elliott as a post-June 1 release, Dallas would free up $10.9 million in cap space, which is big since they currently sit at $7.6 million over the projected cap for 2023.
Barnwell points out that Elliott is still considered a great pass protector and possibly an average veteran back, but teams would expect to pay about $4 million per year for that skill set in free agency.
Barnwell also calls attention to Pollard's recent injury:
"Pollard's situation is suddenly much trickier after his injury, which also required surgery to repair ligaments from a high ankle sprain. It's unclear whether he will be ready to play by the start of training camp, which could depress his value on the open market. I projected Pollard to land a deal in the ballpark of three years and $36 million if he got to free agency. And in hindsight, the Cowboys might have planned to use the $10.1 million franchise tag to keep him for 2023."
The easiest solution here would be for the team to move on from Elliott and tag Pollard while adding a veteran back to play while Pollard recovers from his injury, but as Barnwell points out, "the Cowboys don't do easy well."
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