Constructing a New Contract for Saquon Barkley

If nothing else, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley will be assured $10.1 million in guaranteed money if he signs the franchise tag offer currently on the table.

But as far as the long-term is concerned, it's unwise for Barkley to settle for that type of deal for several reasons, the biggest of which is there are no guarantees that he'll have anywhere near as close to the type of season he had last year when he accounted for 29 percent of the team's total yards on offense.

There are two reasons for this. First, it would not be surprising if Barkley's contribution to the total yards decreases now that the Giants have added more playmakers to the roster--including running back Eric Gray, who could end up as part of a running back committee approach.

The second and bigger reason for some early skepticism regarding what Barkley might contribute has to do with health. This is a player who has had a spotty injury history and who has missed time.

While he gutted out a shoulder ailment last year to play in 16 of the games for which he was active (the coaches rested him in the regular-season finale) if Barkley is even thinking about playing the upcoming year on the tag with visions of not only topping last year's numbers but hopes that the Giants won't be able to tag him again given the others they have coming up for contract renewals, that's a ballsy gamble to take.

The simple fact is that Barkley can only control so much--how he trains and prepares for the season. He cannot control injuries, and for proof of that, look at his torn ACL that happened on grass or his high ankle sprain suffered in a game against the Cowboys when a player accidentally stepped on the back of his foot.

The answer is to finish a multiyear deal by the July 17 deadline. It's not an arduous task, but it will take some give and take from both sides. So let's dive into the details--what each side has to give and what a possible deal could look like.

What the Giants Have to Give

The Giants reportedly put two offers on the table to Barkley, one at the bye worth an APY of $12.5 million and one before the start of free agency in which they reportedly offered $13 million APY with a chance for the deal to reach $14 million with incentives.

Both deals would have put Barkley in the top five highest-paid running backs. Yet the player rejected both deals for whatever reason--the guaranteed money, the structure, the incentives, or something else.

Meanwhile, the running backs market, which, per former agent/current salary cap expert Joel Corry, has continued to decline. The Giants, meanwhile, pulled all offers from the table after they applied the franchise tag to Barkley and are back to square one with negotiations.

The Giants need to put the latter offer made to the running back on the table. Yes, it's more than the going market rate--Miles Sanders, formerly of the Eagles, received a deal averaging $6.35 million from the Panthers. Still, anyone basing what Barkley should get on what Sanders received is making a huge error.

Sanders contributed 1,347 of the Eagles' 6,614 total yards last season, or 20.3 percent of the total offensive output. In contrast, Barkley, who has a far better skill set, contributed 1,650 of the Giants' total 5,676 yards on offense, or 29 percent.

The bottom one is that if the Giants were willing to pay Barkley a deal that averaged up to $14 million in incentives, that deal needs to be returned to the table. Failing to do so is a bad look for the team and one that could be interpreted as an insult to a player who has been a solid citizen both in and out of the locker room and who has pretty much been the offense when healthy.

What Barkley Has to Give

Figuring out Barkley's thinking is a little trickier because we don't know why he rejected the two offers. What we do know, courtesy of a tweet by his agent, Kim Miale, is that reports of the running back wanting up to $16 million are not true, which confirms what Barkley said at the end of last season when he told reporters he wasn't looking to re-set any markets which would have meant topping the $16 million APY Christian McCaffrey gets.

That said, Barkley's rejecting a deal worth up to $14 million is a head-scratcher. If he's not looking for $16 million APY, does that mean he and the Giants are only off by $1 million?

Probably not. The most likely reason for Barkley having rejected the Giants second deal probably lies in how the contract was structured, specific to guaranteed money. My guess is that it's the "fully guaranteed at signing" part that likely is the problem.

Money "fully guaranteed at signing" means the player will collect money regardless of what happens. We saw how Kenny Golladay collected a roster bonus this year that had been "fully guaranteed at signing" despite the fact he was cut back in March.

The "fully guaranteed" vehicle is a dangerous tactic to throw into a contract, as the Giants found out, but sometimes it's a tactic that helps push a deal across the finish line.

Again, not knowing what the Giants presented to Barkley makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions. That said, if Barkley wants a lot more than the Giants are willing to give in terms of guarantees, which I suspect could be at play given his injury history, that's where he might need to meet the team halfway.

What Might a New Deal for Barkley Include?

