Pro Football Focus Predicts Giants' Option Year Decisions

The May 2 NFL deadline for teams to decide whether to pick up the option year of their 2019 first-round draft picks is fast approaching, and Pro Football Focus's Brad Spielberger has made his recommendations for all 32 teams.

And his recommendation for the Giants, who must decide on two players, quarterback Daniel Jones and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, might surprise you.

Let's look at what Spielberger thinks the Giants will do with both Jones's and Lawrence's option years.

QB Daniel Jones

Fifth-year option amount: $22.384 million
PFF Prediction: Exercise

Here's what PFF had to say:

Historically, if a first-round quarterback shows even a glimmer of hope that he could become a franchise leader, this would be a very easy decision for clubs. If the quarterback subsequently bombed in his fourth season, the team could get out of their obligation barring a severe injury. Now, teams must tread very carefully. If we were writing this article under the old rules, it would have been a fairly easy “exercise” answer here. The Giants' front office and ownership have publicly expressed a lot of belief in Jones becoming a franchise quarterback, but we’ll know how they really feel in a month. Jones’ 73.1 passing grade since 2019 ranks a respectable 23rd among quarterbacks, but a neck injury prematurely ended Jones’ 2021 season, and his 49 turnovers (interceptions plus fumbles) since 2019 are the fourth-most in the NFL over the span. The Giants own the Nos. 5 and 7 overall picks in this year’s draft, but if they aren’t fond of any of the top quarterback prospects, this decision remains one of the more challenging for any team.

Verdict: Disagree

The simple fact that the Giants haven't given up on Jones after three injury-filled seasons tells us one of two things. They either strongly believe in Jones (which both ownership and the new general manager and head coach combo of Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have professed), or they drafted Jones way too high and are trying to save face.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. As team co-owner John Mara said earlier this off-season, Jones hasn't had the best set of circumstances in which to succeed, and without question, the lack of stability in the coaching, not having a solid and competent offensive line, and waiting to get weapons have all been factors in his slow development.

But on the other hand, a case can be made that the Giants over-drafted Jones, whose skill set doesn't exatly align with that of a top-10 quarterback. For one, some of Jones' throws outside of his first reads have left people pulling their hair out in frustration over what it was the quarterback thought he saw.

This ties into how quickly--or in this case how slowly--he is processing what he sees out there after the snap.

Second, there is the injury factor. Like it or not, Jones has missed games in three straight seasons, qualifying for injury-prone status. The fact that he doesn't protect himself as a runner doesn't exactly inspire confidence that will change any time soon.

And third, there is his history at Duke, which has followed him to the NFL regarding ball security issues. In three seasons at Duke, Jones fumbled 19 times, losing 13 of them. And he tossed 29 interceptions during his career, right about the same number of interceptions he's thrown in three NFL seasons.

Ideally, a team wants to see progress from a premium draft pick. While a case can be made for Jones having made some progress in certain areas, the biggest ones, such as ball security and reading defenses, remain a problem for him three years into his NFL career.

Spielberger is right in saying that it's unlikely the Giants will grab a quarterback in the first round this year, and we don't know what the future holds for 2023 if the Giants decline Jones's option and look to draft a quarterback next year.

The Giants did protect themselves in signing Tyrod Taylor to a contract that can easily be adjusted to accommodate if he becomes a starter, so there's zero pressure on them to exercise Jones's option.

If Jones does ball out, the Giants could always use the franchise tag on him next year, as they would probably look to get the first year of Jones's new contract as low as possible.

If they exercise his option year, they are locked in for the $21+ million, which instantly becomes guaranteed against their 2023 cap.

And we still need to see what, if anything, the Giants do regarding trades to acquire more draft capital should they have to jump up to get a quarterback.

DL Dexter Lawrence II

Fifth-year option amount: $10,753,000
PFF Prediction: Exercise

What PFF had to say:

The second of two fifth-year option decisions for the Giants comes at a less impactful position than quarterback — and for less than half the price tag as well. Lawrence was drafted with the first-round pick New York acquired from the Browns in exchange for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and the young nose tackle has hit the ground running, as he has played as well as they could have hoped for in his first three seasons. Over the last two seasons when lined up inside the offensive tackles, Lawrence’s 48 quarterback pressures ranks third. He’s a disruptive presence on the interior against both the run and pass.

Verdict: Agree

I could see the Giants' exercising Lawrence's option year to be more of a realistic scenario than Jones's for a couple of reasons.

First, Lawrence's projected guaranteed rate of $10.735 million would put him right about where former Giants defensive lineman B.J. Hill, who just signed a new deal with the Bengals, is for 2023 ($10,833,333)--right in the middle of the pack.

Second, unlike Jones, Lawrence has been a sturdy player in that he has yet to miss a game since being drafted. His consistent availability right there makes him a bargain at that rate.

Third, the defensive line could be headed for more changes. Leonard Williams is entering the final year of his contract next year, and there's no assurance he'll be kept on to finish that deal unless he has a better year than he had in 2020 when he did enough to earn that monster deal, to begin with.

This year's draft class is said to be deep in defensive line and pass-rushing talent, so certainly, if the Giants wanted to build for the future and shed some of those grossly overpaid contracts, this would be a good opportunity to do so.

Shedding Williams' contract would yield a whopping $18 million on next year's cap. If the Giants do as is expected, which is to draft a nose tackle and add some pass rushers, it makes more sense for them to keep the younger Lawrence next year at roughly 50 percent of what it would cost to keep Williams.

Historically, the Giants have let young defensive line talent walk out the door. That trend needs to stop, and with the change in management, perhaps this will be the year that it does.

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