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5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Bengals

In our new series, we look at the five most important plays from Jacksonville's loss to the Bengals
John Shipley|
5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Bengals
5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Bengals

The game is football is defined by many things, but nothing defines football more than big plays. Whether it is a touchdown in a huge situation or a turnover at the goal line, individual moments create the seismic shifts that we see determine the results of games every Sunday. 

One tool that is especially helpful when it comes to gauging the impact of individual plays is Earned Points Added, or EPA. Inside The Pylon does a great job of explaining this, but essentially this way of looking at plays shows how much value a play has depending on the specific context of the play in question. In short, it takes consideration into down and distance and field position. So for example, this would show a 10-yard pass on third-and-5 is more impactful than a 10-yard pass on third-and-15, even if the quarterback and receiver each get 10 yards either way. 

So with this in mind, I am going to use play data from Pro Football Reference every week to look at the five most impactful plays from the Jaguars' previous game in terms of EPA. 

To arrive at the figure, I subtracted the actual earned points from projected earned points before each play, using PFR data. The plays with the largest difference were the most impactful plays. I ranked them on a 0 scale, which means that the further away from 0 a play is, the more impactful it is. A negative value simply means it is a bad play from the offense, so consider it a valuable play for the defense. 

With that said, here are my five most impactful plays from Sunday's 33-25 loss to the Bengals.

Play No. 1: Myles Jack's wild interception

It is unsurprising that this play is the biggest play in terms of EPA. It took away a potential touchdown from the Bengals near the goal line and resulted in the Jaguars taking possession. There is nothing that is more game-changing than a turnover, especially one that directly prevents a touchdown or field goal. Jack's interception of Joe Burrow, which is one of the more impressive plays you will see from a linebacker this season, resulted in a -5.45 single-play EPA, making it the most impactful individual play from Sunday's bout. The Jaguars would go on to kick a field goal on the ensuing drive, meaning this play had a 10-point swing alone.

Play No. 2: Minshew to Chark on fourth down

The second most impactful play from Sunday's Jaguars game was a key fourth-down conversion by Jacksonville's offense. In this instance, the Jaguars get a clear boost due to the down-and-distance and the game situation. On fourth-and-3 from Jacksonville's own 32 with 7:48 left in the fourth quarter and the Jaguars trailing 30-16, the Jaguars made a bold but necessary call to go for it on fourth down. Minshew saw star receiver DJ Chark lined up outside with a one-on-one against LeShaun Sims and threw him a back shoulder pass, resulting in both a first-down and a 22-yard gain. 

This huge play resulted in an EPA of 3.76 and actually had the third-lowest EPB of all plays from the game. There was no real reason for this to result in a positive play, but it did. This would also help set up Jacksonville's two-yard touchdown pass to Chark later in the same drive, though that isn't factored in here.

Play No. 3: Joe Mixon's first touchdown run 

Unsurprisingly, the biggest play the Jaguars allowed on Sunday is the third most impactful play in terms of EPA. Mixon made the Jaguars' defense look ridiculous as he took a carry to the right edge and beat the defense in a footrace to the end zone, a 34-yard touchdown on first-and-10. This play resulted in an EPA of 3.69 because it was a touchdown from so many yards out, and as the game's biggest play in terms of both yardage and points, it is logical for it to land at No. 3. 

Play No. 4: ... and Mixon's second touchdown run 

To follow up on Mixon's first touchdown, his second one ends up being the fourth most impactful play in terms of EPA. It was a longer touchdown than each of Chark's touchdown receptions and longer than Mixon's first-half touchdown catch, so it makes sense why this 23-yard touchdown run on third-and-1 ranks with a 3.6 EPA. This was poor defense from the Jaguars, with Taven Bryan providing little resistance inside, Dakota Allen filling the wrong gap and Josh Jones missing a tackle.

Play No. 5: Minshew is intercepted on the first drive

Could this be any other play? Turning the ball over is always going to be a major play, and Minshew's only turnover of the day, unfortunately, hurt the Jaguars a good deal since it came on third-down in Jacksonville territory. Minshew threw the ball inside and high to Tyler Eifert on a concept in which every receiver ran a curl route, and Jessie Bates tipped the pass. It resulted in a Jordan Evans interception, giving the Bengals the ball at the Jaguars 43-yard line. This play resulted in a -3.42 EPA, though most of the damage came because of the fact the EPB was 0.700 and the interception resulted in -2.720 points after the play.

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John Shipley
JOHN SHIPLEY

John Shipley has been covering the Jacksonville Jaguars as a beat reporter and publisher of Jaguar Report since 2019. Previously, he covered UCF's undefeated season as a beat reporter for NSM.Today, covered high school prep sports in Central Florida, and covered local sports and news for the Palatka Daily News. Follow John Shipley on Twitter at @_john_shipley.

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