Why the Giants Will Beat the Cowboys, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
Happy game day, New York Giants fans!
After months of waiting to see how the 2023 edition of the Giants' roster will turn out, we now have answers regarding who will line up where for the team.
But what we will soon find out is if this collection of talent, which on paper is much better than the first team assembled by general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll, is better equipped to stand toe-to-toe with the better teams they'll face on their schedule this season.
What better test for the Giants than to face the Dallas Cowboys? The Giants (23-31-1 on Sunday Night Football) are looking for their second straight opening day win since 2009-2010,
Games against the Cowboys are always electric, and this one figures to be no different. The Giants, facing the Coboys for the 14th time on Sunday Night Football, have not defeated a Dak Prescott-led Cowboys team since 2016. If they can do so, they will also even the regular season series against Dallas in MetLife Stadium, where the Cowboys currently hold the advantage, 7-6.
Which team will come out on top? Read on!
Why the Giants Will Win
I'll give you one key matchup on each side of the ball that I see as potentially being in the Giants' favor.
The first is the Giants running game vs. the Cowboys run defense. Last year, the Cowboys finished 22nd against the run, allowing an average of 129.3 rushing yards per game. And while this is a brand new year, one might argue that the Cowboys didn't do much to upgrade their run defense, instead putting their resources to the back end of the defense.
Therein lies an advantage for the Giants. If they can get Saquon Barkley going and slip in a few designed running plays by quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants can chew up the clock. That would keep Dallas's offense off the field and potentially tire out a Cowboys defense on a day when the temperatures could go as high as 78 degrees.
For what it's worth, Barkley has two 100-yard rushing performances against Dallas, the last one coming in 2019. Last year, the Giants finished 11th with an average time of possession of 30:13. If they can pick up where they left off, it could make for a long, drawn-out night for their visitors.
The second matchup I happen to like? The Giants' red zone defense vs. the Cowboys red zone offense. Dallas led the league last season in red-zone scoring in 2022, boasting a 71.43 percent scoring success rate once inside the opponent's 20-yard line and a whopping 85 percent success rate on goal-to-go situations.
The Giants' defense was no slouch when defending the red zone. New York finished fifth, allowing opponents to score 49.21% of the time. But when it came to goal-to-go, the Giants tied for 12th, allowing opponents to score 69.23 percent of the time.
That said, the Giants have beefed up their defense from front to back for this year to better hold up against speed and power. If they continue being spoilers in the red zone and on goal-to-go situations, the game could end up much closer than we think and in the Giants' favor.
Why the Giants Will Lose
The top concern many people have about the Giants' chances is the offensive line. The Cowboys last year didn't blitz nearly as much (25.6 percent) as the league-leading Giants (39.7 percent) did, but the Cowboys did manage to have better production when they did, achieving pressure on 25.6 percent of the time versus the Giants' 24.3 percent.
In particular, the Giants need right tackle Evan Neal to be much better than he was last year in his one game against the Cowboys when he, per Pro Football Focus, allowed five pressures and three sacks in 54 pass-block snaps.
To be fair, he was playing on the right side last year after playing left tackle in his final year of college at Alabama. He also dealt with a knee issue that probably messed up his technique a little more than he would like to admit. But he sought to work out other flaws in his game, notably balance issues and hitting his landmarks, for the coming year.
But this isn't just all on Neal. The Giants' offensive line struggled last year with picking up stunts. They have a rookie center in John Michael Schmitz. And while there is a lot of optimism about what Schmitz brings to the table, expect Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to try to set that young man's hair on fire with his creativity.
The other concern about this game? The Giants will likely have two rookie cornerbacks, Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III, playing quite a bit in this game. They're also projected to be moving Adoree' Jackson down into the slot to deal with Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Jackson is no stranger to playing snaps in the slot, having done so on 228 snaps over his career with the Titans, where he allowed 32 of 48 pass targets to be complete for 535 yards and 2 touchdowns over that span.
The Giants apparently think that Jackson, in certain situations, can give them a competitive advantage in the slot against an opponent's No. 1 receiver, and this summer, he looked good playing that role. Will that continue, though, against different competition?
Prediction
I haven't even mentioned the fact that the Giants' pass rush -- outside linebackers Azeez Ojualri and Kayvon Thibodeaux, defensive linemen Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, and situational pass rusher Isaiah Simmons--is going to face a banged-up Cowboys offensive line whose left tackle (Tyron Smith) and left guard (Tyler Smith) has been ailing all week (Tyler Smith is listed as doubtful for the game).
Nor have I mentioned that Cowboys safety Donovan Wilson (calf) is doubtful and that Malik Hooker was just added to the injury report as questionable with an illness.
That being said, I'm not expecting a shoot-out, but I think it will be close with the Giants getting their 2023 campaign off on the right foot.
Giants 27-Cowboys 24
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