'We're Close': Atlanta Falcons Run Game Eyes Return to Identity vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By definition, one's identity is who - or what - something or someone is.

For the 2022 Atlanta Falcons, an identity was clear: coach Arthur Smith's team was going to run the ball time and again, and it likely wouldn't matter whether or not the opponent knew it was coming.

The Falcons finished as the league's third-best rushing offense, averaging just under 160 yards per game on the ground. Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier broke the franchise's rookie rushing record with 1,035 yards.

This offseason, Atlanta made Bijan Robinson the highest-drafted running back (No. 8 overall) since Saquon Barkley in 2018 and returned four of five starters on the offensive line.

The only replacement came at left guard, where the Falcons started four different players due to injuries and inserted second-round pick Matthew Bergeron to fill the void.

And so, Atlanta entered this season with a legitimate chance to only improve upon last year's numbers ... but thus far, that simply hasn't been the case.

The Falcons' rushing offense is far from dissatisfactory, ranking No. 10 in the league with an average of 119 yards per game. Efficiency hasn't been a strong suit, as the group's four yards per carry slots in at No. 18.

Perhaps the biggest theme from these numbers is regression. Atlanta's averaging 40 fewer yards per game on the ground and almost a full yard less per carry.

But, why?

Smith stressed the run blocking hasn't taken a step backwards, instead pointing to strong defensive performances while praising his unit's ability to wear down opponents.

”We kind of get into some of what I call ‘ugly runs,’ then we start hitting bigger ones later in the game," Smith said. ”You tweak some things, games within games, but I think sometimes, last year too, there were some quarterback runs and some things that we were doing that opened some things up, too. That’s kind of the give and take.”

The give and take Smith referenced is his intent on evolving into a more balanced offense with a better passing game, something he feels Atlanta's made strides in this year with Desmond Ridder under center.

Last season, veteran Marcus Mariota provided Smith with a true dual threat presence at quarterback, and the results reflected that, as Mariota rushed for nearly 34 yards per game.

Ridder clocked a 4.49 40-yard dash in the spring of 2022, but his running element is something Smith feels is more of an opponent-by-opponent approach rather than something he wants to incorporate each week.

The second-year pro is currently averaging 12.5 rushing yards per contest, though he's added two scores on the ground.

So, that's where roughly 20 of Atlanta's rushing yards have gone. Factor in the Falcons are averaging three fewer carries per game, and that's another 12-15 yards. Then, of course, the entire yard less per carry that stacks up over time, and the end result is a rushing attack that's just not as dominant as last year.

Smith doesn't necessarily think this is a bad thing; he said it sometimes gets more difficult to score when you put together longer drives as opposed to hitting explosive plays.

The problem here lies in the fact that Atlanta hasn't connected on very many deep passes this season, with only one passing play going for more than 40 yards.

As such, the Falcons' offense ranks fourth worst in the NFL in points per game at 16.5 points per game, a considerable step backwards after averaging 21.5 points per game last season.

Atlanta's facing the second most eight-man boxes in the league, with opponents forcing Ridder to beat them through the air - and Smith is fine with that, as it's forcing his offense to continue working towards the balance he's desperately chasing.

“Just give and take," Smith said. "As we're trying to evolve, I think we've been able to move the ball pretty good through the air. We're going to continue to evolve. We didn't stop running it. If they want to pack in there, which everybody is going, you have to prove that you can go the other way.

“Why force 45 runs when you have other ways to move it? That's why you want to be balanced.”

Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone reiterated similar sentiments, with Atlanta cognizant that defenses are coming up and loading the box.

But Smith actually countered both he and Ragone's point about heavy boxes, noting it's "so miscalculated" due to schematics, and he faced similar numbers as the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans and would still run for 200 yards.

"Some people are playing eight-man box and they’re buzzing out and post-snap playing some two, trying to get some single-high run fits in there, whether it’s pressures that could be eight-man, depending when you’re counting it in there," Smith said.

The Falcons' commitment to growing more balanced has become clear in recent weeks, as Ridder has passed for 329 and 307 yards, respectively, along with three touchdowns - but also three interceptions.

Atlanta's offense has taken off along with it, posting consecutive 400-yard performances for the first time since the end of the 2018 season.

But while the yards have been there, points haven't - the Falcons have just 37 points in the last two weeks, good for 18.5 points per contest and only two points above the season average.

Smith singled out turnovers and critical mistakes as the key roots behind the lack of points, and he feels cleaning up those errors is the next step for the offense.

But regardless, Smith's attention is on a broader scale, and he believes the recent steps taken will only make the Falcons offense better moving forward.

"When you’re continuing to expand in the passing game, that certainly benefits you in the long run," Smith said in the aftermath of Sunday's 24-16 loss to the Washington Commanders. "We never abandon (the run). Sometimes there might be some ugly runs early. I would argue that we kind of wore them down, but it also helps your protection.

"If you just go back and you go 45 straight drop backs, it’s going to be pretty brutal.”

With problems determined and numbers stated, the last thing left to address is simple - how can the Falcons get their rushing offense back to last year's level?

For starters, it doesn't seem like Smith is particularly invested in mirroring last year's success, largely because he wants the passing game to be at a much higher level.

Nonetheless, Atlanta's eyeing improved efficiency, and lightening boxes is perhaps the most logical way to accomplish that.

How's this done? A plausible solution is to hit more deep shots - and Smith was quick to point out the recent trade acquisition of receiver Van Jefferson, who's proven successful as a field-stretching target and brings an element of verticality Smith believes wasn't present beforehand.

Ridder nearly connected with Jefferson on a deep ball against Washington, and if they're able to hit one soon, it'll only help open up lanes in the running game.

“Yeah, I think when you’re talking about backing people off, safeties or whatnot," Smith said when discussing the value of deep shots. "Certainly, it does help because you have to know the guy can launch it 60 yards, and you have a guy (in Jefferson) that can legitimately go get it.”

The Falcons remain a team built on physicality and winning the line of scrimmage. Smith's a former offensive lineman and has long valued trench play.

This ideological evolution to open up the passing game isn't getting away from those core values, even if it may feel that way at times. Instead, it's done with hopes of strengthening them, creating more alleys for the likes of Robinson, Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Frustration stems from the simple fact that it's Week 7, and the identity that grew so reliable last year hasn't been present since a 211-yard rushing performance against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.

But with Ridder's confidence and production growing, a new piece in Jefferson offering a downfield threat and an offensive line starting to play at a higher level, the Falcons are optimistic about getting back to that identity sooner rather than later.

"I think we’re close," Ragone said. "We look at ourselves, we understand how teams are trying to play us. But we think we’re close and we’re going to continue to rely on the fundamentals, continue to believe what we believe, and go out there and play with great energy and continue to rely on our fundamentals.”

Up next on the schedule for the Falcons are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the winner of Sunday's 1 p.m. kickoff inside Raymond-James Stadium getting sole possession of first place in the NFC South.

In Smith's first game against Tampa Bay as Atlanta's coach, the Falcons mustered only 55 rushing yards on 20 carries. Over the past three meetings, Atlanta's recorded 121, 151 and 171 yards on the ground, respectively.

With stakes high, Smith's offense will be put under the microscope - and the biggest question in need of answering is whether an identity emerges underneath the lens.