Betting the Jaguars: Week 2
Week 1 Recap
- Trevor Lawrence o1.5 passing Tds -130 ✅
- Calvin Ridley o62.5 receiving yards -115 ✅
- Calvin Ridley 100+ receiving yards +450 ✅
- Patrick Mahomes o286.5 passing yards -115 ❌
- Raheem Mostert o52.5 rushing yards -120 ❌
Overall record 3-2 +4.14 units
Hot start thanks to Calving Ridley. A couple of misses on Mahomes and Mostert. Mahomes without Kelce was a handful of bad drops away from hitting his prop (get used to bad beats like that if you’re new here) and Mike McDaniel won’t run the ball. Moving on.
The Jaguars are welcoming the Chiefs to Jacksonville this weekend in what looks to be one of the best matchups of the week. Draftkings Sportsbook has their point total set for 51 which is the highest of the weekend so we are expecting some offense here. Even after putting up 31 points against the Colts, the books have not adjusted their expectations too much for the Jags offense so for the most part I’m going back to the well as I expect the Jaguars to have to put up points this Sunday to walk away with the win.
- Jaguars team total points o23.5: -120
- Game total points o51: -110
- Trevor Lawrence o1.5 passing touchdowns: -130
- Travis Etienne longest rush o15.5 yards: -105
As mentioned above, I expect the Jaguars to be forced to score a lot of points in order to keep up with the Chiefs. It’s an easy connection to take that expectation and take it to the books.
As a head coach, Andy Reid is a combined 17-2 in games after a bye week or Thursday night game. He is a game-planning wizard on a normal week and a true sorcerer when given extra time to prepare so I have no doubt the Chiefs will be back to normal on offense. Even without the potential return of Travis Kelce and especially following a lackluster Week 1 offensive performance in a loss to the Lions. Unfortunately, I’m expecting the Chiefs to score around 30 points. I also expect the game to come down to the wire.
Put two and two together and we’ve got a game script where both the Jags total and game total hit. 23.5 is also a nice betting number as 24 hits the bet for you. I’m going right back to Trevor as throwing two touchdowns in a competitive, high-scoring game seems obvious. He made some absolutely WOW throws against the Colts and his arrow is only going up. Yes, it’s juiced down to -130 so the payout isn’t as nice but I generally am comfortable playing a prop down to -150 if I feel really good about it.
If the Jags are also going to hit their scoring total in a back-and-forth game, I highly doubt it results in punching it in on the ground all day. Last up I love Travis Etienne longest rush o15.5 yards. He is a big play waiting to happen and he showed it with his 26-yard touchdown to close out the Colts. Etienne hit this line 11/19 games last season (including playoffs). Two of the misses were Weeks 2 and 3 when he wasn’t getting the ball much and James Robinson had rushes over 15 yards in both. Another was the Ravens game where got hurt and received 2 carries. I feel very comfortable with this one.
Non-Jaguars Bets
DJ Moore o43.5 receiving yards:-110
I get the Bears offense looked miserable in Week 1 but 43.5 is insanely low for a true number one receiver. Moore caught two balls on two targets for 25 yards in his first appearance as a Bear leaving fantasy managers scared. He had Jaire Alexander on him all day so I’m not too concerned overall. The Bears are matched up against a Buccaneers secondary that just allowed Justin Jefferson to for nine catches and 150 yards. Yes, I’m aware DJ Moore isn’t Justin Jefferson but don’t also forget how talented the guy is. The Bucs don’t have a corner who can lock his guy down and I look for the Bears to heavily involve Moore in the gameplan this week in effort to get things back on track.
Keenan Allen o68.5 receiving yards: -120
Allen finds himself with a juicy Week 2 matchup vs a leaky Titans secondary. The Titans are very stout up front and stop the run well forcing teams to throw on them. Keenan Allen is a reception monster and is clearly Justin Herbert’s most trustworthy target. From Week 10 on when he was healthy and back to playing his normal snaps, he crossed this number 6/8 times. He hit it in Week 1 and I expect him to hit it again. Bet this one now as it will only go up if Ekeler is forced to miss the game.
