Jaguar Report

By the Numbers: Jaguars Possess League's Worst Run-Pass Ratio ... Can It Be Saved?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the worst run-to-pass ratio in the NFL. We examine how it came about, how crucial the stat really is and can it be changed on Sunday against the Detroit Lions.
Kassidy Hill|
By the Numbers: Jaguars Possess League's Worst Run-Pass Ratio ... Can It Be Saved?
By the Numbers: Jaguars Possess League's Worst Run-Pass Ratio ... Can It Be Saved?

As the NFL continues to evolve, teams spread out their offenses, ask their quarterbacks to look downfield more and put the ball in the air, the novelty of a balanced offense can seem old school. 

The league isn’t three yards and a cloud of dust when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are throwing on air 60.12% of the time. However given the advent of spread offenses, a 60-40 split has become the accepted norm to describe a balanced offense.

Yet while the scramble throws and no look passes may make the highlight reel, the ability to split the offensive plays fairly evenly can mean the difference between a win or a loss. It keeps the defense honest and limits the risk of turnovers.

With new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden calling plays for the Jaguars this season, Gardner Minshew and the wide receivers corps have taken to the skies more and currently, the Jacksonville Jaguars throw the ball more than any other team in the league (66.56% of the time). But what does that also mean? They have the least balanced offense.

“Yeah, for sure,” admits Gruden when asked if it’s a concern.

"Every week our design is to go in there and run the football, pound the football. Unfortunately I’ve done a poor job of sticking with it, so it’s something we have to, obviously, get better at and be aware of the game, the situation, and all that.”

The Jaguars best balance came in the first two games, when they threw the ball 59.36% of the time. Those were, not by coincidence, the Jaguars only win (Indianapolis Colts) and relatively best loss (Tennessee Titans).

Over the last three games, Minshew has been asked to throw the ball 71.36% of the time. While the second year passer told reporters this week he doesn’t mind being asked to take on those extra attempts—“Whatever I need to do. I’ve been on team where I’ve thrown 20 times a game, [I’ve] been on teams where I’ve thrown it 60 times a game. Whatever we need to do, I’m willing to do”—his coach wants to keep those numbers in the conservative 20 range.

“We’ve won one game and he threw the ball 20 times, really probably about 27 or 28 times because he had a couple scrambles in there and a couple sacks, so that’s the ideal number for us,” pointed out Gruden.

“Unfortunately, score related, we weren’t good enough on offense in the first two or three quarters to keep the game close where we didn’t have to throw ball. I feel like against Cincinnati, obviously against Miami, and then last week against Houston, you take a whole quarter out of the game as far as being able to run the football because you’re playing behind, you’re playing against the clock as well as the other team. That kind of skews the numbers, but in a perfect world this offense is built on balance and 25 to 30 times is the target number, in my opinion.”

The score relating to the ability to run is the rub. The Jaguars getting behind in every game means they're often playing catch-up in the second half. The most perfectly balanced team in the league currently is the Tennessee Titans. They throw the ball exactly 50% of the time. They’re also one of only four teams in the NFL who remain undefeated and boast a 32 point positive score differential in games.

The teams with the best records currently (for sake of this research, they must be undefeated or 4-1) average throwing the ball 55.55% of the time. That is somewhat skewed still considering Josh Allen was forced to throw the ball 41 times in a recent loss to the Tennessee Titans. By removing the Bills from the formula, the teams average a 54.77% pass ratio.

In some ways, running the ball is a luxury. It can be used to break down the defense early in the game and control the clock with a lead late in the game. The Jaguars haven’t had that luxury in recent weeks, even with a running back that is now receiving odds for NFL Rookie of the Year.

"I think a lot of it’s dictated to the games and being behind sometimes,” explained Head Coach Doug Marrone this week.

“If you come out throwing and loosen them up and then come back to the run game. When you come back to the run game, get them there and start throwing. I think there’s a lot that goes into it. So, to answer your question, when you say concern, it’s something that we can control to some regard, outside of the score."

Adds Gruden, “we do have to do a better job early in games to try to maintain the run and keep our linemen pounding the rock a little bit and keeping the pressure off Gardner [Minshew II].”

Part of the solution could also be a different division between the aforementioned rookie of the year nominee—James Robinson—and veteran Chris Thompson. The bulk of the load thus far has been placed on Robinson, but the coaches still prefer to ride with the more experienced Thompson on third downs and in the red zone. 

Ideally, according to Marrone, Robinson will take on more of that role and create the lather that can keep a running back rolling.

“James [Robinson] is a guy that really came on the scene and we all know how good he’s been playing and really trying to bring him along, really not trying to overwhelm him with everything. We have different packages for different players, the same with the tight end, but again, I don’t disregard [that] there should be looking at seeing putting him on the field more.

“I think that he does a great job. He works extremely hard. He’s very smart. Now it’s just a matter of making sure that we have some type of balance with what we want to do with the players and in situations like that, be able to get him in there a little bit more. I don’t disagree with that.”

On Sunday, the Jags face the Lions and the worst rushing defense in the league. Detroit is giving up on average, 170.3 yards per game on the ground. Taking advantage and tipping the scales before they fall over will be crucial.

Says Marrone, “it’s something that we’re going to continue to work on and continue to try to do a better job of trying to see what the right balance is.” 

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Kassidy Hill
KASSIDY HILL

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