Jaguars vs. Colts: 5 Questions and Game Predictions in AFC South Rematch
It is hard to understate what Week 6 means for both the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) and the Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1).
For the Jaguars, it is a chance to snap a two-game losing streak and get back into the thick of things in the AFC South. For the Colts, it is a chance to show the Jaguars' 24-0 domination in Week 2 was a fluke.
So, how do we at Jaguar Report see Sunday playing out? John Shipley and Brett Hawn weigh in below.
1) Does Week 2 really factor into this rematch, or should the Jaguars throw it out completely when it comes to expectations for Sunday?
John Shipley: It does and it doesn't. This isn't the same Colts team because this team will actually have its two top receivers. The Jaguars were able to key in on the Colts' running game in Week 2 because they had zero threat on the outside, and that won't be the case this week. With that said, there is a reason the Jaguars were able to push around the Colts' offensive line and torch their defense. This will be a different game, but there are still some similarities to draw from.
Brett Hawn: The only factors that are relevant in this rematch is the familiarity with personnel, play calling, and tendencies. These will help the Jaguars form a complete game plan and have a chance at snapping their two-game skid. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor has made it clear that the Jaguars are treating this week like a brand new Colts team despite playing them for the second time in four weeks. Expect the Jaguars to come out Sunday with a new game plan and approach to their second meeting.
2) Can this be the week Trevor Lawrence gets back on track?
John Shipley: I think so, but that honestly has more to do with Doug Pederson than Trevor Lawrence. I think Pederson is going to once again scheme up Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and his Cover 3 defense. There is nothing that tells me that Bradley is going to do anything too different than in Week 2 when Pederson toyed with him for four quarters and moved the ball at will.
Brett Hawn: Every week presents a possibility for Trevor Lawrence to regain the mojo he had through the first four weeks of the season. In Week 2 against the Colts, Lawrence went 25-30 with 235 passing yards and 2 touchdowns and no turnovers, looking comfortable in the pocket and through his progression. The familiarity with the Colts defense presents a nice bounce back opportunity for Lawrence, but expect the Colts to adjust their defensive game plan from their last encounter.
3) Who is the most important player on offense and defense?
John Shipley: On offense, I will go with Christian Kirk. Trevor Lawrence isn't yet the kind of quarterback who can consistently carry an offense on his back, so he is going to need support from the skill positions. Kirk is Lawrence's most trusted option and is the player the Jaguars have shown an ability to scheme up the best mismatches for. It is no coincidence they had a season-high in drops last week while Kirk had a season-low in targets.
On defense, I will go with Tyson Campbell. If the Colts are going to produce any points this week, it will be by relying on Michael Pittman Jr. to make big plays. The Colts' running game has been sluggish all year, so stopping Pittman is the key to limiting how dangerous the Colts can be, which means this is a big week for Campbell.
Brett Hawn: On offense, this game rides on Trevor Lawrence. His 7 turnovers in the last two games have been detrimental for the Jaguars, losing to the Texans and Eagles by less than 10 points. If Lawrence has issues with turnovers again this week there is a high probability that it can cost them another win.
On defense, it’ll be up to Josh Allen and the Jaguars defensive line to consistently put pressure on Matt Ryan and try to successfully neutralize Jonathan Taylor again. Expecting the Jags to limit Taylor to 4 first half rushing yards again would be a little much, but if they’re able to disrupt the run and force Matt Ryan to act fast, a Colts offense that struggles to score points will continue to do so.
4) Biggest storyline entering Sunday?
John Shipley: Can Trevor Lawrence get out of his own way?
There is no doubt that Lawrence has shown improvement and high-level talent this season, but he has made critical mistakes in each of the Jaguars' three losses, including seven turnovers in the last two weeks. The tape shows Lawrence wasn't half as bad as most thought last Sunday, but his red-zone interception to Derek Stingley Jr. highlighted his tendency to play hero ball when it isn't needed. Lawrence can be as good as he wants to be, but he will have to finally make sure one of his mistakes isn't the reason the Jaguars lose.
Brett Hawn: Will the Jaguars offense find their spark?
The offense needs to wake up. Putting up 6 points against a struggling Houston Texans team was completely unacceptable and the Jaguars let the game slip from their grasp as a result. While the Colts have had their fair share of struggles offensively, they have the personnel to put opposing defenses on their heels, it just hasn’t all clicked for them yet. The Jaguars have those pieces too, they just need to get out of their own way and find their early-season groove.
5) Score prediction?
John Shipley: I just get the feeling this will be a game the young Jaguars team feels like they should have won ... but don't. Colts 20, Jaguars 17.
Brett Hawn: The Jaguars have had the Colts' number at times for years now and I am fully confident that trend will continue Sunday. Trevor Lawrence will have the bounce-back performance many expect and the running back committee of Etienne and Robinson will set the tone early, resulting in a 24-14 victory in favor of the Jaguars.
