Comparing Giants' and Bills' 5-Year Draft Histories
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In the eyes of new Giants general manager Joe Schoen, a Giants' roster that finished 4-13 last season might not need a complete tear-down despite its woeful showing last year.
"I’m not a big tear it up, rebuild – I think you can truly build a roster when you can compete for today and build for tomorrow. We’re going to do the draft, free agency," Schoen said during his introductory press conference.
"Whatever avenue we can, we’re going to continue to build a competitive roster, and we want to see progress. We’re going to continue to build with the long-term in mind as we build it, but I think you can compete today and still build for tomorrow."
The best way to build is via the draft, where Schoen will have nine picks going into April's annual selection bonanza. And given the success of the Buffalo Bills in building their franchise into a winner--a process in which Schoen was a part--the Giants would appear to be in good hands.
Let's take a look at how well the Bills have drafted over the last five years, with Schoen and general manager Brandon Beane running the show, as compared to the Giants' success (or lack thereof). This exercise takes each draft class and breaks it down into starters, backups, players on other teams, practice squad, and out of the league.
The data shown in these charts are accurate as of the end of the 2021 regular season. For current starter information, we consulted the depth charts at Ourlads.
Bills
Buffalo Bills 5-Year Draft Chart
The Bills have had 37 draft picks over five years, and of them, they've gotten 13 starters --35 percent of their class. Nine players (24.3 percent) have moved on to other teams, but only two (5 percent) didn't pan out.
According to Pro Football Reference's Weighed Approximate Value (wAV) metric, which, according to the site, is used as "a way of balancing peak production against raw career totals" (for more information on this metric, visit this page), the Bills have an average wAV of 11.17.
Since 2017, the Bills have had one draft pick (cornerback Tre'Davious White, R1, 2017, chosen four picks after the Giants selected tight end Evan Engram) named first-team All-Pro. They've also had three draft picks--White, quarterback Josh Allen (R1, 2018), and offensive lineman Dion Dawkins (R2, 2017)--who are Pro Bowlers.
Day 1 (Round 1): Can we say "home runs"? In three out of their last five drafts, the Bills have held the first-round pick in the bottom half of the league, have produced two Pro Bowlers in quarterback Josh Allen (2018) and White (2017), with White being a first-team All-Pro.
Their average wAV metric in the first round is an impressive 36, the rest of their first-rounders over the last five years being defensive lineman Ed Oliver (2019, named to the NFL All-Rookie Team) and inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (2018), both starters.
Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3): The Bills have an average wAV of 12.1 on Day 2 of the draft, which breaks down to an average of 13.4 in Round 2 and 11.2 in Round 3.
But don't let those numbers fool you as six starters--offensive tackles Dion Dawkins (R2, 2017) and Spencer Brown (R3, 2021), running backs Devin Singletary (R3, 2019) and Zack Moss (R3, 2020), tight end Dawson Knox (R3, 2019) and defensive lineman Harrison Phillips (R3, 2018)--have come from Day 2, a rather impressive success rate.
Day 3 (Rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7): The Bills' average wAV for their Day 3 picks comes to 5.85, which breaks down as follows:
- Round 4: 12.5--receiver Gabriel Davis from the 2020 class being the star.
- Round 5: 10.6--starting inside linebacker Matt Milano being the top pick from this round over the last five years.
- Round 6: 2.37 -- kicker Tyler Bass (2020 headlining this group.
- Round 7: 2.25 -- cornerback Dane Jackson (2020) topping this group.
In short, the Bills have done a solid job over the last five drafts in finding talent in every round.
Final Thoughts
We can glean a couple of things from how the Bills have drafted over the last five years when Schoen teamed up with Brandon Beane in Buffalo.
First, the Bills did not take a running back until Day 3 of the draft, where they got their one-two punch in back-to-back years. And four out of their first-round picks came from the defensive side of the ball; that said, with the Giants offense being worse off than the defense, I would be surprised if the offensive side of the ball isn't addressed at least once in the first round of this year's draft.
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Giants
New York Giants 5-year draft chart
Of the Giants' 38 draft picks over the last five years, 10 or 26.3 percent have gone on to be starters. The most alarming stat in this history is the number of players who have moved to other teams--11 or 28.9 percent of the five-year sample size. And as expected, the Giants' average wAV is much lower--8.0 to be exact.
Now let's look at how the Giants have done each day of the draft.
Day 1 (Round 1): The Giants had five of their own first-round picks line up for them in 2021 on offense: receiver Kadarius Toney (2021), left tackle Andrew Thomas (2020), quarterback Daniel Jones (2019), tight end Evan Engram (2017), and running back Saquon Barkley (2018). All five of those players missed time in 2021 due to injury, with Jones and Thomas landing on injured reserve (Thomas returned, Jones did not).
