Betting the Jaguars: Week 3
Week 2 Recap
Jaguars team total points: o23.5 (-120) ❌
Game total points: o51 (-110) ❌
Trevor Lawrence: o1.5 passing touchdowns (-130) ❌
Travis Etienne longest rush: o15.5 yards (-105) ❌
DJ Moore: o43.5 receiving yards (-110) ✅
Keenan Allen: o68.5 receiving yards (-120) ✅
Overall Record 5-6 +1.6 units
Took one on chin this week as the Jaguars offense laid an egg but we keep trucking along. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen came through to salvage some units and keep us positive on the season. I don’t think anyone predicted what the Jaguars produced on offense this past weekend but that’s the NFL for ya.
Up next, they have the Houston Texans at home. At 9.5-point favorites, the Jaguars are penciled in for an easy victory but they have only beaten the Texans at home twice since 2011. Personally, I think the Jaguars win this one as they are just way more talented overall but I could easily see the Texans keeping the spread in play or back door covering it so I will likely stay away there.
Calvin Ridley: o69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Travis Etienne longest rush: o15.5 yards (-125)
Tank Dell: o35.5 receiving yards (-120)
With Derek Stingley set to miss the game, the Texans are forced to thrust Shaquille Griffin into their starting lineup. After signing an big free agent deal with the Jaguars in 2021, we all witnessed the quality of cornerback play Griffin had left to put onto the field. He was released this offseason and signed on with the Texans as a depth option. Fortunately for Calvin Ridley, he will get to see a lot of Griffin. Ridley absolutely torched the Colts no name cornerbacks week 1 and I don’t see any reason this week won’t be the same as the Texans play a lot of zone defense.
I’m going right back to Travis Etienne’s longest rush prop this week. He missed it last week but he came close. The Chiefs defense is a lot better than we all anticipated so his performance on the ground last weekend isn’t as bad as it initially seemed. The Texans have given up over 100 rushing yards on the ground each week so far and lot of them to less talented running backs and also running quarterbacks. I think Etienne gets a fairly heavy workload this weekend and once again he’s liable to take one to the house any touch he gets.
Nico Collins has been the big bright spot of the Texans offense but this week he finds himself matching up against Tyson Campbell. Tyson has had success against bigger-bodied receivers so I like this matchup for him. I don’t think he shadows Collins fully but Darious Williams is playing really well too. As a result, I see the Texans funneling some work inside to Tank Dell and at 35.5 yards this total is very reasonable. He had 34 yards in week 1 and 72 yards in week 2.
Other Bets
Bijan Robinson: o23.5 receiving yards (-110)
Kirk Cousins: o292.5 passing yards (-115)
Bijan has crossed this line both games so far this season. He had 6 catches in week 1 and 4 in week 2. The Falcons are getting him involved in the passing game and this week they get the Lions so they’re going to need to score to keep up with the Lions offense.
The Vikings host the Chargers in what looks to be the high-scoring game of the week with a game total of 54. Kirk has crushed this line in both games and gets to play a defense that looks like they are actively trying to give up big plays. The Vikings run game has been so impressive they went out and traded for Cam Akers. All joking aside, they don’t run the ball well and could potentially set a league record in pass attempts this year. I don’t understand how this line is under 300 yards.
