Why Giants Will Beat the Commanders, Why they Won't, and a Prediction

The Giants can take a big step forward toward locking up a playoff berth if they can best Washington.

The New York Giants Week 15 game at the Washington Commanders will probably be as close to a postseason atmosphere as both teams will experience thus far.

And what good practice for the winner, who, while not guaranteed a playoff berth with a victory, will gain the head-to-head tiebreaker in the division should both clubs end up with the same won-loss record.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Giants' chances of getting into the postseason increase from 52 percent to 90 percent with a win over Washington. But if they lose, those chances drop to 35 percent.

Taking things a little further, if the Giants lose against Washington and the Vikings but beat the Colts, they will have a 41 percent of making it into the postseason. And if they win their next three games (Washington, Minnesota, and Colts), the Giants are in.

Confused yet? Yeah, it's a lot to take in. That's why head coach Brian Daboll's approach--take it one game at a time--makes the most sense versus worrying about multiple what-if scenarios.

So let's do that and focus on this week's big NFC East showdown, which, if the giants win, would be their first against a division opponent this year.

Why the Giants Will Win

Despite the ramifications of the outcome, this is just the next game on the Giants' schedule. That's the message head coach Brian Daboll has been trying to impress upon his team to keep them focused on what they can control versus worrying about things that are still down the line.

The Giants need to get their running game going again. After posting a 152-yard rushing performance on 35 carries against the Texans if the Giants' last win, Saquon Barkley has 205 yards in 73 carries in five games, a 2.8 yards per carry average, which simply isn't going to cut it.

Although some might point out that Washington figured out how to neutralize Barkley, it also didn't help that the Giants ran him only seven times in the first meeting. 

The silver lining to the Giants' decision to limit Barkley to just 20 snaps last week against the Eagles (due to a shoulder/neck issue) might work in the Giants' favor if Barkley comes in with fresher legs and ready for a heavier workload. 

The other factor to watch is which of the two quarterbacks--Daniel Jones for the Giants and Taylor Heinicke for the Commanders--makes the fewest mistakes. In the first meeting, both quarterbacks had a fumble. 

In the end, Heinicke brought his team back from a 20-13 deficit to tie the game. In contrast, Jones and company couldn't add to their lead to seal the win partially due to mistakes like the Jon Feliciano taunting penalty that cost them precious field position for a field goal try.

Limiting mistakes will be key, but so will finding out which of the two quarterbacks can elevate his team now that it's crunch time.   

 Why the Giants Will Lose

The Giants had hoped that cornerback Adoree' Jackson (knee) might be ready to go for this game, and with good reason. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Commanders destroyed the Giants cornerbacks, completing 13 of 17 pass targets against Zyon Gilbert, CorDale Flott, and Fabian Moreau.

Moreau mainly drew receiver Terry McLaurin in coverage, who caught five of seven passes for 74 yards, four first downs, and one touchdown. While that isn't necessarily a sign of what's to come should Moreau draw the assignment again, if you're the Commanders, you likely feel good about a possible rematch, not to mention that McLaurin won his other pass-catching opportunities against others who drew him in coverage.

The other concern is that Washington's defensive front versus the Giants offensive line. In the first meeting, quarterback Daniel Jones was under pressure on 30 percent of his dropbacks, 20 percent of those coming via a blitz. Not bad, right?

Last week, however, the offensive line's pass protection was a sieve, allowing pressure on 54.5 percent of Jones's dropbacks, which is not a surprise considering the Eagles have the best pass-rush win rate as a team (54 percent). On the other hand, Washington has a pass-rush win rate of 41 percent (19th)--not an ideal matchup for a Giants offensive line that ranks 29th in pass-blocking efficiency (82.3 percent).

Prediction

First, the loser of this game won't be eliminated from postseason consideration. However, whichever team comes up with the short stick will have a steeper hill to climb to get into the seven-team postseason tournament.

That said, these two teams are about as identical as can be, their Week 13 meeting showing as much. Despite the Giants' struggles in primetime games and the fact that Washington is coming off a bye and is at home, I think the Giants, who, in my estimation, took the tie two weeks ago a little harder than Washington, buckle up and take care of business in a low-scoring, close game. 

Giants 19, Commanders 17

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