5 Predictions For Jaguars Vs. Steelers: Luton Makes Final Start Before Minshew's Return

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) will face another tough test this Sunday, with the NFL's only undefeated team set to face them in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0).

The two teams have a storied history and typically play close games, but the franchises are on completely different trajectories today. As a result, a close battle like previous years maybe shouldn't be as expected as usual, but there are still a number of storylines to track throughout the bout. We break down our five predictions of those storylines here.

Jake Luton makes his final start before Gardner Minshew returns -- a result of major struggles against Pittsburgh

All things considered, one could make the argument that Jake Luton has outperformed external expectations in his two starts. The Jaguars were seemingly high on him internally, but for the most part he has played better than pundits thought he would. With this in mind, we think this comes to an end on Sunday and the wheels officially come off of the passing game against an elite Steelers defense.

Luton has played two poor defenses in his first two starts, with each missing their best cornerback in the games. In terms of passing defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), the Texans and Texans are ranked No. 22 and No. 16. Even with this in mind, Luton didn't set the world on fire. Now Luton will have to play the No. 2 DVOA pass defense, which leads the league in sacks and has players at all three levels of the field that can wreak havoc. Throw in the fact that the Jaguars will be missing Laviska Shenault, and there is no reason to think Luton doesn't have a tough time on Sunday.

This should be expected since he is a rookie making his third start against an elite defense ... but it could also be what pushes Gardner Minshew II back onto the field. Minshew is not yet 100%, but he resumed throwing this past week and he is now questionable instead of an early inactive. Between his seemingly relative progress and the potential struggles of Luton on Sunday, we believe Sunday will be Luton's final start for now.

Jaguars allow 6 sacks

There might not be a bigger mismatch in this game than Pittsburgh's front seven against Jacksonville's offensive line. The Jaguars' blocking unit has had definite flashes of high-caliber play this season, but it has been up and down more often than not. Recent weeks, such as last week against the Green Bay Packers, have been trending down though. With the Steelers entering the game with the league's best pass rush and a front seven that Marrone said is among the best he has seen in the NFL, this is a dangerous matchup for the Jaguars.

Only five teams have allowed more sacks than the Jaguars this season, while the Steelers lead the league in sacks and have a legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in T.J. Watt (9.0 sacks). With the Jaguars having the league's third-worst adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders, while the Steelers have a top-10 defense in teams of adjusted sack rate. Nothing indicates the Jaguars won't be in trouble in terms of this matchup, leading us to predict six sacks for the Steelers.

James Robinson records 135 yards from scrimmage

If the biggest mismatch in Pittsburgh's factor is the pass rush, the biggest advantage for the Jaguars is their star rookie running back. James Robinson has been among the best running backs in the entire league in 2020, but his last three games have been especially impressive. The undrafted free agent turned starting running back has collected 348 yards from scrimmage in the last three weeks, an average of 116 yards per game.

With the Steelers allowing 107 yards per game to the running back position, we think the Jaguars take advantage of their relative lack of an ability to shut down rushing lanes. Add in the fact that no other running back on the active roster even has a carry this season and we think this is a recipe for a big game from Robinson, who was one yard away in Week 9 from rushing for 100 yards in each of the last three games.

Myles Jack intercepts a pass

While the Steelers will likely have the winning edge in terms of their receivers against a banged-up Jaguars secondary, we think Jacksonville will see a big game out of linebacker Myles Jack. Jack's style of play, which allows him to disrupt plays that he keeps in front of him with his physicality while using his speed to cover behind him, we think he is perfectly equipped to defend the Steelers.

The Steelers like to spread the field and distribute the ball horizontally to set up the rest of the offense. They have the skill players to win after the catch that makes them likely to attack Jack's area of the field more than a few times on Sunday. Jack always plays big games against the Steelers and we think this continues in Week 11 as the fifth-year outside linebacker intercepts Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh wins 34-17

We do not think this is a game the Steelers run away with. The Jaguars play hard enough to not just get the doors blown off of them from the start of the game. We think this happens again Sunday, with the Jaguars hanging with the Steelers for at least two quarters before Pittsburgh can create enough big plays on offense to separate themselves.

If the Jaguars didn't have a rookie quarterback behind a so-so offensive line, perhaps an upset would be more likely. Instead, we think the Jaguars keep the game close for the first half before falling behind by several scores in the second half, leading to another Jaguars loss.