Why Signing Malik Willis Would Be a 'Crazy' Mistake for Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are entering the 2026 offseason with some question marks at the quarterback position, but one popular solution with some fans is Atlanta native Malik Willis.

The soon-to-be former Green Bay Packers quarterback is in line to hit a major payday on the open market. Several insiders have even speculated that Willis could land a contract north of $30 million with a quarterback-needy franchise. A vocal minority in Atlanta has listed Willis as one of their top options, but one NFL Hall of Famer has thrown some cold water on those wishes.

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Former quarterback turned NFL analyst, Kurt Warner, sees the potential cost as a “crazy” investment for a franchise to make given the overwhelming lack of production.

“Took a break from draft prep to dive into #MalikWillis tape over the last couple of years, being that he is one of the hottest names as we head into Free Agency!” the former quarterback wrote on his social media page. “My conclusion is that there are really 28 dropbacks (I took out screens, quick pick-n-stick throws at 5 yards & quick scrambles) over the last 2 years that will determine his future! That is crazy to think about if we are talking $25-30mil/year! #StudyBall coming, so you can come up with your own opinions & assessment!”

Willis, 26, just finished the fourth year of his NFL career with just 155 career attempts, but is somehow being included as one of the top available free agents this offseason. Since being picked up by the Packers in 2024, he has appeared in 11 games (three starts) and thrown for 972 yards and six touchdowns. He has also added 261 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

However, according to Warner, the vast majority of those numbers came on screens, quick scrambles, or ‘pick-n-stick’ throws. The expected points added per dropback are strong (+0.74 against the Ravens in Week 17 and +0.61 against the Bears in Week 16), but he was not asked to do much in either of those games.

Willis did look steady in his relief appearance and subsequent start for an injured Jordan Love, but that has been the only good look at him. Are his six starts enough of a sample size to fork over a massive contract this offseason?

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Other quarterbacks who are earning around what he is asking for have started 86 (Baker Mayfield), 83 (Geno Smith), or 73 games before signing their current deal (Sam Darnold). All three of those players had reached a Pro Bowl and led their teams to the playoffs.

Some might remember the Matt Flynn offseason in 2012. The situations are not entirely the same, but he was another player who entered free agency (from the Packers, no less) with just a handful of starts to his name. The Seattle Seahawks then offered him a major deal, but he was quickly beaten out that summer by an upstart Russell Wilson.

No two stories are ever the same, but the early portions of Willis’s career resemble that of Flynn. Paying that much money to a quarterback without any track record could end up being a monumental mistake.