Ball Security Or Bust: Eagles Need A Better Balance To Increase Margin Of Error

Escaping Orchard Park, N.Y. in late Decemeber with a win is never a bad thing.

However, doing so thanks to balls and strikes left many Philadelphia fans feeling less than thrilled after a 13-12 survival excersise against the Bills.

Buffalo MVP quarterback Josh Allen had Khalil Shakir wide open in the end zone for a potential two-point conversion with five seconds left and was just a bit outside, perhaps a culmination of the many brushbacks the reigning MVP endured over the first 59 minutes thanks to a ferocious Eagles' pass rush.

If you're tired of the baseball analogies, just know the sinking feeling was that the Eagles were a heartbeat away from wasting a 13-0 advantage and a superlative defensive effort because the offense went into an early hibernation in what was a rain-soaked affair.

After a first half where the offense seemed to expand on confidence-building wins over lesser foes Las Vegas and Washington, efficiency was traded for a risk-averse approach by Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo over the final 30 minutes.

The Eagles had 17 largely ineffective plays in the second half and gained a measly 17 yards before that dipped to 16 in victory formation. Quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t complete a pass over those 17 plays, finishing 0 for 7.

Yet, while straining credulity, Sirianni claimed the foot never left the gas.

“We weren’t in a mode of saying, ‘Hey, 13-0 is enough,” the coach said. “Not against this quarterback, not against this offense. And so I don’t think our mindset was ever that. But I got to do a better job there in that scenario. I’ll put that on myself.”

There is no reason that Sirianni and Patullo couldn't generate a layup for Hurts. That said, usually when the Eagles' offense goes south it involves breakdowns in execution, be it pre-snap penalties or negative plays.

The first feel from watching the Bills game was poor offensive line play taking the Eagles out of third-and-manageable situations. The Pro Football Focus grades seconded that thesis with particularly poor run-blocking marks on the interior.

The Buffalo defense then backed off on third-and-longs and often spied Hurts, making it difficult to fit the football in tight windows down the field.

Risk Averse

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts faces pressure from Buffalo Bills defensive end Andre Jones Jr. coming at him during first half action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Dec. 28, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The second part of the issues is the risk-averse approach approach Sirianni often hammers home by pointing to the 43-2 record when the Eagles win the turnover margin since he arrived as head coach.

However, Sunday is an example of correlation does not imply causation because the Eagles were a Allen strike from turning that Sirianni trope on its head.

Hurts has been coached hard to avoid turnovers since high school when his father stressed it as the most important part of playing the position. Then came Nick Saban and finally Sirianni with the only respites being a year with Lincoln Riley and an NFL rookie campaign with Doug Pederson.

Over the eight drop-backs Hurts had in the second half against the Bills, four were throwaways and one was a sack, meaning the Eagles played 30 minutes with three targeted throws, a ridiculous offensive approach the QB1 defended perhaps with a bit of Stockholm syndrome engaged.

“I don’t think it’s a conservative thing to have good ball security and be mindful that the turnover margin directly correlates with winning,” Hurts responded. “That’s a truth of the game, and that’s a well-known fact of what we’ve been able to do and how we’ve been able to play over the last five years collectively.”

A poor run support team in general, the Bills sold out to stop Saquon Barkley in the second half yet Philadelphia kept trying to run into less-desirable looks instead of opening things up in the passing game whether that's vis play-action or with a spread approach to get the Buffalo defense to loosen up.

“We got to mix in some of the play action things that we’ve done so well in the last last couple weeks and not wait there again. That’s on me,” Sirianni said.

Time is running out to fix the issues and you can make a strong argument that its already expired and this is the Eagles' offense moving forward.

It's sure looks like it's going to be ball security or bust in the postseason.

“You got to feel pretty good, right?” Sirianni said when asked about how he feels if Buffalo was the last we will see of the key offensive components until the playoffs. “Three-game winning streak. In this league, three-game winning streaks are hard. Winning 11 games is hard. Winning the division is hard. And so, you feel really good about some of the things, but there’s also an opportunity to self-scout yourself and do some different things there."

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