3 Observations on Jaguars Drawing Chargers For Wild Card Matchup

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have all eyes on them once again on Saturday night, with the AFC South champions set to host the Los Angeles Chargers and Justin Herbert at TIAA Bank Field.

It will be the first home playoff game the Jaguars have hosted since the 2017 season and the first home prime-time in franchise history. To say there will be an electric atmosphere would be an understatement.

So, what does the Jaguars' drawing of the Chargers in the first-round mean? We break it down below.

Jaguars and Chargers should each forget their Week 3 matchup

The Jaguars and Chargers would both be wise to put Week 3 completely behind them. That could be easier said than done for both teams, considering it was one of the biggest wins and confidence boosters of the Jaguars' season and one of the true low points of the Chargers' year. But that game was over 100 days ago, and neither team looks much like they did then.

For starters, the Jaguars are down two starters and a key defensive piece from the Week 3 game in left tackle Cam Robinson, left guard Ben Bartch and defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot. The Jaguars have also more or less wrinkled out their schematic issues since the 38-10 victory in Week 3, with the offense and especially Trevor Lawrence all growing more comfortable in Doug Pederson's scheme, while the defensive scheme has adjusted throughout the year and even put different players in different positions.

The Chargers appear set to have a host of players available this weekend who were not able to play in Week 3. The Chargers played with a host of key players either out or banged up the first time these two teams played, so they will be much closer to full strength this time around. For context, look at where the Chargers are over the last six weeks compared to where they were after the Jaguars game.

Jaguars/Chargers more or less the same team over the last 6 weeks. pic.twitter.com/v8rM12i7sL
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) January 9, 2023

For context on how much things have changed since Week 3, here is where the two teams were then. https://t.co/GPmrws7FbS pic.twitter.com/4RsOpAOVEE
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) January 9, 2023

Doug Pederson vs. Brandon Staley will decide the winner

Sunday's game will feature two of the brightest offensive and defensive play-callers in the league, pitted against each other for the second time this season and this time on a grand stage. Doug Pederson has produced a top-10 offense this year despite few giving him the chance to do so entering the season, while Staley has built a reputation as a forward-thinking defensive mine.

While the Chargers were not 100% the last time these two teams played, it is worth noting that Pederson won the first round of bouts between him and Staley. The Jaguars had the No. 3 offense in Week 3 in terms of EPA/Play, No. 8 in success rate, No. 6 in dropback EPA/Play and No. 1 in dropback success rate. The Jaguars' passing game carved the Chargers' and Staley's scheme up. Whether Pederson can do so again will go a long way in determining who is going to win this game and advance to the second round.

Staley will have more pieces at his disposal this time. There is also more tape on Lawrence in Pederson's offense today than there was in Week 3. For the Jaguars to win, they will need Pederson to once again triumph over Staley.

Matchup between two similarly hot teams, young franchise quarterbacks is the best game of Wild Card slate

The last time the Jaguars played in the Wild Card round, they were in arguably the least interesting game of the entire weekend vs. the Bills and a lackluster offense led by Tyrod Taylor. This time around, though, the script has been flipped completely, and the Jaguars are now in one of the league's most exciting games.

The Chargers were picked as a trendy team entering this season and are led by a host of stars such as Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Khalil Mack, and Austin Ekeler. Then you have the Jaguars, who are one of the league's best stories in 2022 and a young roster full of exciting potential future stars such as Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Tyson Campbell, and more.

In short, this matchup will feature two of the more exciting and up-and-coming teams in the NFL, along with two quarterbacks who can be among the faces of the position in the AFC alongside Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. The Jaguars will be playing in the game of the weekend, and they should embrace that.