Falcons Michael Penix Jr. Lands Near Bottom of Recent ESPN QB Rankings

The Atlanta Falcons use of a first-round pick was rated low compared to other quarterbacks taken over the past few seasons

This QB has not been the best investment by the Falcons compared to other picks so far | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons made a franchise-defining move in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting quarterback Micahel Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick. So far, that choice hasn’t stacked up well compared to the rest of the league’s recent quarterback selections.

Since 2021, 17 quarterbacks have come off the board on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller recently ranked all of them from best to worst, as prospects, projecting where each of them would go if they were all in the same draft class. 

Miller even added Fernando Mendoza, the quarterback of the Indiana Hoosiers, who is widely projected to be the No.1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, into the mix to see how he stacks up against the recent crop of first-round signal-callers.

Falcons fans are not going to like where Penix was ranked, coming in at No.16 out of the 18 quarterbacks listed. The only players below him were Jaxson Dart (selected 25th overall in 2025) and Kenny Pickett (selected 20th overall in 2022). 

The biggest reason Miller had Penix so low, despite a National Championship appearance during the 2023 season, was the injury concerns. 

“Penix’s stock would have been higher, but there were concerns about him having four straight season-ending injuries and his age (24),” Miller wrote. 

Penix spent the first four years of his collegiate career with the Indiana Hoosiers. He played 20 combined games in those years, tearing his ACL twice and suffering season-ending shoulder injuries, one to each shoulder. Penix transferred to Washington ahead of the 2022 season.

The left-handed quarterback found far greater success with the Huskies. Penix led the nation in passing yards per game in both 2022 and 2023 and threw for more than 30 touchdowns in each season, compiling a 25-3 record as a starter. 

He finished second in the Heisman race in his final collegiate season, with 292 first-place votes, completing 65.3% of his passes for an NCAA high 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns en route to a National Championship appearance against Michigan.

Penix showcased a cannon of an arm in his two full seasons with the Washington Huskies, averaging more than 8.0 yards per attempt in both seasons, and the Falcons took him in the top 10 with a plan: sit and learn behind veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. However, that plan shifted quickly. Cousins’ late-season struggles in 2024 forced Atlanta’s hand, pushing Penix into the starting role sooner than expected.

Now, the ranking is just that, a projection of what evaluators thought at the time, and in the case of Penix, it’s fair. Miller said he would have had the quarterback much higher, if not for the warranted injury concerns. Regardless, pre-draft prospects no longer matter; what counts is what Penix becomes in Atlanta.