Decision Day: What We Know and Don't Know About Saquon Barkley Contract Talks

The countdown is on to Monday's 4 p.m. deadline for the Giants and Saquon Barkley to get a new long-term contract done, which would avoid Barkley having to play on the $10.1 million franchise tag.

So let's quickly sort out what we know and don't know, and what it all means.

What We Know: Barkley Added to His Representation Team

Ever since coming into the NFL in 2018, Barkley's contract matters have been repped by agent Kim Miale of Roc Nation Sports, the same agent who has been advising Barkley going back to last year's bye week when the running back rejected a multi-year offer reportedly worth $12.5 million per season, and an offer reportedly worth $14 million per year that was rejected just before the franchise tag deadline.

With no progress having been made--remember, general manager Je Schoen mentioned after the draft that he'd check in again with Barkley's representation--the running back has taken the somewhat unorthodox step of adding another adviser from a different agency.

According to NFLPA records, Ed Berry from CAA, the agency that reps Barkley's marketing interests, is now part of the football contract negotiating team, along with Miale. The move was made somewhere around mid-June.

Pro Football Talk reported that the Giants aren't starting from square one, given the new addition to Barkley's team (not to mention that the window is closing). That is no surprise, as the Giants aren't going to suddenly scrap the framework of an offer already on the table just because a new face suggests that be the case.

While some have questioned the wisdom of having "too many cooks in the kitchen," it's worth noting that the single cook wasn't getting the meal out to the table. With Miale and the Giants presumably going back and forth, the hope is that perhaps Berry can bring a new perspective to the table that finally breaks the stalemate.

What We Know: The Guaranteed Money is the Sticking Point

Barkley has repeatedly said that he's not looking to re-set the market for running backs but wants a fair deal. And at the end of the day, a fair deal comes down to guaranteed money.

Various reports have claimed that the Giants have offered anywhere from $19.5 million to $22 million in guaranteed money. But none of those reports have differentiated between "guaranteed at signing" and "fully guaranteed."

The latter category is the more important for a player with Barkley's injury history. "Fully guaranteed" money means that the running back will collect the payout regardless of whether he is on the roster.

This was the case this year with receiver Kenny Golladay, who collected a roster bonus despite having been cut by the team in March because the roster bonus was "fully guaranteed."

At the risk of moving off the "what we know" category here with Barkley, a logical guess is the fully guaranteed money is the sticking point given his injury history and the short shelf life of a running back, especially one who has only completed two full seasons in his five-year career.

What We Know: The fully guaranteed money needs to be at least $22 million

That is the estimated sum of the two franchise tags for this year and next. To expect Barkley to take anything less is just not practical. To believe the Giants lowballed him in this regard is to not have the entire picture.

If you look at what the Giants did with Daniel Jones and Dexter Lawrence, each both the sum of the two franchise tag amounts at their respective positions plus a little extra. It's hard to believe that the Giants wouldn't make the same offer to Barkley.

According to Over the Cap, the top three running back contracts in terms of fully guaranteed money are 49ers Christian McCaffrey ($30,062,500), Titans Derrick Henry ($25.5 million), and Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson ($21,958,544). Citing a league source, Pro Football Talk reported that the Giants offered Barkley a deal with $26 million over the first two seasons, presumably fully guaranteed money, but not made clear.

And let's say for argument's sake that the report of the Giants offering Barkley $22 million is true. Does anyone think he'd be happy with the same guaranteed money as a rookie (Robinson) who has yet to take an NFL snap?

From the Giants' perspective, they might not want to go much further than Henry's fully guaranteed total considering how Henry has a couple of league-rushing titles. In contrast, Barkley has yet to accomplish that in his career.

Still, the most likely outcome here is that Barkey's deal will likely have to fall somewhere between McCaffrey's and Henry's deals in terms of fully guaranteed money to break this stalemate.

What We Know: Perceptions of Value Vary

Usually, when two sides in a contract negotiation are far apart, that's a sign that each doesn't view the principle in quite the same way.

In this instance, the Giants have assigned a value to Barkley based on the running back market--a value that Barkley doesn't quite agree with.

"I think that's when you have honest and open conversations. You take the feelings out of it," assistant general manager Brandon Brown told reporters last month. "You're able to establish common ground. It doesn't mean you're going to agree, but that's what I appreciate about him. He can listen, and he can digest the information we're giving him, and he can tell us his feelings as well."

Barkley is more than just a running back--he can catch balls out of the backfield and be a mismatch against linebackers and defensive backs, which gives the Giants an added dimension to deploy in their offense. He's also improved as a blocker over the years.

But at the end of the day, the position listed next to his name is "running back," and the market just hasn't been kind to those who share that same title. To prove that, look no further than Zeke Elliott and Dalvin Cook, both of whom were cut by the Cowboys and Vikings, respectively, and remain unsigned as of this writing.

What We Don't Know: How Does Barkley Define "Setting the Market"?

Barkley, as already noted, has said that he doesn't wish to re-set the running back market, yet there continue to be reports of him wanting $16 million per year, same as McCaffrey, which would contradict those statements.

So what is Barkley talking about when he says he doesn't want to re-set the market? Many people seem to be assuming the APY, but again, the APY means nothing because it's a number that can be easily inflated with incentives and other mechanisms.

The only logical guess here is the fully guaranteed money, which, again, McCaffrey reigns supreme in that category. From Barkley's perspective, his team can argue that McCaffrey has had his share of injury issues as well, which, while true, is only part of the overall picture, which also needs to consider overall production.

What We Don't Know: Will the Deal Get Done?

This is the question on everyone's mind. I don't blame Barkley for trying to get as much as possible. But that said, I think if he rejects the Giants' best offers, he's playing with fire for several reasons.

One, if he ends up playing on the tag this year, he's only guaranteed money for 2023.

Two, the team can use the franchise tag on him again next year unless, as part of his posturing by holding out of camp and threatening to sit out the season, he can convince the Giants to throw in a clause to his franchise tag offer in which they promise not to tag him again.

Three, if Barkley does play on the tag and he gets hurt, he can kiss any chance of finally getting a chance at a huge payday (assuming the Giants agree not to tag him again) down the tubes.

For those reasons, I think both sides will give in a little at the end of the day to make this deal happen. Because if they don't, then I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming season ends up being Barkley's last with the Giants.

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