What's Next for Giants, Saquon Following Failed Negotiation?

The New York Giants and running back Saquon Barkley each publicly expressed their desire to remain with one another. But at the end of a months-long soap opera that included leaks on contract negotiations that incorrectly painted Barkley as greedy and unreasonable, the two sides couldn't get things done by the 4 p.m. deadline on July 17.

Not that they didn't try. Barkley took the unusual step of adding additional representation from CAA, a different organization than Roc Nation, who had been his primary agency, to his negotiating team, hoping that a new perspective might break the impasse.

Such, however, was not the case. Barkley told reporters last month at his football camp that he was irked by the contract leaks that made him look greedy, and he strongly implied that the guaranteed money was the sticking point rather than the APY.

The Giants, meanwhile, continued to insist that they wanted Barkley for the long term, that they expressed their feelings to him and told him how much they valued him.

But when push came to shove, talk was cheap. Regardless of how close or far apart the two sides were by the deadline, the deal didn't get done, and the ramifications of the deal not being consummated could have negative effects across the board.

Let's look at what went wrong, the fallout, and what's next for both sides.

What Went Wrong

All along, the belief has been the Giants, and Barkley did not see eye-to-eye o the guaranteed money part of the deal. For a deal to have been consummated, it would have taken at minimum $22 million fully guaranteed, which is the total of the 2023 and 2024 franchise tags for a running back.

Per various reports, the Giants offered Barkley as much as $22 million. However, it was never fully clarified whether that was total or fully guaranteed money (see this article for an explanation of the difference).

But truth be told, even $22 million wasn't going to get it done because, as I explained in this article, BArkley's fully guaranteed money would have probably had to fall somewhere between what Christian McCaffrey received ($30 million) and what Derrick Henry received ($25.5 million).

The $22 million that was reported would have put Barkley on par with rookie Bijan Robinson, whose full $21.9 million rookie deal is fully guaranteed. From Barkley's perspective, that wouldn't be enough to get it done, given that Barkley is more established at this point in the league than Robinson.

Another potential fly in the ointment might have been how Barkley and the Giants viewed the running back. To the Giants, Barkley's position is running back--and we all know how the market for running backs has tanked over the last several years.

But in Barkley's defense, perhaps his side viewed him as much more--a running back, a blocker, and a receiving threat not just out of the backfield but someone who could line up in the slot and out wide to create mismatches against the defense. Barkley proved himself capable of doing that as a rookie when he logged a career-high 91 receptions on 121 pass targets for 721 yards, an average of 7.9 yards per route.

The Giants didn't deploy Barkley as much as a receiver last year, Barley averaging 5.9 yards per route run and being targeted just 76 times (57 receptions). And with the Giants adding more depth at receiver and tight end, perhaps this pattern was set to continue this year as well.

The Potential Fallout?

The first one that comes to mind is the Giants' salary cap. Had New York managed to get a deal done with Barkley, his $10.1 million franchise tag number almost certainly would have been cut by at least 50 percent.

That would have been good news for a Giants team that currently has just $3,824,536 in space, enough to get them through the summer--but not enough to get them through the summer and regular season without having to rework another contract at some point if the money they recoup after training camp cuts are made doesn't put a dent in things.

There is also a matter of the depth chart. The Giants are going into training camp one running back shy, though the team did work out USFL Offensive Player of the Year Mark Thompson on Tuesday as a potential option.

Another concern that may or may not exist is how the failed negotiations are perceived in the locker room. Barkley is universally loved and respected by his teammates. He is a locker room leader and a team captain.

And if word of the Giants' offer should leak out, which is very likely, and that offer turns out to be viewed as a low-ball offer, what kind of message would that be for some in the locker room to see a well-respected and loved teammate low balled?

Along that vein, don't be surprised if the topic of Brkley is posed to the players and coaches consistently, at least until the running back reports, though expect the Giants to look to ward off any potential distractions that might result from such questioning.

What's Next?

The short-term answer is that we shouldn't expect to see Barkley at training camp next week when the veterans report on July 25. Now that the deadline has passed, Barkley's lone remaining leverage is to try to convince the Giants to agree not to slap the franchise tag on him again next year.

The Giants, however, still hold all the cards in that they can decline such a request. Barkley might currently have hurt feelings, but he's not foolish enough to sit out the entire season, giving up a weekly salary one excess of $545,000 just because his ego is bruised.

The Giants have already indicated that they'd be fine with Barkley playing on the franchise tag, and it's clear now that they meant it since they didn't blink.

Might the Giants look to move Barkley if his unhappiness becomes a major issue? Probably not, but come next year, if the two sides can't play nice on a deal, we could see the Giants engaging in a tag and trade if Barkle has another solid and productive season.

Who Stands to Lose More?

It's Barkley, and it's not even close. If he gets hurt and misses any time, his hopes of a solid financial future earned from playing the game he loves go down the tubes.

Considering how the running back market has continued to plummet, it's hard to envision him getting the type of offer he expected from the Giants, which never came.

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