Do the Falcons Make Sense as a Round 1 Trade Partner for Jaguars?
As the 2020 NFL Draft inches closer and closer, public rumblings of the Atlanta Falcons considering a big move up in the draft have grown louder and louder. In fact, they are loud enough that it is time to start taking it seriously despite the common smoke screens teams use this time of the year.
Of course, these types of rumors circulate every single year in the weeks leading up to the draft. Because of this, every rumor has to be met with a natural sense of skepticism, but where there is smoke, there is often fire.
If the Falcons, who own the No. 16 overall pick in next Thursday's first-round, want to make an aggressive move up the board, would the Jacksonville Jaguars be one team who makes sense as a trading partner? Some scenarios would make sense for each team, but overall it is a mixed bag in terms of realistic probability.
On the surface, it would be logical for the Falcons to tab the Jaguars as the team they want to make a deal with in the event they want to move up in the draft. Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff has a close relationship with Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell that extends all the way back to Dimitroff's first year with the Falcons in 2008.
In 2008, Caldwell joined Dimitroff in Atlanta as Director of College Scouting, a role he held until 2011. In 2012, Caldwell was promoted to Director of Player Personel in his final year in Atlanta before he accepted the general manager job with Jacksonville in 2013.
"Dave is a very bright, adept and organized talent evaluator," Dimitroff said when Caldwell was hired by the Jaguars. "He has a very sound understanding of team building and player acquisition. Dave has been an integral member of our scouting department and has demonstrated excellent leadership as the Director of College Scouting and as the Director of Player Personnel. I have complete confidence in Dave, and I know that he will excel in his new role as the General Manager of the Jacksonville Jaguars."
To date, the Falcons and Jaguars have yet agreed to any draft trade in the seven years Caldwell has been in Jacksonville, but 2020 could always be different. The Jaguars, who pick No. 9, could be a prime candidate to move down in the draft due to a wide array of roster needs and a lack of great value at No. 9. Players like Derrick Brown, Mekhi Becton, and Andrew Thomas would be relative reaches, while it is reasonable for the Jaguars to not want a wide receiver in the top-10 due to the depth of the receiver class.
If the Falcons are sold on a player such as Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown, or South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, it would make sense for them to think moving up to No. 9 would give them the opportunity to grab any of the three.
But despite the Jaguars being in a prime trade down spot and Caldwell's close relationship with Dimitroff, there are reasons to doubt a trade between the Falcons and Jaguars could happen. Namely, the Falcons lack of draft capital.
Any draft trade the Jaguars may engage in would likely consist of the Jaguars obtaining 2020 draft picks. While the Jaguars already have 12 picks in next week's draft, it makes sense for them to prioritize picks this year over picks in 2021 because Caldwell and head coach Doug Marrone are on the hot seat. For Caldwell and Marrone to keep their jobs, they need to improve the team now, not in 2021.
For context, every single one of the Jaguars' trades this offseason has involved 2020 draft picks. A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, and Nick Foles were all dealt for picks in this year's draft instead of in 2021. The Jaguars got two 2021 picks for Jalen Ramsey in October, but they also got a 2020 first-round pick.
Do the Falcons have the 2020 draft ammo to entice a team like the Jaguars? A quick look at the picks the Falcons own suggests they likely do not.
- Round 1, No. 16 overall
- Round 2, No. 47 overall
- Round 3, No. 78 overall
- Round 4, No. 119 overall
- Round 4, No. 143 overall
- Round 7, No. 228 overall
With only six picks in this year's draft, and three in top-100, the Falcons would likely have to sacrifice a lofty price to move to No. 9 considering it would move the Jaguars back seven slots.
If the Falcons want to move up in Thursday's first round, the Jaguars are a logical trade partner in a lot of ways considering where they are picking in the draft and Caldwell's history with Dimitroff. On the other hand, the Falcons have limited 2020 draft ammo, so some skepticism is required.
With that said, anything can happen on draft night. It is always one of the most unpredictable sporting events each year, and that could be intensified this year with the changes to the draft process due to COVID-19. If the Falcons do want to make a surprising move up the board, look for the Jaguars to be a candidate at the very least.
