Fantasy Stock Report: Playoff Semifinals
If you are fresh off a playoff win then congratulations! If you had the luxury of a relaxing weekend on bye well you better buckle up. The fantasy playoffs have been devastated by injuries and many people are in hard spots as a result. Like last week, you may be forced to make an uncomfortable click into your lineup but that doesn’t mean you’re dead in the water. Here are some fantasy backups or free agents I would be comfortable playing this week in a pinch.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: Not necessarily a play I want to be recommending but I have to be objective. The reality is that the Jaguars pass defense has been very vulnerable especially as of late. Every quarterback they have faced in the past four games has been a weekly top ten fantasy quarterback and they happen to be giving up the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Baker is playing well as of late and has the Bucs in the mix for the playoffs so this game is not what it looked like it would be back in August. Mayfield has taken advantage of plus matchups this season and I think he is good for 15+ points this week.
Gardner Minshew: Let’s be real, Minshew being a viable fantasy option has everything to do with Shane Steichen. Steichen had Anthony Richardson looking miles ahead of progress right out of the gates and now has Gardner Minshew leading a playoff push. Since the week eleven bye, Minshew has at least 15.10 points in every game and is attempting 37.5 passes per game. Running the ball is how teams have had more success against the Falcons but the threat of a running game is what makes the Colts passing game click. If you are turning to Minshew you likely don’t have huge expectations. He’s playing well enough right now I think he’s pretty safe to avoid being a dud but at the same time he isn’t sending you to finals by himself.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: Since the Panthers fired Frank Reich, Chuba Hubbard has received 25, 23, and 22 carries in three games. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been super efficient in those games with a 3.97 yards per carry average and he also doesn’t provide much in the passing game. This is volume and matchup play. The Packers give up the eighth most fantasy points to running backs and Hubbard is locked in for volume. With how much uncertainty there is with injuries it’s really comforting knowing the guy you have to sub into your lineup is last least in line for work. He has double digit fantasy points in four straight games.
Tyjae Spears: Spears has easily looked like the most talented running back in Tennessee the last few weeks. The Titans running game just hasn’t been able to fully get going and Spears is much better at making something out of nothing than Henry, especially at this point in his career. I’m guessing Geno Smith is back next week against the Titans and with their poor secondary, I think the Seahawks score some points leaving the Titans in comeback mode. This is where Spears has done his most damage. There’s an easy path to double digit points for Spears this week with his receiving work and that’s without a touchdown so I feel good about slotting in Spears if necessary.
Wide Receivers
Curtis Samuel: Since fully recovering from injury, Curtis Samuel has been a steady piece in the Commanders passing game. He certainly was over the first month and a half of the season so it’s nice to see him returning to form. In those three games he has 26 targets with 18 catches for 206 yards and has scored 19, 10.5, and 21.1 fantasy points in those games respectively. The Jets are a tough matchup on defense and we don’t really know how to project where Jacoby Brissett is going to go with the ball but I do like the targets Samuel has been getting. Samuel makes a fine fill in this week.
Dontayvion Wicks: If you are really hurting for a receiver I don’t have any issues with taking a flier on Dontayvion Wicks. He has become the deep threat in the Packers offense without Christian Watson and I doubt Watson is a full go even if he returns this week. Wicks is trending up however as he saw 63% of the snaps and six targets two weeks ago against the Giants and 78% of the snaps and seven targets this past weekend against the Buccaneers. He has earned Jordan Love’s trust making a handful of big plays recently so I don’t think the playing time is leaving. I’m not putting money on a big game or anything here but I do feel comfortable starting Wicks if need be.
Tight End
Hunter Henry: Hunter Henry has been a super boom or bust guy this year. He only has four games this season with more than five targets and also has six games with three or less. I mainly like this play because the Broncos are awful against tight ends. They give up the most fantasy points to tight ends and that was even before Sam Laporta just scored three touchdowns on them this week. His highest yardage output this season was this past week against the Chiefs with 66 yards so he doesn’t have a huge ceiling and is pretty touchdown dependent but he does have three touchdowns now with Bailey Zappe at quarterback so there could be some chemistry brewing there. There are several more reliable guys at tight end this week but I do think Henry is a fine play.
D/ST
Los Angeles Rams: Since their week ten bye, the Rams have allowed more than 20 points just once and that was against the Ravens. This week they get the Saints who are traveling to the west coast on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot but right now the Rams are the much better team in my opinion and I think they get the win this week. They are good for a few sacks a game but don’t create a ton of turnovers. They likely won’t go insane and win your week for you but I have high confidence they can keep you afloat this week if needed.
