If the Jaguars Trade Up in the Top-10, What Does Recent History Suggest It Would Cost?

In a little over a week, the 2020 NFL Draft will officially kick-off. While there will be no crowded green rooms or players trotting across the stage to fist bump commissioner Roger Goodell this year, there should still be an expectation for draft day drama.

In recent years, the draft's first round has been a breeding ground for blockbuster trades. Whether it is the No. 1 overall pick being dealt or one of the 31 following picks, there is usually a big shakeup at some point which creates a domino effect that resonates throughout the rest of the league.

In most cases, teams move up in the draft for a quarterback. But in the case of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020, it appears much more likely that if the Jaguars wanted to trade up, whether it be from No. 9 or No. 20, they would prefer to make a move for a playmaker at wide receiver or in the secondary or a stalwart on the offensive or defensive line.

With 12 picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, and nine in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars are in a prime position to make a day one deal for a player they covet. The scenario that would make the most sense would be for the Jaguars to move up from No. 9 to an earlier pick in the top-10 to secure Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. With a massive need at cornerback across from Tre Herndon and D.J. Hayden, the Jaguars could justify forming a blockbuster trade to nab the top cornerback in the draft class.

Jacksonville could still fill its other needs throughout the roster with its abundance of picks, so a move up the board wouldn't cripple the team's short- or long-term draft plans. But what would one of these scenarios look like in reality?

To get a firm grasp on the answer, we have reviewed each of the trades in the top-10 of the last six drafts. This gives us some recent context to work with since many of the general managers from 2014 remain in 2019 and the valuation of top-10 picks has remained generally the same since.

For clarity's sake, we aren't including any trade twice. For example, if a team traded away a top-10 pick for a first-round pick in the top-10 in the following year, we are only counting the original year the trade was made. For example, this means we wouldn't include the Browns selecting Denzel Ward with the Texans' No. 4 overall pick in 2018 because the original trade took place in 2017. When the Texans made this deal, they had no way of knowing it would be the No. 4 pick, and it ended up this way more out of luck and circumstance, so it would be hard to compare it.

With that said, here are each of the trades made in the top-10 since 2014, and what it could mean if the Jaguars want to make a trade up for Okudah or another player such as Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons or Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs.

2014:

Cleveland traded No. 4 overall to Buffalo in exchange for Buffalo's 2014 first-round selection (No. 9 overall), and their first and fourth-round selections in 2015. The Bills took Sammy Watkins with the No. 4 pick following this trade.
Minnesota traded No. 8 overall to Cleveland in exchange for the No. 9 overall pick, which Cleveland acquired from Buffalo, and a fifth-round selection (145th). The Browns took cornerback Justin Gilbert with the No. 8 following this trade.

The trade the Bills and Browns engaged in is a good parameter for what a trade for Okudah would likely cost. Okudah could go anywhere in the draft following pick No. 2, meaning the Jaguars would most likely have to move to No. 3 or No. 4 to lock him up. In this instance, such a move from No. 9 overall cost two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick. With four first-round picks over the next two drafts and multiple picks in this year's fourth round, this is a trade the Jaguars could easily make with the Detroit Lions or New York Giants.

2015:

None.

2016:

Titans traded No. 1 pick to Rams. Tennessee traded its first-, fourth-, and sixth-round selections (1st, 113th, and 177th) to Los Angeles in exchange for Los Angeles's first-round, two second-round, and third-round selections in this year's draft (15th, 43rd, 45th, and 76th) along with Los Angeles's first- and third-round selections in the 2017 NFL Draft. The Rams took Jared Goff with the No. 1 pick following this trade.
Cleveland traded No. 2 overall and a conditional fifth-round selection in 2017 to Philadelphia in exchange for Philadelphia's first-round, third-round, and fourth-round selections in this years draft (No. 8, 77, and 100 overall), along with Philadelphia's first-round selection in the 2017 NFL Draft and a second-round selection in the 2018 NFL Draft. The Eagles took Carson Wentz with the No. 2 pick following this trade.
Cleveland traded its first- and sixth-round selections (No. 8 and 176) to Tennessee in exchange for Tennessee's first- and third-round selections (No. 15 and 76) and a 2017 second-round selection. The Titans took Jack Conklin with the No. 8 pick following this trade.

