Tua Tagovailoa Favored Over Michael Penix Jr. to be Falcons Starting Quarterback

With the 2026 NFL Draft now in the rear view mirror, it's time to start looking ahead to late summer when training camps will open up across the league. The biggest storylines during training camp will always be the handful of quarterback battles that take place each season.

This year, one of the quarterback battles that's going to take place this year is in Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr. will be entering his third year with the Falcons, but things aren't as straightforward for him this year as they were in 2025. Not only is he coming off a serious knee injury, but the Falcons went out and signed former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the offseason.

Many people, including myself, assumed he would at least begin the season as the second-string quarterback in case Penix stumbles out of the gate or suffers another injury, but FanDuel Sportsbook has released odds on which quarterback will start Week 1, and it's Tagovailoa that's set as the betting favorite.

Who Will Start at Quarterback for Falcons in 2026?

Tua Tagovailoa -136
Michael Penix Jr. +102
Trevor Siemian +8000

Tagovailoa is set as the -136 favorite, an implied probability of 57.63%.

These odds could be two-fold. On one hand, there's a chance that Penix isn't ready in time from a health perspective to not only compete in training camp, but to play in the opening week. He has been adamant so far this offseason that he'll be 100% ready to go by Week 1, but whether or not that proves to be true is yet to be determined.

On the other hand, the Falcons may want to give Tagovailoa a chance to see if a new environment can return to his 2023 form when he led the league in passing yards. Things haven't gone as well for him the past two seasons, but he has proven that he can play at a high level in this league. Meanwhile, Penix has been streaky at best so far in his young career. He has completed just 59.6% of passes for 220.2 yards per game.

We still have a lot to learn between now and training camp, but according to the betting market, Tagovailoa is favored to take the first snap at quarterback for the Falcons when their season begins in Week 1.

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