Jaguars Mailbag: How Can the Offense Get Back on Track in Week 3?

Throughout the offseason, we will be taking questions on the biggest questions facing the Jacksonville Jaguars until Week 1.

You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.

This week we take questions on Walker Little, the offensive struggles, and more.

Q: Do you think the play-calling has been that different? They’ve always run a ton of screens/quick game. They’ve had a ton of negative plays in big moments which seems to cloud everyone’s judgment. I’ll take your comments off the air. Thanks

A: Here are some stats from SportsInfoSolutions on the Jaguars' offense that could help answer this. The number in parenthesis will be the Jaguars' usage % rank. Here are the numbers for 2023.

11 Personnel: 65% (13th)
12 Personnel: 23% (12th)
13 Personnel: 10% (9th)
No Huddle: 5% (22nd)
Shotgun: 86% (7th)
Motion: 53% (10th)
Play-Action: 20% (7th)
RPO: 20% (4th)
Short Dropback: 65% (10th)
Designed Rollout: 9% (6th)
Screen: 19% (1st)
Gap Run: 40% (11th)
Zone Run: 48% (25th)

Now here are the numbers last year ...

11 Personnel: 65% (14th)
12 Personnel: 23% (9th)
13 Personnel: 8% (5th)
No Huddle: 8% (15th)
Shotgun: 74% (8th)
Motion: 48% (13th)
Play-Action: 18% (17th)
RPO: 11% (13%)
Short Dropback: 68% (4th)
Designed Rollout: 8% (13th)
Screen: 14% (4th)
Gap Run: 40% (7th)
Zone Run: 58% (23rd)

In short ... this is the exact same offense. They ran a ton of screens and RPOs last year, too. I truly don't think the offense we are seeing has been much different than what we saw last year.

The difference, through two weeks, has been their third-down performance and their inability to sustain drives. They are among the NFL's leaders in three-and-outs and have the worst third-down percentage in the NFL, so all of their issues get magnified because they can't stay on the field.

Q: It's not just us. Why do so many offenses look crummy right now? Shortened practices and shorter preseason?

A: I think this is a big reason for it. Doug Pederson said this week that he likes to play his starters in the preseason for this exact reason, but it does seem like the majority fo coaches go with the opposite approach. The Jaguars are far from being alone when it comes to the offensive struggles, like you said.

Q: Re: running the ball… if you could choose one primary reason for the aversion running game would it be 1) Bartch and Fortner have forced the Jags away from a more physical ground game 2) Doug’s tendency to pass or 3) mismatch against the Colts and Chiefs defensive fronts?

A: I think it is a little of all of the above. Ben Bartch and Luke Fortner have each struggled in the run game, but they aren't alone. Brandon Scherff and Anton Harrison have had losses there too. I do think that Pederson and the Jaguars see the screen game as an extension of the running game, though, and no team has run more screens through the first two weeks as the Jaguars.

As for point No. 3, I do think there is a lot to that. The Jaguars have been better against teams with top-tier EDGE defenders in the last two years than they have been against top-tier interior defensive linemen. For today, they simply aren't build to contain players like DeForest Buckner and Chris Jones.

Q: At what point, if there is one, will Doug take play-calling duties back from Taylor?

A: I am not sure you see that at any point, honestly. Maybe if Trevor Lawrence goes over a month without a passing touchdown like he did in 2021 it could happen, but I do not think Pederson is the type of coach who would pull the plug on one of his assistants. Pederson put his own name on the line by allowing Press Taylor to call plays, so any attempt to go back on that decision will make him look indecisive and unsure of himself, which is the last thing an NFL head coach wants to portray.

Q: What’s with the trick plays? Mahomes and the Chiefs drop back and pass, but it seems like we get too many wrinkles in the Jags offense and it hinders the output. This team almost lost the division last year from a botched reverse when near the Titans’ red zone. It’s just not necessary.

A: It simply seems to be a part of the Jaguars' identity under Doug Pederson. We saw it throughout the entirety of the 2022 season, including in some of the biggest moments of the year. It made sense last year because the Jaguars still didn't have a fully fleshed-out skill room that would give them the chance to simply line up and out-play teams on a snap-to-snap basis. Now that Calvin Ridley has been added to the mix and the skill players are in their second year in the system, the Jaguars should have to learn that they don't have to sneak past anyone anymore.

Q: Two weeks in and Walker Little has been the Jags' best O-lineman. What do you see happening in 2 weeks when Cam comes back?

A: I think we will see Walker Little slide into left guard and take over for Ben Bartch, with Cam Robinson taking his spot at left tackle back. Walker Little has been terrific so far, allowing only one pressure in two weeks, but the plan has always been for Robinson to return to the lineup at left tackle once his suspension ends. While this may seem like a negative since Little has played so well, it should actually serve as a significant boost for the entire unit.

Q: Can you help me figure out why it is assumed that Cam Robinson is going to slot right back in to LT when his suspension is over? It sure appears that Little has outplayed him the last year+ and he is far likelier to be around for future seasons. Why not keep the LT of the future at LT and put Cam at LG?

A: While this makes a lot of sense on paper, the simple answer is that Cam Robinson simply isn't seen as a guard. Walker Little is viewed as a tackle first and a guard second. Robinson, however, is viewed as a tackle only. It is unclear why this may be the case, but it is obvious that Robinson is unlikely to ever take a snap inside as long as he is a Jaguar, no matter how well Walker Little is playing.

Q: Is there anything you’re seeing through the first 2 weeks that lines up with what you were seeing as far as offensive woes in training camp?

A: I think some of the running game issues flared up during camp, as well as the lack of pass-rush. The Jaguars' defense bested the offensive line more often than not on the ground during training camp. This was, at the time, largely contributed to the Jaguars' defense being built to stop the run. It is clear now, though, that the Jaguars' issues with getting movement is another aspect of their issues.

The Jaguars' pass-rush has also been as so-so as expected. They are No. 14 in pressure rate at 32.6% but No. 22 in the NFL in sack % at 5.4%. A year ago the Jaguars were No. 6 at 37% and No. 28 at 5.2%. The sacks are about the same, but the pressure has been worse thus far, which is exactly what we saw in camp.

Q: I guess we aren’t as good as the all the hype and can’t hang with the top AFC teams?

A: I think this is close to overreaction. It is a long season, and the Jaguars can certainly be one of the teams by the end of the year that nobody else in the AFC wants to play. The Chiefs simply seem to have the Jaguars' number. Right now, that is the most conclusive takeaway I have from Week 2.