Jaguars Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receivers
August is finally here, which means it’s time for fantasy football drafts. This article series will tell you which Jaguars players to target or avoid in all formats. This article will focus on Jacksonville’s wide receiver position.
After a forgettable rookie season, D.J. Chark had a major breakout in 2019. Chark finished as PPR’s WR17 as he paced the Jaguars receiver group in targets, receptions and touchdowns. Chark led the AFC in receiving yards through Week 8, but he finished somewhat slowly, which was mostly a result of midseason regression on deep completions.
Chark is a strong candidate to rank near the top of the league in targets next season as the only proven alpha receiver in Jacksonville. But among last year’s top-40 fantasy wideouts, Chark’s rate of targets coming on deep balls and rate of targets coming in the red zone were each in the bottom half, indicating that the types of targets Chark receives wasn’t very valuable (per Sharp Football Analysis).
Chark is on deck to face the third-easiest schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers (per Fantasy Points)- but his schedule of opposing cornerbacks is actually the third-toughest in the league, per ESPN. Casey Hayward and Jaire Alexander are the only corners who are likely to shadow Chark this season, but the rest of the schedule is filled with difficult secondary slates that could cause problems for Jacksonville’s top receiver. Per PFF, Chark was shadowed twice last season (by Marshawn Lattimore and Adoree’ Jackson) and was held to under 30 yards in each matchup.
Chark is also set to face some natural regression last season, as he scored 1.7 more touchdowns than expected (per ESPN) and had a 2.7% drop rate (seventh-best in the league) after recording a 26.3% drop rate in 2018 (league-worst).
Clearly, there are a few minor obstacles that could hold Chark back. But considering that he is likely to get peppered with targets on a team that figures to be trailing in the majority of its games, and more importantly, he probably hasn’t shown his true ceiling as he enters his age-23 season, there is a ton of upside.
With another offseason to develop chemistry with Gardner Minshew and a new role as the top receiver in Jay Gruden’s offense, Chark is a solid pick at his average draft position of WR20 in the fifth or sixth round of season-long formats, and his dynasty value is vastly underrated.
After being a popular sleeper pick last offseason, Dede Westbrook disappointed with a PPR WR42 finish. Westbrook received exactly 101 targets and 66 receptions in each of the last two years but has never accumulated more than 750 yards or five touchdowns in his career. Despite running out of the slot at one of the highest rates in the league, Westbrook has never topped 1.50 yards per route run in any of his three seasons in Jacksonville.
With Chark now the obvious No. 1 receiver in town and enough competition to prevent Westbrook from being the clear No. 2, his upside is almost nonexistent. Slot receivers who have a low average depth of target and meager red zone opportunities have to make up for it in high volume, but Westbrook isn’t a lock to surpass six targets per game this season.
Westbrook is ranked outside of the top-65 fantasy receivers, which is fair considering there are plenty of options with much higher ceilings. Maybe he’ll be a surprising beneficiary of Jay Gruden’s new scheme, but at this point in his career, a breakout seems unlikely given his production to date. Westbrook is an intriguing buy-low in dynasty considering he’s yet to sign his second NFL contract, but his 2019 outlook is unappealing.
Chris Conley doesn’t provide much value in standard leagues but is an underrated best-ball pick, as he finished 53rd in receptions (47) but 27th in receptions of 20-plus yards (13) last season. He ranked first in yards per reception and second in touchdowns on the team. Conley will have to fight for snaps with rookie newcomers Laviska Shenault and Collin Johnson.
Shenault’s injury concerns and landing spot has lowered his dynasty draft price despite being an elite prospect out of Colorado State, making him a strong target in such leagues, but there are several other rookie receivers with better short-term outlooks for 2019 season-long drafts. Johnson is unlikely to see much playing time due to Jacksonville’s unsexy but deep receiver depth chart and is a dynasty stash at best. Keelan Cole has produced some highlights in his three seasons with Jacksonville but doesn’t seem to be trusted by the coaching staff and isn’t worth rostering in any format at this point.
