2023 AFC South Rankings: Who Falls Behind Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence in QB Hierarchy?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking to make team history in 2023.
The last time the Jaguars won back-to-back divisional titles was in 1998 and 1999, when the AFC South wasn't yet formed. The Houston Texans weren't a franchise and the Jaguars shared the AFC Central with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Oilers/Titans, and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Since the Jaguars' migration to the newly-formed AFC South in 2002, the Jaguars have won two AFC South titles in 2017 and 2022. While every other franchise has won back-to-back divisional titles at some point in the division's history, the Jaguars will be looking to do it for the first time this season.
In our preview of the Jaguars' search for another AFC South title, we are going to do a list of rankings of the top positions and units in the division ahead of the 2023 season.
First up: the quarterback position.
So, which team has the best projected starting quarterback for 2023 and which teams are lagging behind? We break it down below.
No. 1: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
This one is obvious, at least after the 2022 season. Lawrence had a breakout season in 2022, completing 66.3% of his passes for 4,113 yards, 25 yards and just eight interceptions. Lawrence should be even better in 2023, too, since it will be his second year in Doug Pederson's system, his second year with familiar targets like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Plus, he is getting a big boost in the form of Calvin Ridley,
Last year, Lawrence ranked top-8 in DYAR, DVOA, effective yards, interception %, ANY/A, Sack %, and success rate, while also finishing top-10 in EPA/Play and CPOE. Lawrence did it all last year, and there are still plenty of reasons to think that 2023 could completely overshadow his sophomore success.
No. 2: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
There is no question that Ryan Tannehill has done a lot of good during his Titans tenure. He had career seasons in 2019 and 2020, throwing 55 touchdowns with just 13 interceptions during that span. But injuries and age have caught up to Tannehill, with the soon-to-be 35-year-old missing five games last year with ankle injuries.
The question now is how well Tannehill can rebound, especially with the Titans moving to a new system and play-caller. The Titans won't make it easy on him, though, with limited options at wide receiver. Still, Tannehill's floor should be just high enough to put him over the rookies behind him.
No. 3: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
There are a lot of reasons for Houston to be excited about C.J. Stroud. The No. 2 overall pick is likely a bit more equipped to enter the NFL from a consistency standpoint than most college starters who transition to the NFL. A two-year starter at OSU, Stroud posted 8,123 yards and 85 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions and won to back-to-back Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors.
With that said, the Texans have won just 11 games over the last three years and are also set to have a rookie offensive coordinator and rookie head coach. Add in Stroud's own rookie setting and some weak depth along the Texans' skill groups and it is hard to think that Stroud could leap Tannehill in 2023, but he shouldn't be behind him for long.
No. 4: Anthony Richardson/Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts
I would be surprised if the Colts don't open against the Jaguars with Anthony Richardson as their starter in Week 1. In fact, most logic would suggest the No. 4 pick should be the favorite entering training camp. But there does exist a reality where Minshew starts off the year before Richardson takes over for the long haul.
In either sense, the Colts are still likely on the outside looking in for 2023 when it comes to the quarterback position. Minshew has a lower floor and ceiling than either Trevor Lawrence or Ryan Tannehill, while C.J. Stroud offers more upside.
When it comes to Richardson himself, rookies should be considered below any average NFL starter, so this more or less comes down to Richardson vs. Stroud. Richardson could potentially offer more value in the short-term due to his rushing ability, but Stroud is the more NFL-ready passer on an accuracy basis, so he is the safer bet to have a better 2023.
