Betting the Jaguars: Week 1
It’s finally the time for real football, which means it’s the time for game-day betting! My favorite way to bet on Sundays is through player prop bets. Since my background is in fantasy, I’ve always been focused on weekly matchups and trying to predict which players will pop certain weeks. Because of this, my betting strategy has mainly been playing the overs on player props.
Aside from life being too short for unders, it’s just more fun to cheer for players to succeed. Points!
Trevor Lawrence o1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -130
Calvin Ridley o62.5 receiving yards: -115
In Week 1 the Jaguars are traveling to Indianapolis to take on the Colts. The Jags are favored by five points on the road so the books clearly think this Jaguars team is much better than the Colts. They would be right.
I have high hopes for Anthony Richardson’s development and potential ceiling but you would be crazy to expect this Colts offense to come out of the gates running. In the preseason Richardson showed exactly what we saw from his college tape. Great pocket awareness and scrambling, toughness, throws that make you go wow, throws that make you question him, and everything in between. There are going to be a ton of speed bumps along the way which ultimately means this team is going to struggle early and often.
Enter one hungry Jaguars team looking to prove themselves. I expect the Jaguars to come out flying in an attempt to show the league they belong with the contenders in the AFC. On top of that, I expect them to showcase their shiny new toy in Calvin Ridley quite frequently. Remember the days of the Gus Bradley Jaguars and the bend and don’t break defense? They didn’t have the players to make it work and quite frankly neither do the Colts. I expect Colts fans to feel the same way we did back in the day as we watched every team's No. 1 receiver seemingly rack up free reception after free reception.
We already saw the team use Ridley in quick ways when he was lined up in single coverage in the preseason and that isn't going to stop. I’ve legitimately never heard of either cornerback who is going to be attempting to cover Calvin on Sunday. I’m firing up Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley with full confidence this week as I don’t see any reason the Jaguars don’t score 30 points this weekend.
Both of their lines seem absolutely ridiculous to me so I’m playing them heavily. If you want to make things spicy you can get Ridley to hit 100 yards receiving at +450 which would pay you back $55 on a $10 bet. I’ll be putting a sprinkle there as well.
Non-Jags Bets
Patrick Mahomes o286.5 Passing Yards: -115
I’ll keep these ones short and sweet. Mahomes is Mahomes. Andy Reid is even more of a wizard with extra prep time. Here are all of Mahomes' season openers as a starter:
2018: 15/27 256 yards 4 TD vs. Chargers
2019: 25/33 378 yards 3 TD vs. Jaguars
2020: 24/32 211 yards 3 TD vs. Texans (up 31-7 in early 4th)
2021: 27/36 337 yards 3 TD vs. Browns
2022: 30/39 360 yards 5 TD vs. Cardinals
Mahomes and company get it done on opening weekend and in a game where I expect a lot of points I think Mahomes will cruise to 300 yards on Thursday night.
Raheem Mostert o52.5 rush yards: -120
The Dolphins and Chargers game has a point total of 51. Vegas expects some fireworks and I do too. Jeff Wilson Jr. has been placed on IR and De’Von Achane just returned to practice this week. The only other option on the depth chart right now for the Dolphins is Chris Brooks, an undrafted running back out of BYU. Even if Achane can go, I don’t think the Dolphins would give him as much of a workload as they may envision for him down the road this week which leaves a huge opportunity for Moster in a great running scheme and a game with a high total. Don’t overthink this one.