We're still learning about how Giants general manager Joe Schoen approaches aspects of salary cap management, contracts, etc. Fortunately, some early trends are emerging this year thanks to the extensions given to Daniel Jones and Dexter Lawrence that could provide hints into what the Giants might be willing to offer Barkley.

The first is a six-figure signing workout bonus. Jones and Lawrence each received $500,000 per year, so there is no reason to think Barkley won't be offered the same.

A roster bonus will probably be included toward the end of Barkley's new multiyear deal. Lawrence will collect a $2.5 million roster bonus if he is still on the team in the final year of the deal (2027), while Jones will collect $500,000 (suggesting that the final year of the deal likely won't happen, but I digress).

Given Barkley's injury history, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Giants include a per-game roster bonus incentive as another easy way to earn more money. Jones doesn't have that in his deal (surprisingly), but Lawrence, who has never missed a game due to injury, does.

A per-game roster bonus would help the Giants out, and any games that Barkley missed would be credited against their cap.

The other thing to note is the first two years of the deals. Jones has $82 million guaranteed in the first two years of his deal, which is roughly $11 million more than the $71.3 million he would have received had he been tagged this year ($32.4 million) and next year ($38.9 million), he would have earned $71.3 million over the next two years.

The same holds with Lawrence, whose full guarantee at signing is $46.5 million but whose guaranteed money can reach $55.753 million by 2025. Lawrence would have counted for $12.407 million had he played out the option year. The franchise tag for interior defensive linemen next year is $20.878 million, so the Giants game Lawrence a bump in the first two years of the deal with the full guarantee.

Lawrence doesn't appear to have any performance incentives in his deal, whereas Jones does--individual incentives for specific players can be found in Article 13, Section 6 of the CBA. But it's almost a given that Barkley will get some performance incentives--the CBA allows for total yards, average yards based on 100 minimum attempts, and rushing touchdowns for running backs--in his deal.

What Would the New Contract Look Like?

Thus far, the Giants have not given out anything longer than a four-year deal to any free agent, regardless of whether it's their own or from another team. There is no reason to think that will start with Barkley, who might get a four-year deal where the fourth year is a "dummy" or "voidable" year only to help spread the signing bonus.

Working off the Giants' last reported offer of $13 million with the chance to top $14 million, here is how we'd structure the deal.

Some notes about this structure:

1. The average APY comes to just under $14 million, reportedly the max APY of the last contract offer Barkley was said to have rejected.

2. The incentives are all LTBE (likely to be earned) which means they'd count against the current cap year.

3. At no point does Barkley's total cap number exceed 8.2 percent of the projected cap.

4. The franchise tag amount for a running back in 2024 is estimated to be $13.717; thus, ensuring that the second year of Barkley's deal covered that amount was important.

5. I didn't include a roster bonus for Barkley in the first year of the deal since I have him down for a $20 million signing bonus.

6. I made the final year a voidable one, as I believe the Giants will follow a similar structure to allow for the signing bonus to be spread out. As you can see, the dead money in the final year of this proposal only counts for an estimated 1.6 percent of the team's total cap.

7. There is no workout bonus in the first year of the deal, as I suspect that if a deal is done, this year's off-season program will be well in the books, making it impossible for Barkley to meet the required 80 percent threshold.

8. The per-game roster bonus is $58,823 per game, with a max earning up to $1 million. The full amount must be counted since this would be an LTBE incentive (likely to be earned).

9. Thanks to the voidable year, one could argue that this deal's APY is $18.526 million. But that is an optical illusion since the APY is based on the entire length of the deal, regardless if there are viable years.

10. It's not reflected in this graphic, but besides the signing bonus, I'd guarantee the first two years of Barkley's base salaries and the 2024 roster bonus (obviously). That comes to about $34.580 million in guaranteed money, or 62.2 percent of the total contract.

And if I needed to further sweeten the pot, if Barkley is on the roster in 2025 to collect that $2.5 million roster bonus, I would designate that as a trigger to guarantee at least half of his P5 (base) salary, therefore further boosting the total Barkley will pocket.

Final Thoughts

Barkley has said he wants to remain a Giant. The Giants have said the same thing. That right there puts them more than halfway toward making it happen.

But in addition to the money needing to be competitive, this hardline stance the Giants seem to have adopted with pulling deals off the table must also be curtailed. Barkley isn't getting any offers from around the league.

At the end of the day, he's smart enough to know that a multiyear deal with at least 60 percent guaranteed is a lot better than the tag's one-year guarantee worth a $10.1 million deal.

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