Atlanta Falcons Starting QB Odds Released: Why They're Right and Wrong

The Atlanta Falcons are to kick off one of the more prominent offseason storylines later on this summer with the commencement of their quarterback battle, and Sports Illustrated has highlighted their favorite to win the job.

Newcomer Tua Tagovailoa will square off with incumbent starter Michael Penix Jr., who is still in the midst of his recovery from an ACL injury that cut his 2025 season short, and the veteran is reportedly the betting favorite.

As of the end of May, FanDuel Sportsbook set Tagovailoa as the -136 favorite, Penix at +102, and third-stringer Trevor Siemian at an improbable +8000. That equates to an implied probability of 57.63%, or just a little bit more than a coin toss favorite.

This will mark the first season that Tagovailoa has suited up for a new team, having spent the last six seasons with the Miami Dolphins.

The veteran started 76 games for the Dolphins, where he completed 68% of his passes for 18,166 yards, 120 touchdowns, and 59 interceptions in that span. At his best, Tagovailoa has led the NFL in touchdown rate (6.3% in 2022), passing yards (4,624 in 2023), and completion percentage (72.9% in 2024). At his worst, he struggled with turnovers and injuries, pushing the Dolphins to bench him and eat an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead cap.

He has endured immense volatility throughout his career, which ultimately led him to Kevin Stefanski and the Falcons. It could also prove to be a blessing for Tagovailoa, who could stand to make the most of a change in scenery (along with his new head coach).

Tagovailoa has a sizeable experience advantage over Penix (64 more career starts) and a clean bill of health that could give him a bit of a head start in the competition in terms of on-field availability. Penix pushed back on the health question during the first week of OTAs last Tuesday, saying that he felt good and re-stated his goal of being ready to play come Week 1.

Penix has a hill to climb, but he looked relatively normal during the practice where the media was available to watch. He will need to show he can be a consistent player in this offense, but his arm strength is something Tagovailoa will struggle to match.

The battle will get underway, but there appears to be a leader in the clubhouse for the player who will take the first snap in September.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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