NFC South Analysis: Odds Falcons Catch Tom Brady's Bucs in Playoff Race?
The Atlanta Falcons will begin the month of December firmly in the playoff race, thanks in part due to the struggles of the rest of the NFC South.
At 5-7, the Falcons sit just half a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) for first place, with the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers both lurking at 4-8, one and a half games in Tampa Bay's rearview mirror.
Despite being two games below .500, Atlanta finds itself in what coach Arthur Smith described as a "unique situation" - in the mix with critical games still to be played.
With the Falcons two and a half games out of the last wild card spot, their easiest path to the franchise's first playoff berth since the 2017 season is to win the division - and thus overtake the Buccaneers in the process.
Here's a look at what's to come for both the Falcons and Bucs, using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) as a measure to predict wins and losses.
Falcons:
- 12/4: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7)
Odds of Falcons victory, via FPI: 66.3 percent
- BYE WEEK
- 12/18: at New Orleans Saints (4-8)
Odds of Falcons victory, via FPI: 44 percent
- 12/24: at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Odds of Falcons victory, via FPI: 20 percent
- 01/01: vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Odds of Falcons victory, via FPI: 51.3 percent
- 01/08: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Odds of Falcons victory, via FPI: 40.5 percent
Odds to Win NFC South: 16.7 percent
Odds to Make Playoffs: 18.3 percent
Buccaneers
- 12/5: vs. New Orleans Saints (4-8)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 62.1 percent
- 12/11: at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 30.9 percent
- 12/18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 46.2 percent
- 12/25: at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 48.6 percent
- 01/01: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 76.2 percent
- 01/08: at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
Odds of Buccaneers victory, via FPI: 59 percent
Odds to Win NFC South: 72.9 percent
Odds to Make Playoffs: 73.5 percent
The Saints have a 6.4 percent chance to win the division, while the Panthers stand at 4.1 percent.
FPI projects Tampa Bay to be firmly within the eight- to nine-win range, while Atlanta's range stretches from seven to 10. With both favored in two games leading into their Week 18 matchup, it appears the division may be up for grabs when they hit the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the season finale.
But for now, both sides still have plenty of business to take care of, starting in Week 13 as the Falcons host the Steelers on Sunday and the Buccaneers welcome the Saints to Tampa Bay for Monday Night Football.
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