Jaguars Mailbag: Entering the Offseason, Part 1
Throughout the offseason, we will be taking questions on the biggest questions facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.
This week we take questions on Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson and more.
Q: Will the Jags attempt to get Trevor a long-term extension this off-season? If so, what kind of contract do you think we’re looking at? Length, total money, guaranteed money, AAV, etc
A: I believed going into the season that they would. After how the 2023 season went, though, I am not so sure. I am inclined to believe the Jaguars' decision-makers have a real bone to pick about Lawrence's turnovers in 2023, though the context of said turnovers would reveal that it was an offensive issue and not a Lawrence-specific one. Nonetheless, I think the Jaguars likely pick up his option, make him play his fourth year, and then try to get him signed to a deal in 2025.
Q: What is the biggest difference between Press calling plays and Doug calling plays?
A: Hmm. This is a good question and I am not sure there is a clear answer since the Jaguars had most of the same tendencies in 2023 that they had in 2022 -- they just didn't execute as well. Pederson gets the same label for being too cute at times, too, but it seems like people had short-term memory in that regard. I personally think Pederson does a better job of sticking with the running game.
Q: Are the epa adjusted charts for line play, drops, etc accurate? If so, why are people still such morons when it comes to the only good QB we've had in a decade plus?
A: They are for drops, but not line play. The fact of the matter is that over the last two seasons, Lawrence ranks top-15 in EPA/Play (which is really an offensive stat) and No. 5 in success rate. He is a very good quarterback, but fans understandably want more after how the 2023 season went. I disagree with them, but I understand why they feel the way they do.
Q: I know you had a CB in the 1st round in your first mock draft but is this with the thought that OLine is addressed in FA? Also is this what you would do or what you expect Baalke to do? Thanks for a great season!
A: It was largely due to the fact that several offensive linemen were already picked by No. 17, but only one corner was. So the value was at cornerback, where I had my pick of the litter and could have taken one of three different players. If I took an offensive lineman, it would have been a reach. I know Jaguars fans just want an improved line and don't care about value right now, but that isn't how the draft goes. And I try to do mocks based on what I think the team would do; I don't believe my opinion means much.
Q: It’s clear the jags need to revamp the whole offensive and defensive line(except for edges and tackles) how likely do you think it is to do all that in this offseason?
A: I think it is very likely. I interpreted Doug Pederson's vote of confidence for the offensive line as coach speak. The Jaguars know that a big reason they didn't accomplish what they wanted to in 2023 was because of how they played in the trenches, even if they won't say it at the podium. Trent Baalke has a long history of investing in the trenches in his career, and I think he will go back to that M.O. this offseason.
Q: Obviously this year was a massive disappointment. In the likely event the Jags don’t make the postseason again next season - do you see Shad finally cleaning house?
A: I am not sure. He has only fired a coach and a general manager at the same time once in his tenure as owner, and that was after a 2020 season in which the Jaguars only won one game. Khan isn't the type of owner who likes hitting the reset button, and I am curious if he would do so after a bad season in 2024 considering the Jaguars are coming off back-to-back "winning" seasons.
Q: You’re never as close and you’re never as far as you think in the NFL. That being said the Jags seem to be right in the middle. A winning record with a monumental collapse. Do you think this team is close with some tweaks and better turnover luck or do you think this is trending towards the Colts of 22 or Chargers of 23?
A: I don't think the Jaguars are as far off as fans may think, but they also are not nearly as far ahead as they should be by now considering the resources they have had. The Jaguars had more resources than the Lions when each team started their rebuilds in 2021, but the Lions' roster is clearly significantly better. I think the Jaguars can make the playoffs again next year with some aggressive moves, but do not think they need to sell the farm to do so.
Q: Would you rather pay 6/7 million on a guard in free agency like Runyan/Jackson or Lewis or draft a couple?
A: I would pay one guard and then look to the draft for another, though I wouldn't throw around a significant contract like the Jaguars did in 2022 with Scherff or in 2018 with Andrew Norwell. Elite guards don't hit free agency, and it just doesn't make sense to overpay for a solid one.
Q: Do you see the Jags changing their blocking/running scheme? Seems Tank and ETN are good at different schemes.
A: The Jaguars actually have one of the most diverse running schemes in the league -- they just get poor results. They have a healthy mix and balance of gap and zone runs, and it almost to the extent that they have too many running schemes and moving pieces when it comes to the ground game.
Q: Do we only give up a 3rd for Ridley if we tag him and extend him after the draft?
A: That is an opinion some hold. I truly do not think the Jaguars -- or anyone else -- really knows until it happens, but I do think there are paths to the Jaguars keeping Ridley and only having to give up a third for him.
Q: Hey John, what do you think the Jags do at left tackle next year? If it is not Walker Little then do you see him getting traded?
A: I think Walker Little starts at tackle for the Jaguars. What happens beyond 2024, I don't know, but I do think Little finally gets his chance to be an every-week starter in 2024. Cam Robinson is a good player but it just makes more sense recourses wise for the Jaguars to roll with Little.
Q: Texans and Colts look legit and have much more cap space (and better management) than the Jags. What hope do the Jags have at being the powerhouse they were expected to be when they’re in what’s shaping up to be one of the best divisions in arguably the most competitive conference in the NFL?
A: The Jaguars still have a lot of resources entering the 2024 season. They have 10 draft picks and can make more than enough cap space to be aggressive in free agency. The Jaguars have ground to make up after they didn't improve an iota in 2023, but they do have the resources on hand to keep up and catch up to their divisional rivals.
Q: Do you think Doug’s loyalty to Press could lead to their downfall next year like in his last year in Philly?
A: If Doug Pederson doesn't work out in Jacksonville, I do not think it will be because of his loyalty to Press Taylor. His loyalty to Taylor isn't the reason Pederson witnessed his offense regress in terms of details in 2023, nor is it the reason the Jaguars are weak on both lines. Taylor has become a boogeyman of sorts for the Jaguars, but they have much deeper issues they need to work out.
Q: Would you keep Cam, Jenkins and Scherff on the 2024 roster? Or is it time to move on?
A: Let's start with Cam Robinson. Robinson gets a lot of deserved love for his demeanor and the way he plays with an edge, but there a few factors at play. One, Robinson has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, nine due to injury. Robinson has been a good pass-blocker when on the field, but the Jaguars have had to turn to different left tackles often. After a year in which the Jaguars lacked continuity up front due to injuries, this might not be appealing.
Secondly, Robinson is set to carry a $21.1 million cap hit in 2024. The Jaguars save $16.1 million if they release him and only take a dead cap hit of $5 million. Factor in a cheap Walker Little waiting in the wings, and it doesn't make much financial sense to keep Robinson.
Jenkins had some strong performances in 2023, but he is another player who the Jaguars have a ready-made replacement for. 2023 fifth-rounder Antonio Johnson had a breakout rookie campaign over the final few months of the season and could easily step into a starting safety role. Jenkins carries a $12.2 million cap hit and the Jaguars could save $9 million with a post-June 1st designation.
Scherff is another one whose numbers just don't match what the Jaguars would likely get. Scherff's cap hit in 2024 is nearly $24 million, and the Jaguars save almost $16.5 million if they release him. That is simply too much money tied into a 32-year-old guard.
Just looking at the numbers and roster construction, the Jaguars should likely move on in all three cases.
