Mock Draft Roundup: McShay Projects a New Player to Jaguars at No. 1

'Tis the season for mock drafts, a yearly tradition in which media attempt to project how the second-biggest day on the NFL calendar plays out.

As we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NFL Draft, we will be tracking how other national media outlets are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to attack the draft and build around 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

The Jaguars still have a long way to go before deciding on the No. 1 overall pick in April, including figuring out their future direction at both head coach and general manager.

But until then, we can continue to debate the merits of the Jaguars' options at No. 1 overall and what the Jaguars could ultimately decide to do.

So, what is one potential scenario for the Jaguars at No. 1 overall? In this edition of Mock Draft Roundup, we take a look at what long-time ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay projects at No. 1 overall and what it could mean moving forward.

No. 1: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan

With the Jaguars placing the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson on Tuesday afternoon, it has become clear that national analysts are set to make a huge pivot at No. 1 overall. The most commonly mocked position to the Jaguars at No. 1 has been offensive tackle all offseason long, but expect to see a major change now that the Jaguars have over $16 million committed to Robinson for 2022.

"I thought hard about NC State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu here even after the Jaguars put the franchise tag on Cam Robinson on Tuesday, but that move means Jacksonville will be paying Robinson $16.6 million in 2022. Would the Jags commit that kind of money to the position and then still draft a tackle when they have the chance to instead bring in the best prospect in the class?" McShay wrote.

With both Robinson and Walker Little under contract, plus 2019 second-round pick Jawaan Taylor entering a contract year, it already seems like the Jaguars have too many tackles and not enough slots to fill. As such, seeing them add an offensive tackle at No. 1 when they have three options already on the roster would be rather fascinating and unlikely, at least based on logic.

Hutchinson played in just three games in 2020 due to a fractured ankle that prematurely ended his season. He recorded 15 tackles and one pass deflection in those contests before a monstrous senior season that saw him finish second in Heisman Trophy voting as he was named a consensus All-American. During the 2021 campaign, Hutchinson recorded 14 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and three pass deflections.

"Hutchinson can be a franchise cornerstone on defense," McShay said. "He racked up 14 sacks and 66 pressures last season, his 6.73-second three-cone drill shows incredible short-area burst, and he is the most technically efficient pass-rusher in the entire class. A pairing of Josh Allen and Hutchinson would torment opposing quarterbacks."

Our View

I doubt we will be moving off of this for the rest of the offseason. While we entered the offseason with Evan Neal as the top option for the Jaguars' at No. 1, it just seems like their moves to this point have been that of a team who is prepared to attack the pass-rush at No. 1 overall.

There is enough depth at edge rusher in this draft that Baalke and the Jaguars shouldn't be forced into picking Hutchinson, but what seems more likely: that they draft a left guard at No. 1 overall or that they draft a pass-rusher to pair with Josh Allen and sit ahead of Dawuane Smoot and K'Lavon Chaisson on the depth chart?

If the Jaguars were to draft Ikem Ekwonu or Eval Neal, there is a real chance they would play guard as a rookie. What do the Jaguars gain in the long-term by playing the No. 1 pick at guard and not letting either him or Little develop at left tackle? As a result of all of this, it makes no sense to project any player but Hutchinson to the Jaguars.

Perhaps Georgia's Travon Walker, Notre Dame's Kyle Hamilton or Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux could be slotted here, but Hutchinson seems like the far and away favorite based on draft stock trajectory, his production and combine performance and the traits general manager Trent Baalke has placed an emphasis on in the past.

“I think anytime you can add a pressure player to your team on the defensive side … If you look at my track record in San Francisco with what we did there relative to the edge pressure, that is a positive," Baalke said at the combine. "This draft happens to be a good draft. There is going to be depth into the second and even the third round in terms of acquiring those types of players.”

Unless the Jaguars make some kind of major addition along the defensive line in free agency, it seems the Jaguars are set to add Hutchinson at No. 1 and hope he can continue the dominance he showed in 2022.