None of these picks offer a good model for the Jaguars since the Rams and Eagles each moved up for quarterbacks and had to pay a hefty cost in order to do so. We did see the Titans move back up into the top-10 from seven slots back, and it cost them a first-, third-, and second-round pick in order to do so.

2017:

San Francisco traded a first-round selection (No. 2) to Chicago in exchange for Chicago's first-, third-, and fourth-round selections (No. 3, 67, and 111) and a third-round selection in 2018. The Bears took Mitch Trubisky with the No. 2 pick following this trade.
Buffalo traded a first-round selection (No. 10) to Kansas City in exchange for Kansas City's first- and third-round selections (No. 27 and 91), as well as a first-round selection in 2018. The Chiefs took Patrick Mahomes with the No. 10 pick following this trade.

Neither of these trades serves as a good model since the Bears had to move up only one spot, and the Chiefs moved up all the way from the back-end of the first round. Whoever trades with the Jaguars, however, would likely be able to keep a pick in the top-10 via the No. 9 pick.

2018:

Indianapolis traded a first-round selection (No. 3) to the Jets in exchange for the Jets' first-round selection (No. 6), two second-round selections (No. 37 and 49), and a second-round selection in 2019. The Jets took Sam Darnold with the No. 3 pick following this trade.
Tampa Bay traded first- and seventh-round selections (No. 7 and 255) to Buffalo in exchange for Buffalo's first-round selection (No. 12) and two second-round selections (No. 53 and 56). The Bills took Josh Allen with the No. 7 pick following this trade.
Oakland traded a first-round selection (No. 10) to Arizona in exchange for Arizona's first-, third-, and fifth-round selections (No. 15, 79, and 152). The Cardinals took Josh Rosen with the No. 10 pick following this trade.e

Each of the first two trades on here makes sense for the Jaguars to look to. If the Jaguars want the Lions' No. 3 overall pick, they would likely have to give up even more than the Jets did in 2018 considering they pick at No. 9 instead of No. 6. This trade featured swapping firsts and the Jets sending a whopping three second-round picks to the Colts, so the Jaguars would reasonably have to include their original first and at least two second-round picks, with potentially their No. 20 overall pick included. The trade between the Bills and Buccaneers also saw multiple second-round picks be dealt as a team moved up in the top-10, so that appears to be the market price.

2019:

Denver traded a first-round selection (10th) to Pittsburgh in exchange for Pittsburgh's first- and second-round selections (20th and 52nd) as well as their third-round selection in 2020. The Steelers took Devin Bush with the No. 10 pick following this trade.

If the Jaguars want to trade up from No. 20 into the top-10, this is a good trade to reflect on. It doesn't provide much clarity for the No. 9 pick, however.

Overall

In short, it isn't a cheap endeavor when it comes to trading up in the top-10. It normally constitutes a blockbuster deal with either multiple first-round picks, or a handful of second-round selections.

If the Jaguars wanted to move up for Okudah at either No. 3, 4, or 5, they could look to the Bills' trade for Watkins from No. 9 overall, which cost two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder. Ideally, the Jaguars could package No. 9 and No. 20 this year along with a third-round pick or multiple fourth-rounders in an effort to jump up a few spots for the elite cornerback.

The Jets' trade for Darnold is also one to look at, as it at least provides a precedent for what a move into the top-3 costs. The Jaguars would have to give up even more than the Jets did in most logical scenarios, however.

As a whole, any deal the Jaguars could potentially make to trade up would acquire multiple premium picks. They have the draft ammunition to do so, but it could still be a tough pill to swallow considering the holes on the Jaguars' roster.