Jaguars Mock 2021 Offseason: Who Do We Sign, Draft, and Trade For?
We’re so close.
The official start of the 2021 NFL season is just six short days away (March 17). At that point, trades will become official and the free agency period will open, with the NFL Draft (April 29) looming in the close future as well.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to be aggressive throughout the offseason in its pursuit of new players to join its new coaching staff, due to both the bounty of resources it has available and head coach Urban Meyer’s desire to make the team competitive as soon as possible:
“Other than developing culture, the most important thing is talent acquisition,” Meyer recently told Jaguars.com. “I can't imagine a more important month for the Jaguars' organization than the next month.”
As general manager Trent Baalke told media yesterday afternoon, “We’re gonna use the dollars.”
Jacksonville’s official 53-man roster will be made official in the fall, and mostly assembled by May. But for now, the depth chart is uncertain and unfilled. So, without further ado, here’s a Jaguars mock offseason guide complete with free agency signings, draft selections, trades, salary cap analysis and a full position-by-position breakdown in a preview of what the 2021 offseason could look like for the Jaguars:
Note: all contract information and projections provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.
Notable transactions
- Acquire DT Fletcher Cox in a trade from the Philadelphia Eagles for 2020 fifth- and seventh-round draft picks; re-structure $6,962,500 of $23,880,000 2021 cap hit into a signing bonus (per Spotrac estimates), leaving a new cap hit of $16,917,500. Current contract lasts through 2022.
- Trade QB Gardner Minshew to the Seattle Seahawks for a 2021 fifth-round draft pick.
- Re-sign IOL Tyler Shatley (no contract projection available- estimated $1.5 million, one-year deal based on the previous contract).
Free agents signed
- S John Johnson III ($55 million over four years)
- WR Curtis Samuel ($27.5 million over three years)
- TE Gerald Everett ($21.75 million over three years)
- QB Tyrod Taylor ($10 million over two years)
- CB Mike Hilton ($12 million over three years)
- DT Larry Ogunjobi ($2.75 million over one year).
Players drafted
- Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence (Round 1, No. 1 overall)
- Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II (Round 1, No. 25 overall)
- Iowa DT Daviyon Nixon (Round 2, No. 33 overall)
- UCF S Richie Grant (Round 2, No. 45 overall)
- Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell (Round 3, No. 65 overall)
- Notre Dame TE Tommy Tremble (Round 4, No. 107 overall)
- East Carolina LT D’Ante Smith (Round 4, No. 131 overall)
- Iowa WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Round 5, No. 171 overall)
- Mississippi State DE Marquiss Spencer (Round 7, No. 250 overall).
Salary cap breakdown
- With the 2021 salary cap officially set at $182.5 million dollars, the Jaguars will have $70,194,209 in cap space to spend after factoring in its 2020 rollover cap ($23,481,404) and Cam Robinson’s franchise tag ($13,754,000) according to Spotrac.
- The free agent class will account for an estimated total of $41.9 million dollars according to Over The Cap’s contract projections found in Pro Football Focus’ free agent rankings (assuming the 2021 cap hit is a reflection of each player’s annual salary -- however, signing bonuses and back-heavy contracts will likely make this number lower).
- The draft class will account for an estimated $6,488,387 against the cap after removing Jacksonville’s fifth- and seventh-round picks (Cox trade), accounting for the other nine draftees and removing bottom-of-roster players currently counting against the cap, according to Over The Cap's rookie pool estimates.
- Cox’s contract after restructure will account for $16,917,500 against the 2021 cap; Minshew’s contract is included in the estimated draft pool cap figure, as his roster spot will be filled by a rookie’s.
- So! After accounting for the Robinson, Cox and Minshew transactions, plus each free agent and drafted player, the Jaguars will still have approximately $4.8 million in 2021 cap space (which, again, will likely be higher as a result of lower-than-projected cap hits from the free agency class). That surplus can be used for late veteran signings and/or cap rollover in 2022.
Offense
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Rookie), Tyrod Taylor (Free Agent)
The surest transaction that Jacksonville will make this offseason is selecting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft. Pencil that one in.
Alex Smith would be an ideal backup, but if he wishes to compete for playing time or retire, Tyrod Taylor is a great QB2 candidate as well. He’s drawn strong reviews for his leadership and football I.Q. from various stops along his journeyman tour, which are obviously positive traits for a player whose main responsibility will be to mentor a first-round quarterback; something Taylor did just last season in Los Angeles for the Charger’s Justin Herbert. He’d also be a quality emergency option for actual playing time, as he was a viable starter in Buffalo and his mobility and risk-averse playing style offer a fairly high floor.
With the two quarterback roster positions filled, Gardner Minshew is traded to the Seattle Seahawks for a 2022 fifth-round draft pick. If Russell Wilson went down, the quality of quarterback play would drastically decline but the style wouldn’t change much, as both players are hesitant the throw over the middle of the field and tend to hold onto the ball for far too long. Minshew would provide some stability in Seattle with Wilson trade rumors continuing to surface and former backup Geno Smith headed to the open market.
