5 Predictions on Evan Engram, Jawaan Taylor and Rest of Jaguars' Offseason
The Jacksonville Jaguars are entering a key four-week period after Super Bowl LVII. In 27 days, the new league year will begin and the Jaguars will ultimately know which key players they are able to retain, and which ones they will have to see walk away.
With the official start of NFL free agency coming at 4 p.m. on March 15, the Jaguars have a number of internal free agents whose situations are among the greatest questions facing the Jaguars this year.
From Evan Engram to Jawaan Taylor, which players we think are restructured and more, we offer our official predictions on the Jaguars' offseason as they enter the free pre-free agency period.
Prediction No. 1: Jaguars re-sign Evan Engram to a three-year, $40 million deal with $27.5 million guaranteed
There are a lot of factors at play when it comes to re-signing tight end Evan Engram, who had a career year in 2022 as he caught 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games.
Engram was the epitome of production for the Jaguars at tight end, solving their glaring hole at the position that has been an issue since Marcedes Lewis was released in 2018. He not only produced on the field and proved to be a good fit with Doug Pederson's scheme and Trevor Lawrence's skill-set, but he was also a home run signing as an off-field culture and locker room fit.
As a result, I think the Jaguars bring Engram back on a three-year deal with a reasonable 2023 cap hit. We will get into it below, but there is a way the Jaguars can create up to $29 million available cap space, which could give them considerable breathing room with Engram.
Perhaps the Jaguars don't reach a deal by March 7 (the franchise tag deadline) and opt to use the tag as a vehicle to extend contract talks, like they did with Cam Robinson. Ultimately though, I think Engram remains a Jaguar.
Prediction No. 2: Jawaan Taylor signs a three-year, $45 million deal with $35 million guaranteed with ... the Las Vegas Raiders
Jawaan Taylor has earned a big deal this offseason in every way. The 25-year-old right tackle has never missed a start since becoming a second-round selection in 2019, and there is a chance he still has untapped potential after he had a career-year as a pass-protector in 2022. Taylor was the Jaguars' best and most consistent pass-protector this season, showing up big against rushers such as Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Carl Lawson, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
With that said, there are enough reasons to believe it makes sense for both sides to let Taylor at least hit the open market and begin to hear what other teams have to offer him. The Jaguars have a cheap and ready-to-play replacement in 2021 second-round offensive tackle Walker Little, who started several games at left tackle down the stretch in 2022 after losing the right tackle job to Taylor in training camp. The Jaguars would likely prefer to retain Taylor, but they can afford to draw a line in the sand in negotiations because Little gives them leverage.
As for Taylor, there is a good chance he can get higher offers on the open market than he can in Jacksonville. The Jaguars could make Taylor an offer of over $10 million annually and still have some cap flexibility, but the presence of Little, as well as the Jaguars' scheme and Trevor Lawrence's ability to mask protection, means it makes sense for the Jaguars to potentially not go deep into negotiations.
As for teams that make sense for Taylor, the Raiders saw Taylor play a lights-out game against them in Jacksonville last year and have the need at right tackle. They have enough cap space to make Taylor one of the highest-paid right tackles in football, something the Jaguars may not do.
Prediction No. 3: Jaguars re-sign Arden Key to a two-year, $16.5 million deal with $12 million guaranteed
One of the most important players on the Jaguars' defense last season was unquestionably Arden Key, who signed a one-year prove-it deal with the Jaguars after a productive season with the San Francisco 49ers in 2021. While playing mostly as a rotational player and sub-package edge rusher, Key led the Jaguars' defensive line and edge rushers in pass-rush win-rate and was second on the team in pressures and quarterback hits despite not being an every-down player. When injuries hit, it was Key who stepped up.
Key would likely command a bigger deal on the open market, but the Jaguars are a known fit for his skill-set and give him a defined role and a chance to produce like a starter, something he has never found elsewhere. Perhaps he looks for greener pastures, but the Jaguars want him back and there is no reason to think he won't want to be back. A two-year deal that gives him security and the chance to cash-in again makes sense.
Prediction No. 4: Jaguars release Shaquill Griffin and Roy Robertson-Harris
The Jaguars have some tough cap decisions to make this offseason, but there are ways they can turn their $-$22,753,686 into a positive cap situation. That would probably start and end with two of their biggest and easiest cap-saving measures in releasing cornerback Shaquill Griffin ($13,147,059 in cap savings) and defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris ($7,800,000 in cap savings).
Griffin is the obvious choice here; he spent most of the season on injured reserve in 2022 after a rough first six weeks of the season, including a Week 6 performance against the Colts that was probably the worst of his career. Griffin is a better player than 2022 showed, but it makes no financial sense to keep him at his cap hit.
Robertson-Harris is a tougher one. He was a force down the stretch for the Jaguars, making impact plays throughout the playoffs and the push to the AFC South title. Plus, the Jaguars already have two impending defensive lineman free agents in Adam Gotsis and Corey Peters, but DaVon Hamilton had a big season last year and the Jaguars should hope Foley Fatukasi takes a step forward.
Still, the question would basically come down to releasing Robertson-Harris or Jamal Agnew. Agnew plays a smaller role, but his value as a returner alone should give him the slight edge.
As for the rest of the cap space, the Jaguars could restructure the following players and convert their 2023 money into signing bonus to free up enough cap space to give the Jaguars close to $30 million in available cap: Cam Robinson, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Foley Fatukasi, and Rayshawn Jenkins. This would mean the Jaguars would be tied to each player throughout their contract years (2026 for Kirk, 2025 for each of the following players). Basically, two more seasons guaranteed for every player but Kirk, and three more years of Kirk. The Jaguars could live with that.
Prediction No. 5: Jaguars re-sign Dawuane Smoot to a two-year deal with a low 2023 cap hit
My final prediction is that you see Dawuane Smoot return to the Jaguars on a two-year deal, with most of the money pushed into 2024 due to his Achilles injury. It makes sense for both sides: the Jaguars are able to potentially get Smoot back into the lineup at full-health at some point in 2023 while then getting him back in 2024, all for a discounted price, while Smoot can rehab with the team that he knows and has spent his entire career with.
While Smoot may not be ready for Week 1 next year, we have already pointed out the Jaguars need for interior rushers. Smoot has recorded five sacks in each of the last four seasons, recording 22.5 sacks in that span and often looking like Jacksonville's most consistent pass-rusher. At the time of his injury, second on the team in pressures, fourth in quarterback hits, first in sacks, and second in pass-rush win rate.
