2022 NFL Playoff Picture and Scenarios: The 14 Teams Projected to Make the Postseason

Just six weeks remain in the NFL season before 32 teams are quickly dwindled down to 14. And in a whacky year where double-digit teams are in the 4-win neighborhood, there are few teams that are truly out of it entering Week 13.

But which teams are currently projected to make the playoffs? Which teams would be in it if the playoffs began today? We break it down below.

Current playoff outlook: Top seven teams will make the playoffs.

AFC

1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Miami Dolphins
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Baltimore Ravens
5) Buffalo Bills
6) Cincinnati Bengals
7) New York Jets

In the Hunt

8) New England Patriots

9) Los Angeles Chargers

10) Indianapolis Colts

11) Jacksonville Jaguars

12) Las Vegas Raiders

13) Cleveland Browns

14) Pittsburgh Steelers

Out of the Running

15) Denver Broncos

16) Houston Texans

NFC

1) Philadelphia Eagles

2) Minnesota Vikings

3) San Francisco 49ers

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5) Dallas Cowboys

6) New York Giants

7) Washington Commanders

In the hunt

8) Seattle Seahawks

9) Atlanta Falcons

10) Detroit Lions

11) Green Bay Packers

12) Arizona Cardinals

13) Carolina Panthers

14) New Orleans Saints

Out of the Running

15) Los Angeles Rams

16) Chicago Bears

Next are what the projected playoff percentages are, using a combination of three of the best predictive models.

Playoff % is via, ESPN's FPI projections, 538's projections and Football Outsider's playoff predictions.

AFC Playoff % (ESPN)

1) Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
2) Buffalo Bills: 98%
3) Baltimore Ravens: 95.3%
4) Miami Dolphins: 90.2%
5) Tennessee Titans: 88%
6) Cincinnati Bengals: 79.8%
7) Los Angeles Chargers: 64.5%

In the Hunt

8) New York Jets: 38.4%
9) New England Patriots: 20.0%
10) Jacksonville Jaguars: 14.5%
11) Las Vegas Raiders: 5.7%
12) Cleveland Browns: 4.1%
13) Indianapolis Colts: 1.0%
14) Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.5%

Out of the Running

15) Denver Broncos: 0.0%
16) Houston Texans: 0.0%

Playoff % (FO)

1) Kansas City Chiefs: 99.9%
2) Buffalo Bills: 95.7%
3) Tennessee Titans: 95.4%
4) Baltimore Ravens: 92.1%
5) Miami Dolphins: 88.0%
6) Cincinnati Bengals: 72.4%
7) New York Jets: 66.4%

In the Hunt

8) New England Patriots: 46.8%
9) Los Angeles Chargers: 30.2%
10) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.4%
11) Cleveland Browns: 2.9%
12) Las Vegas Raiders: 2.3%
13) Pittsburgh Steelers: 1.5%
14) Indianapolis Colts: 1.0%

Out of the Running

15) Denver Broncos: 0.0%
16) Houston Texans: 0.0%

Playoff % (538)

1) Kansas City Chiefs: 99.99%
2) Tennessee Titans: 97%
3) Buffalo Bills: 96%
4) Miami Dolphins: 90%
5) Baltimore Ravens: 90%
6) Cincinnati Bengals: 70%
7) New York Jets: 53%

In the Hunt

8) Los Angeles Chargers: 41%
9) New England Patriots: 37%
10) Cleveland Browns: 6%
11) Las Vegas Raiders: 6%
12) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5%
13) Pittsburgh Steelers: 3%
14) Indianapolis Colts: 2%

Out of the Running

15) Denver Broncos: 0.1%
16) Houston Texans: 0.1%

Playoff Scenarios For Week 13: None

NFC Playoff % (ESPN)

1) Philadelphia Eagles: 100%
2) Dallas Cowboys: 100%
3) Minnesota Vikings: 99.9%
4) San Francisco 49ers: 98.0%
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 73.2%
6) Seattle Seahawks: 67.5%
7) Washington Commanders: 63.4%

In the Hunt

8) New York Giants: 58.3%
9) Atlanta Falcons: 17.8%
10) New Orleans Saints: 7.3%
11) Detroit Lions: 4.8%
12) Carolina Panthers: 4.8%
13) Green Bay Packers: 3.0%
14) Arizona Cardinals: 1.2%

Out of the Running

15) Los Angels Rams: 0.9%
16) Chicago Bears: 0.0%

Playoff % (FO)

1) Philadelphia Eagles: 100%
2) Dallas Cowboys: 99.9%
3) Minnesota Vikings: 99.3%
4) San Francisco 49ers: 96.0%
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 77.4%
6) Seattle Seahawks: 72.0%
7) Washington Commanders: 61.5%

In the Hunt

8) New York Giants: 50.4%
9) Atlanta Falcons: 19.6%
10) Detroit Lions: 11.2%
11) New Orleans Saints: 4.5%
12) Green Bay Packers: 3.8%
13) Carolina Panthers: 3.4%

Out of the Running14) Los Angels Rams: 0.8%
15) Arizona Cardinals: 0.1%
16) Chicago Bears: 0.0%

Playoff % (538)

1) Philadelphia Eagles: 99%
2) Minnesota Vikings: 99%
3) Dallas Cowboys: 99%
4) San Francisco 49ers: 96%
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 70%
6) Washington Commanders: 66%
7) Seattle Seahawks: 66%

In the Hunt

8) New York Giants: 50%
9) Atlanta Falcons: 17%
10) Carolina Panthers: 10%
11) New Orleans Saints: 8%
12) Detroit Lions: 8%
13) Green Bay Packers: 3%
14) Los Angeles Rams: 3%
15) Arizona Cardinals: 1%

Out of the Running

16) Chicago Bears: 0.1%

Playoff Scenarios For Week 13:

Philadelphia clinches playoff berth with: 1) PHI win + WAS loss + SF loss or tie + SEA loss or tie (as long as both SF and SEA each don’t tie) OR 2) PHI win + WAS tie + SF loss + SEA loss

Minnesota clinches NFC North division title with: 1) MIN win + DET loss or tie OR 2) MIN tie + DET loss