Jaguars Mailbag: Taking On the C.J. Stroud vs. Trevor Lawrence Debate

Throughout the season, we will be taking questions on the biggest questions facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.

You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.

This week we take questions on the Jaguars' free agents, Christian McCaffrey and more

Q: What do you think the current order of re-signings for current Jaguars are for next year?

A: I think Josh Allen has to be far and away No. 1, even with Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars would simply have zero pass-rush without Allen on the roster, and he has more than earned a deal.

I would have Ridley as the clear No. 2, but then things get interesting.

Got asked about the #Jaguars pending free-agents in this week's mailbag. Here is their current list ranked by snap % pic.twitter.com/UQddk1fmDK
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) November 8, 2023

I would then probably go ... Brandon McManus, Ezra Cleveland, and Tre Herndon. I don't think anyone else on that list has to be a priority re-sign, though you could talk me into Jamal Agnew based on his special teams value.

Q: What aspects of his game would you like to see Trevor Lawrence improve upon through the rest of the season?

A: Mostly just red-zone execution. Outside of his red-hot end to the 2022 season, Lawrence simply hasn't been a great red-zone quarterback in his career. This year, Lawrence has one of the lowest QBRs in the red-zone, his 52.2% completion rate is No. 20 among qualifying quarterbacks, and he has fewer red-zone touchdowns than quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young.

Part of this is due to some issues at wide receiver; the Jaguars have obviously missed Zay Jones in the red-zone, while some clear touchdowns were dropped in the red-zone in Weeks 2 and 3. Add in red-zone fumbles and interceptions from the Jaguars' offense, and this is the biggest area the offense needs to improve.

Q: The Jags come off the bye on a five-game winning streak. How many more consecutive victories can they add to it?

A: I think they have a chance at three more before things get more difficult. This week will obviously be a huge test considering the 49ers are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL despite recent results. If they can get by the 49ers this week, they have winnable games against rookie quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks with the Titans and Texans. An eight-game winning streak after a 1-2 start would be one of the best stretches in franchise history and would have the Jaguars at their same win total from a year ago.

Q: Hi, John. Do you think it's a sure thing the Jags bring back Ridley next year? Assuming he finishes healthy and at his current production.

A: I think it is more likely than not. If you let Ridley walk, then you pretty much have to take a wide receiver in the first- or second-round next year since they won't have a third-round pick. That isn't in Trent Baalke's or Doug Pederson's DNA, so I don't think they will be in the business of creating a hole that doesn't need to be made. I believe they will bring Ridley back, and his continued impact from his sheer presence alone (see Etienne's touchdown vs. the Steelers) is a big reason why.

Q: With all the hoopla on Jags twitter yesterday regarding CJ Stroud's big day, will Trevor ever get the respect he deserves? Is his seeming lack of respect because he doesn't put up gawdy stat lines? Will he always be judged by what Mel Kiper & the like labeled him years ago? Or is it just a byproduct of him being a Jaguar?

A: I think the sheer fact that Lawrence hasn't thrown a lot of touchdown passes in his career plays a big part. He had just 12 his rookie year and has just nine this year, even though the context of his rookie year coaching staff and supporting cast explains that season, and the context of the Jaguars' game scripts and some wonky misses in the red-zone explain this year's production.

Simply put, though, people will always expect Lawrence to be better numbers wise than he is. That is a direct result of his generational tag that he received coming out of Clemson, and this probably isn't going away. My advice is to focus on the fact that the Jaguars are 6-2, and Lawrence is a big reason why.

Q: Hey John, thanks for covering the Jags, appreciate your reporting. In what we have seen so far out of Calvin Ridley, do you think we look to sign him to a new deal at end of season?

A: I think the franchise tag is more in play right now than a true contract extension, but I also think what happens with Josh Allen will really determine their move with Ridley. I think the Jaguars want to keep Ridley around because he clearly impacts the offense by his presence and reputation alone, but you can't tag Ridley if you don't have a deal in place for Allen. Allen simply can't not be on this team next year, so I think the best chance of Ridley remaining is if Allen gets a contract extension before the tag deadline, resulting in a franchise tag for Ridley.

Q: Now that we have our secondary back, my worries about this game have shifted to McCaffrey. I know our run defense is staunch, but how much of a mismatch do you expect him to be against our LBs?

A: I think the Jaguars' linebackers have been one of the strengths of the defense this year, but McCaffrey is a different animal than any of the other running backs the Jaguars have seen this year. He ranks No. 6 in yards after contact per attempt, tied for first in missed tackles forced on running plays, No. 4 in yards per route. Interestingly, though, he is No. 35 in forced missed/broken tackle rate as a receiver, which suggests the 49ers are doing a good job of getting him in space as a receiver but he isn't breaking a lot of tackles.

I think McCaffrey will get his, but I also think the Jaguars will tackle and rally relatively well, just like they have all year.

Q: I know a lot of the pass rush talk is about the edge, but the interior has 0.5 sacks. I think they need an interior pass rusher or two. Your thoughts?

A: I think you are right on the money here. The Jaguars have gotten virtually nothing out of their interior pass-rush this season, which is a big reason we have seen Dawuane Smoot take so many third-down snaps inside so quickly after his return to the lineup. Sacks are a very overrated stat to judge impact, but the Jaguars are also struggling to get pressure up the middle.

Among 139 qualifying interior defensive linemen, the Jaguars' top-ranking pass-rusher in terms of win-rate is Roy Robertson-Harris at No. 62. This is behind players like Mario Edwards Jr., Jerry Tillery, and, uh, Taven Bryan. The Jaguars also have three of the bottom-12 players in this metric in Angelo Blackson, Jeremiah Ledbetter, and Adam Gotsis, while Foley Fatukasi ranks just outside the top-100.

This isn't slamming the defensive line -- they have been legitimately dominant against the run, after all. But the Jaguars' pass rush consists of Josh Allen, then a steep drop-off, then Travon Walker, then another steep drop-off.