Kadarius Toney Can Help the Passing Game in This Key Statistical Area

The New York Giants are counting on Daniel Jones to take a significant leap forward in Year 3 of his development. While there are many criteria the coaching staff wants to see Jones improve in, one of the critical areas—and one that rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney can help contribute to—is in cutting down interceptions.

Adjusted Interception Rate

Football Outsiders has an advanced metric known as the Adjusted Interception Rate. This statistic tracked all the interceptions thrown by the quarterbacks, regardless of who was at fault.

It then uses a formula that considers the number of interceptions thrown by the quarterback as appearing on his stat line minus any “desperation throws” (e.g., Hail Mary pass attempts or end-of-game interceptions).

The formula also adds in interceptions that came off of tipped passes, but not those tipped and dropped. At the end of the equation is the adjusted interception rate.

Daniel Jones in 2020

Last year, Jones was credited for ten interceptions thrown, but based on the criteria, he should have had two more were it not for two balls being tipped and dropped by defenders. According to the formula, those two would elevate Jones to an adjusted interception total of 12.

But to be fair, tipped interceptions are often more on the receiver than the quarterback, who can’t be blamed if a receiver alligator-arms a pass or doesn’t win a contested ball situation. And Jones certainly had his fair share of those scenarios last year.

According to Pro Football Focus, tight end Evan Engram led the Giants tight ends and receivers with six pass targets that were picked off. Not surprisingly, Engram also had the lowest contested-catch win rate (19%) of the group.

While an argument could be made that Engram’s deployment in the offense didn't necessarily optimize what he does well, a counterargument could be made that if the ball is within reach, you have to come down with it since it’s your job.

Engram wasn’t the only receiving target at fault. Now former receiver Golden Tate, who for years boasted winning the contested catch rate as a strength in his game, finished with a 50% win rate, with one pass target intended for him having been intercepted.

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And Darius Slayton, who between his performance and an assortment of lower-body injuries that affected him more than anyone let on, finished second behind Engram in both most pass targets intercepted (2) and lowest contested catch rate (31.8%) among the Giants receivers and tight ends.

In all fairness to the Giants receiving targets and to Jones last year, the adjusted interception rate doesn’t take into account those plays where a receiver ran the wrong route, or the defender just made a good read and jumped the route.

But what this does tell us that when it came to fitting balls into tight windows, which quarterbacks need to do on occasion, Jones, who was tied for the league lead with Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Las Vegas’ David Carr in tipped interceptions with two, needs more support.

How Kadarius Toney (and the other Newcomers) Can Help

The Giants' infusion of talent in its receiving corps should help Jones in numerous ways, including helping him to cut down on his interceptions thrown.

New tight end Kyle Rudolph has a career contested-catch win rate of 51.9% and has only been on the receiving end of 12 interceptions throughout his entire career (with no interceptions against him in the last two seasons).

New X-receiver Kenny Golladay’s numbers are even better, as he has a contested-catch win rate of 60.2% and has only been on the receiving end of eight interceptions in his four-year career.

And rookie first-round pick Kadarius Toney, despite still being relatively new to the receiver position, achieved a 50% contested catch win rate in college, with just three pass targets going for interceptions.

That’s all very encouraging for Jones, who will more often than not need to put the ball into a tight window where only his receiver, who may or may not be surrounded by some unwanted company, can get it.

While Jones showed signs of improvement in that area last season, this is something he’s going to need to continue showing if he’s to finally quell any lingering doubts about his suitability to be the Giants franchise quarterback for the long-term.

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