Determining RB Saquon Barkley's Market Value

Let's look at Saquon Barkley's potential market value and if he has a legitimate case in reportedly seeking in the $16 million APY neighborhood.

Author:
Patricia Traina
Publish date:
Feb 2, 2023 8:00 AM EST

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New York Giants

The New York Giants want running back Saquon Barkley back. And Barkley wants to be back.

But as usual, the almighty dollar is the holdup in making the desire of both sides come true.

According to a report, Barkley's camp rejected a contract offer made during the bye that would pay him an APY of $12 million per year, which would put him in good company with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon.

Instead, Barkley, who told reporters on the Giants' exit day that he wasn't looking to re-set the market at his position, is reportedly seeking to be paid on par with Christian McCaffrey ($16 million APY).

That stance would certainly support general manager Joe Schoen confession during his year-end press briefing that the two sides "were off on the value" and that both sides, when they discussed a new contract during the team's Week 9 bye, "weren’t really that close."

So what is Barkley's value? Is it on par with McCaffrey?Let's look at how he's stacked up in certain key statistics with McCaffrey.

Rushing

In total rushing yardage, Barkley had a clear edge over the 49ers running back. In 40 games, Barkley has amassed 4,249 yards (106.2 yards/game), whereas in 75 games, McCaffrey has 4,726 yards (63.1 yards/game).

In 2022 (including postseason), Barkley topped McCaffrey in rushing yards, 1,426, and 12 rushing touchdowns to 1,377 yards and ten rushing touchdowns. But this is about where Barkley's advantage ends.

According to Pro Football Focus, McCaffrey had a much better yards-after-contact average (3.09) than Barkley's 2.75. McCaffrey, in 2022, also forced seven more missed tackles (48) than Barkley (41) in 44 fewer rushing attempts and recorded more first-down runs (73 to 66).

Receiving

The biggest discrepancy based on production--and why the Giants should not even think about paying Barkley an APY on par with McCaffrey--is in the receiving game.

McCaffrey, a polished route runner, finished 2022 with 34 more pass targets than Barkley, catching 83.6 percent of his pass targets to Barkley's 78 percent.

McCaffrey also had six receiving touchdowns, whereas Barkley didn't have any, and he had half the dropped passes (three) than Barkley (six) and a far better contested-catch percentage (44.4 percent to 28.6 percent). And McCaffrey also forced 21 missed tackles as a receiver to Barkley's nine.

The bottom line is if Barkley's representatives are going to make a case that he should be paid on par with McCaffrey, the production needs to be a lot closer in both the running and receiving games.

Does Barkley Have Leverage?

The short answer is no. Even if the Giants don't get a deal done with quarterback Daniel Jones in time to use the franchise tag on Barkley, the Giants seem to have a walk-away price in mind if Barkley's side refuses to meet them in the middle.

But let's say the Giants get Jones's new deal done, and they use the franchise tag on Barkley. Although the tag would allow both sides to continue negotiating up until July 15, if Barkley's agent refuses to insist he be paid closer to McCaffrey, he would have no choice but to play for the $10.091 million running back franchise tag.

But Could Barkley Hold Out if He's Tagged?

Sure, but doing so would go against everything he's said so far about loving the game of football after missing it during his ACL injury and wanting to be back with the Giants.

If Barkley were to hold out, he'd not only lose a year's worth of service, he wouldn't be able to go anywhere if tagged unless another team was willing to give up two first-round picks to acquire him.

There is a drawback for the Giants in that once the tag is assigned, that money automatically gets deducted from their available salary cap space.

If Barkley and the Giants were to remain at odds over a multi-year deal, they could apply the franchise tag again in 2024 if they feel he can still give them another solid season.

So What Is Barkley's Worth APY?

As noted, the Giants reportedly offered Barkley a contract with an APY of $12 million per year, which puts him in decent company that includes a two-time league rushing yardage champion (Henry).

For inflation purposes (given that the cluster of running backs earning $12 million APY signed their respective deals in 2020 or 2021), the ceiling for a Barkley deal should land somewhere in the $13 million APY range, well above the $10.1 million franchise tag for a running back.

Beyond that, we just don't see the Giants breaking open the bank for a running back who, assuming he were to get a minimum three-year deal, would be 29 years old by the time he were to complete that contract.