New York Giants Open as Steep Underdogs vs. Buffalo
The New York Giants’ disastrous opening stretch to the 2023 season took an even deeper nosedive at the hands of the Miami Dolphins in Week 5, as the home team paraded to a whopping 524 yards of total offense to send the Giants home with a 31-16 defeat and a 1-4 record overall.
So it is no surprise that the Giants, a 12.5-point underdog heading into that matchup last week against Miami, have fallen even further in the eyes of the odds makers ahead of New York's Sunday night game against the Buffalo Bills.
According to FanDuel, the Giants enter the Week 6 primetime bout with their interconference foe as a massive 14-point underdog. The opening line is currently tied for the largest margin in the NFL’s slate for the upcoming weekend, but more notably, stands as the third largest spread gap for New York dating back to October 2017.
After putting up just 16 points and turning the ball over three times in Week 1, Buffalo has rallied 37 or more points in three of their last four contests, including the 48 points they laid on top of the Dolphins one week before they hosted New York. In the same span, they have stifled opposing offenses from having much success through the air and allowed less than 20 points in three games.
Much of their offensive strength comes from the quarterback position with Josh Allen. Praised for his incredible arm strength, size, and mobility, there isn't an area of the field he can’t impact for the Bills. The 27-year-old stands fifth in the league in total passing production through the first five weeks at 1,407 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions, most of the latter coming in the season debut.
With the arsenal of receiving weapons at his disposal, Allen and the Bills offense are seeking their fourth consecutive 4,000-yard and 20-touchdown season under his watch. The chance to add to that feat is great against a Giants defense that finally saw some semblance of improvement against Miami in forcing opposing offenses off the field.
Per Pro Football Reference, the Bills rank third and fourth in total points and yards, respectively, while averaging 6.2 yards per play and protecting the football at an average level since Week 1. They’re also top-3 in passing yards, touchdowns, and yards per attempt this year, a stark contrast to the Giants offense near the bottom of the league in the same categories.
Meanwhile, before forcing three turnovers against the Dolphins last week, NewYork Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s defense ranked 29th and 27th in total points and yards allowed, including an average of 378 yards per game. They’ve been slightly better at keeping the opposition out of the endzone via the pass but still allow a staggering 7.4 yards per throw throughout the rest of the field.
On Buffalo’s defensive front, the team finally got back their premier rusher in Von Miller, after his long recovery from an ACL injury last season. While he wasn’t very active against Jacksonville in Week 5, the All-Pro linebacker will surely look to wres havoc on a makeshift offensive line and add to his resume that features 561 total tackles and an impressive 123.5 sacks and 27 forced fumbles.
With him and the Bills’ competitive secondary, the defense sits 12th or better in all major passing categories and third in pass rush win rate. That will hurt the Giants if they can’t get Saquon Barkley back to influence the rushing game and make the offense surpass being one-dimensional. It gets worse if Daniel Jones cannot play with a neck ailment he suffered against Miami, as even a mobile Tyrod Taylor struggled to escape the rush in his limited snaps Sunday.
Either way, the Giants have another week of tough sledding. The matchup represents Brian Daboll’s return to Buffalo since taking the head coaching job with New York, so perhaps that motivates them to bring their best this week. The clarity surrounding Jones and other players could soften the opening line a little bit as well.
The reality is the only party that has faith in them is the locker room itself, and they’ll have to earn back some respect against one of the best teams in the league to start bucking the increasing underdog trends.
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