Running back
James Robinson, Kenneth Gainwell (R), Devine Ozigbo
James Robinson is undoubtedly the team’s lead back, but the Jaguars need depth behind him to lessen the burden and contribute some in passing situations. Kenneth Gainwell is the next great running back prospect to emerge from Memphis, a.k.a. RBU, and is one of the best pass-catching backs in the draft class. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler described Gainwell as “a versatile rushing/receiving threat with instinctive playmaking skills, projecting as a scheme-versatile offensive weapon.” Seems like Meyer will like that. 2019 fifth-rounder Ryquell Armstead’s future is still in question after he missed the 2020 season due to coronavirus implications, so preseason darling Devine Ozigbo fills out the position group as the third and final running back.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., Curtis Samuel (FA), Collin Johnson, Ihmir Smith-Marsette (R), Josh Hammond
D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault should benefit as much as anyone else on the roster from the addition of Lawrence and the new coaching staff- Chark returning to the Pro Bowl is an attainable goal for Jacksonville’s WR1. Curtis Samuel is added in a move that makes almost too much sense, considering he was recruited by and played for Urban Meyer, would add the speed element that Meyer wants, and would be another invaluable target for a rookie quarterback.
I believe Shenault could shine in the slot, but Samuel -- who ran from the slot on 72% of his 2020 routes -- likely makes more sense in that role to replace Keelan Cole. Chark/Shenault/Samuel makes up a dynamic starting trio of young receivers who aren’t even close to their full potential and can grow with their new franchise quarterback.
Collin Johnson showed nice flashes in his 2020 rookie campaign, and he’s joined by rookie speedster Ihmir Smith-Marsette as the primary receiver backups. Iowa’s Smith-Marsette has reportedly drawn pre-draft interest from the Jaguars and would be a strong field-stretcher and special teams returner. Second-year undrafted receiver Josh Hammond wins the practice squad battle to earn the last spot in the room as a backup slot receiver and special teams contributor.
Tight End
Gerald Everett (FA), Tommy Tremble (R), Josh Oliver
86th-percentile SPARQ athlete Gerald Everett is unlikely to re-sign with the Los Angeles Rams with Tyler Higbee as its starter and its current league-last cap space, so Jacksonville adds Everett with the hope that he’ll become the best Jaguars tight end in the last decade-plus, which truthfully isn’t that high of a bar to reach. Everett isn’t much of a blocker, as he’s more of a big-bodied receiver, but Jacksonville settles for the discount at the position with the intent on spending its money on the defensive side of the ball instead.
Notre Dame’s Tommy Tremble is drafted in the fourth round to add needed depth and another player with a quality-starter-ceiling, as he would immediately contribute as a blocker with the athletic upside to benefit the passing game. With an Everett/Tremble combo, Jacksonville would have a duo that features a primary pass-catcher and run-blocker, with Josh Oliver rounding out the tight end room as an injury-prone albeit unproven third-year pro.
Offensive Line
Cam Robinson (Tag), Andrew Norwell, Brandon Linder, A.J. Cann, Jawaan Taylor, Tyler Shatley (FA), Ben Bartch, Will Richardson Jr., D’Ante Smith (R)
The Jaguars offensive line returns all of its starters for the second consecutive season, a consistency that’s rare in the NFL. Andrew Norwell, Brandon Linder and A.J. Cann impressed last season as a stout interior group and was perhaps the team’s strongest position group with help from backup Tyler Shatley, who the Jaguars re-sign to a one-year deal after impressing last season when he started games at multiple positions due to various injuries.
Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor didn’t perform as well -- they allowed the most pressures by any tackle duo in the league last season per PFF -- but they’re young and athletic with room to grow in their second season under retained offensive line coach George Warhop.
I’ve made my case that Jacksonville would benefit from a blindside upgrade, but tagging Robinson was a logical decision considering what could be a poor free agency market at the position and his future potential. Will Richardson Jr. enters his contract year as the swing tackle, Ben Bartch goes into his sophomore season as Cann’s competition at guard, and the team drafts another fourth-round developmental prospect in left tackle D’Ante Smith. The East Carolina product had one of the strongest Senior Bowl performances among offensive linemen after playing just one game in 2020 due to an undisclosed injury.
Defense
Defensive Line
Fletcher Cox (Trade), Daviyon Nixon (R), Larry Ogunjobi (FA), Doug Costin, Taven Bryan, Davon Hamilton, Al Woods, Marquiss Spencer (R)
Meyer makes his first splash play as Jaguars commander-in-chief by trading for veteran defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. The Philadelphia Eagles appear on its way to a rebuild considering its aging roster and dire cap situation, so Jacksonville makes a move similar to the one Baltimore did a year ago when it traded a fifth-round pick for Calais Campbell. If it weren’t for Aaron Donald, Cox might be the best interior defensive lineman of his generation. He was just good as opposed to great in 2020, but like Campbell, he shows no sign of slowing down despite being on the wrong side of 30 and would immediately benefit Jacksonville’s entire front seven as the difference-maker the team so clearly needs in the trenches.