On defense, the Giants had one first-round pick of their own lineup as a starter, that being defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (2019). The Giants' first-rounders had an average wAV of 15.8, an average that was no doubt dragged down by the unfortunate circumstances that led to cornerback DeAndre Baker's release.
First-round hasn't been so much of a problem for the Giants, but what has been rather alarming is that the Giants haven't retained their first-round picks. This is more true outside of the five-year range this study represents.
Inside of the five years, it looks as though Engram won't get a second contract from the team, and the juries are still out on Jones and Barkley, both of whom are entering critical, make-or-break seasons this year.
The last time the Giants had a first-round draft pick voted to the Pro Bowl was Barkley in 2018. The last time the Giants had a first-round draft pick selected as a first-team All-Pro was in 2011, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.
Of the last five Giants; first-round picks, the best of the bunch has been Thomas, who had a solid season in 2021 but finished as Pro Football Focus's 17th best offensive tackle among those who took at least 50 percent of their team's snaps.
The worst pick of the last five years is Engram, a vastly talented young man who is a hard worker but who has struggled with many aspects of his game despite earning a Pro Bowl berth in 2020.
These include his hands (29 career drops, 12 pass targets that have turned into interceptions), contested catch rate (34.4 percent), blocking, and separating (4.3 YAC average, tying him for 31st among tight ends targeted at least 30 times last year.
Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3): The Giants had had four Day 2 picks on both sides of the ball lining up as starters, including RG Will Hernandez (R2, 2018), outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter (R3, 2018), outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari (R2, 2021), and safety Xavier McKinney (R2, 2020).
They've had mixed results with Day 2 pick over the last five years. Ojulari and McKinney both look like keepers, but the same can't be said of Hernandez, who signed with Arizona in free agency. The Giants also were unable to retain Dalvin Tomlinson, who had been a solid player for them, a mistake we think came back to haunt them given some of the run defense struggles of the past year.
Despite the mixed results for the long-term, the second round has been a winner for the Giants in terms of wAV. Those picks have an average wAV of 43.5, which is by far the best on the team.
As for their third-round picks, that's been a primarily fruitless round for the Giants. The jury is still out on cornerback Aaron Robinson (2021), who missed a large chunk of his rookie season with injuries.
Tackle Matt Peart (2020) couldn't beat out Nate Solder for the starting right tackle job once he got healthy. Now thanks to a late-season ACL injury it's probably not a stretch to say his 2022 season is ominous at best, especially if the Giants go out and sign a UFA tackle or use a premium draft picks on one.
Outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter (2019) flashed as an edge rusher, but to say he did enough to warrant anything more than a 1-2 year contract at best is a stretch. However, there remains a chance that some team with cap space will fall in love with his length and production sample size to offer him a new deal.
Outside linebacker Oshane Ximines has turned into a bust, defensive lineman B.J. Hill (2018) was traded before his rookie deal even ended (to the Bengals for center Billy Price), and quarterback Davis Webb (2017) was cut after one season (though now he's back with the team to compete as Daniel Jones's backup).
Some might even agree that the last time the Giants had a truly worthwhile third-round pick was in 2008 when they picked receiver Mario Manningham out of Michigan with the 95th overall pick.
Regardless, there's little doubt that the Giants record over the last five years has been abysmal when it has come to the third round.
Day 3 (Rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7): The Giants had one pick (inside linebacker Tae Crowder, R7, 2020) turn into a starter but have otherwise had an average wAV of 3.7 for their Day 3 picks.
That doesn't mean that the Giants haven't gotten some decent value on Day 3. Defensive back Julian Love (R4, 2019) has been a find for the defensive secondary, given his versatility.
The Giants also lucked out with running back Wayne Gallman (R4, 2017) last year when Saquon Barkley missed the season with a torn ACL. And receiver Darius Slayton (Round 5, 2019) has been a steady contributor when healthy.
Final Thoughts
There's no question that the Giants haven't drafted well in a long time, though to be fair, the jury is still out on the 2019, 2020, and 2021 classes. This is likely due to a combination of overvaluing talent (a problem in the previous regime as evidenced by the overspending of free agents like Nate Solder, Jonathan Stewart, and cornerback Adoree' Jackson, to name a few).
The lack of stability in the coaching ranks--the two-year turnover with the coaching staffs necessitated hitting the re-set button and no doubt played a part in compromising the development of several players who were crying out for consistency.
By going outside of the organization for their new front office leadership, the Giants have finally acknowledged that their old way of doing things wasn't working, especially when it came to the draft. And while we won't know if the new regime's way of doing things will be any better, it's hard to imagine things getting any worse.
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