Free agent Larry Ogunjobi and 33rd overall pick Daviyon Nixon complete the Jaguars all-new defensive line, with the latter profiling as a high-upside prospect who owns perhaps the best quickness and versatility at his position.
The hope is that between former Buckeye and 2020 draftee Davon Hamilton and the inconsistent but flashy Ogunjobi, at least one of them will be able to prove themselves as a capable starter in the nose tackle rotation. Late-round dart Marquiss Spencer projects as a 3-4 end run defender, and he joins 2017 bust Taven Bryan and 2020 undrafted breakout Doug Costin as depth/rotational pieces.
Al Woods assumingly returns following his 2020 opt-out, but if he doesn’t come back re-signing Dawuane Smoot makes sense to fill the last position in the defensive line unit.
Edge/On-ball Linebackers
Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chaisson, Joe Giles-Harris, Leon Jacobs
Back-to-back first-round draft picks Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson head the outside linebacker positions in defensive coordinator Joe Cullen’s new 3-4 defense. An affordable veteran signing makes a lot of sense to rotate in snaps, especially with the upward-trending but still-raw Chaisson, but the Jaguars spend its resources elsewhere in part due to Joe Giles-Harris’ encouraging play at strongside linebacker in the second half of last season. Leon Jacobs enters his contract year coming off an ACL tear but was a reliable backup prior to his injury.
Off-Ball Linebackers
Myles Jack, Joe Schobert, Quincy Williams, Shaquille Quarterman
Myles Jack prepares for his second season at weakside linebacker as Joe Schobert prepares for his fifth defensive scheme in the past six years. With full health and knowledge of the playbook, Jack and Schobert have the potential to be one of the best linebacker duos in the league, especially with the influx of talent that’s coming to the defense this offseason. Freak athlete Quincy Williams and Oakleaf High School alumnus Shaquille Quarterman return as backups, making Jacksonville’s entire linebacker core the only position without changeover from 2020.
Cornerbacks
C.J. Henderson, Mike Hilton (FA), Greg Newsome II (R), Rashaan Melvin, Chris Claybrooks, Josiah Scott
Following the free agency period, starting quarterback and cornerback are easily the two largest needs on the team, and the Jaguars fill both in the first round by taking Lawrence then Greg Newsome.
The Northwestern star reportedly met with Jacksonville, and he fits next to 2020 first rounder C.J. Henderson as a capable man-heavy outside corner- he told The Draft Network, “I’m a pressman guy. That’s all I like doing. Me pressing at the line of scrimmage has given our team so much flexibility that they can trust me on an island and rotate the coverage the other way to help some other guys out. I love traveling with whoever the other best guy on the team is and taking that challenge of eliminating him from the game plan, but definitely, pressman is my favorite type of coverage.”
The Jaguars add experience and take advantage of the undervalued slot cornerback market by bringing back Mike Hilton, who started his career in Jacksonville as an undrafted free agent in 2016. Hilton thrived in Pittsburgh’s 3-4 scheme the past few seasons and is an excellent blitzer for Cullen to utilize.
Sophomores Josiah Scott and Chris Claybrooks keep their backup roles, and similar to Woods/Smoot, 2020 opt-out Rashaan Melvin is brought back to round out the position group but the team could choose to re-sign Sidney Jones if Melvin ends up not being retained.
Safeties
John Johnson III (FA), Jarrod Wilson, Richie Grant (R), Daniel Thomas, Andrew Wingard
The Jaguars signs its biggest free agent of the offseason in former Rams strong safety John Johnson, who was a pivotal piece of Los Angeles’ league-leading defense (in terms of total points, total yards and EPA per play allowed). Johnson adds the playmaking ability that Jacksonville’s secondary has sorely missed in recent seasons and will likely be used all over the field.
Jarrod Wilson begins his contract season as the starter at free safety but will end up splitting playing time with second-round selection Richie Grant from UCF, whose instincts and playing speed are among the best of any player in the draft as a self-proclaimed “ball-hungry” player. Daniel Thomas put together some exciting plays in limited action last season, and he’s joined by third-year Wyoming product Andrew Wingard as the depth pieces at the safety position.
Special Teams
Josh Lambo, Logan Cooke, Ross Matiscik, Chris Claybrooks/Ihmir Smith-Marsette (R)
Josh Lambo and Logan Cooke are quietly one of the best special teams duos in the league when healthy- Lambo converted on a league-high 97% of his 2019 field goal attempts before playing just four games in 2020, and Cooke ranked fifth in punts downed and sixth in net yards per punt last season according to PFF. Ross Matiscik returns as long snapper, and Chris Claybrooks (who downed the third-most punts in the league last year per Sportradar despite missing four games) and rookie Smith-Marsette will compete for returning duties.
