Jaguars vs. Texans, Week 1 Roundtable: Will Jacksonville Win the Season-Opener?
The 2021 NFL season is here. In nearly 24 hours, the Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off a new era against the Houston Texans, an era led by Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence.
How does the Jaguar Report staff think the Jaguars' first game of the season unfolds? Who wins, and why? We break it all down below in the Week 1 roundtable.
1) The big question defensively is if the Jaguars can limit Tyrod Taylor. Does he pose a legit threat?
John Shipley: He poses a threat in the sense that a mobile quarterback against a defense that exclusively runs man coverage is always a red flag, but not much more beyond that. Taylor doesn't make many mistakes with the ball, but that is in large part because he doesn't take many risks. He is a smart, but safe, veteran quarterback, so the Jaguars shouldn't be too concerned with what he can do through the air, especially with a depleted receiver room. But Taylor is a legit dual-threat and the Jaguars have a scheme that invites those types of players to find success on the ground. The Jaguars should be able to limit Taylor, but he shouldn't be discounted as a potential X-Factor, either.
Gus Logue: If Jacksonville can contain Taylor on the ground, he shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Jaguars’ new-look defense. The Texans have zone reads and other run option looks for their quarterback in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly’s system, who has been with the team since 2014, so there may be designed quarterback rushes on deck- but the main concern should be on passing plays, as Taylor tends to scramble at a high rate and heavy doses of man coverage (which the Jaguars are expected to emphasize) invites scrambles as defender’s backs are turned away from the quarterback. Look for Jacksonville to use designed stunts and spy assignments to keep Taylor from doing too much damage with his legs.
Kassidy Hill: It would be really easy to dismiss Taylor, considering he was the Texans' second choice behind the embattled Deshaun Watson. But it’s important to remember, Taylor is a former Pro-Bowler, led the Buffalo Bills to their first playoff appearance in 17 years and was named the starter to both the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers before injuries sidelined him; he’s a Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert MVP season away from still being a starter. He still owns seven Bills QB records.
Taylor has an extremely low touchdown-interception ratio (54-20) and has added 16 touchdowns on the ground. His athleticism makes him a threat in the run game, but that’s an area where the Jaguars' defense has put a large focus in the offseason.
Through the air, Taylor doesn’t take a ton of risks, which can cut down on big plays, but it also limits the Jags opportunities to pressure him into bad decisions.
Taylor doesn’t pose the threat Watson does, but he’s a longtime NFL vet who is more than capable of leading a competent and methodical offense.
2) Who scores the first touchdown for the Jaguars, and why do you think so?
John Shipley: Laviska Shenault. The Jaguars seem to have a bevy of plays designed to get Shenault the ball quickly in space, which should be even more advantageous the closer the Jaguars get to the goal line. Shenault is also the Jaguars' best receiver in terms of separating and getting open against man coverage, which makes him potentially the team's top red-zone threat, even with Marvin Jones on the outside. Shenault has all of the traits to find the end zone early and often, and the Jaguars have shown a willingness to let him use them.
Gus Logue: D.J. Chark. It seems that his recent thumb injury and some of Urban Meyer’s comments earlier in the offseason on Chark’s 2020 play, not to mention league- wide excitement surrounding Laviska Shenault, has led to Chark being almost an afterthought in this new Jaguars offense. His durability remains a concern, but I believe a relatively healthy Chark easily paces the team in receiving production, and that starts right off the bat in Houston.
Kassidy Hill: If I was a betting woman, I’d put my money on Marvin Jones Jr. The Jaguars will likely want to come out swinging, letting Trevor Lawrence put the ball in the air to put defenses on notice. For his first time facing a NFL starting defense, Lawrence is going to go to his most trusted receiver and that’s Jones. They’ve developed the most chemistry in the offseason and Jones’ veteran experience can help make the rookie quarterback comfortable.
3) Who ends up with more total yards: James Robinson or DJ Chark?
John Shipley: James Robinson, in large part because I think the Jaguars will emphasize giving him the ball as the game drags on. I think Chark will have a big performance against a defense that doesn't seem equipped to stop deep passing threats, but Robinson will get a higher volume of touches. The Texans' defense was bad against both the run and pass last season, but their run defense was especially poor. Considering the Texans' scheme change and the loss of some significant talent up front in J.J. Watt, I think the Jaguars will find plenty of success on the ground in Week 1. Urban Meyer, Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer have all built their careers on utilizing powerful running backs, and Robinson is no different. Look for him to play a big role in Week 1.
Gus Logue: While I expect a strong game from Chark, James Robinson is set up to feast against a Texans rushing defense that ranked dead last in yards per carry, explosive run rate, and broken + missed tackles allowed last season (per Sports Info Solutions). The Jaguars also project to have the eighth-largest advantage in the trenches on offense this week per ESPN’s run block/stop win rates. Robinson played on just half of Lawrence’s 66 preseason snaps, but I’d expect his usage to increase in the regular season with Carlos Hyde serving as more of a No. 2 back than a 1B to Robinson’s 1A. The premiere of the no. 25 jersey is bound for success.
Kassidy Hill: It’ll be James Robinson, for the simple reason he has less help than Chark. Yes, there is Carlos Hyde, who the staff is intent on keeping in the game plan, but with Travis Etienne now on the IR, the depth behind Robinson isn’t what it was thought to be.
Chark has Jones, Laviska Shenault and Tyron Johnson with whom he’ll split snaps. Even though Chark’s gains are likely to be for larger chunks, Robinson’s ability to stay upright after contact allows him to pick up tons of YAC yardage. Of course, this is somewhat dependent on how the offense is split/balanced. But pure probability suggests it will be Robinson.
4) Should the Jaguars keep a short leash on Andrew Wingard while Andre Cisco waits in the wings?
John Shipley: They should, but I truly think the question of the strong safety spot is going to sort itself out. Both Andrew Wingard and Andre Cisco are going to play vs. Houston, with the Jaguars likely planning on each playing different roles and in different situations. Ultimately, the Jaguars are going to lean on whichever player is performing better. If Cisco truly outperforms Wingard, then he won't have to wait long to become a full-time player. The Jaguars won't keep him on the bench in that event, even if they are high on Wingard. But if Cisco struggles early on, then the Jaguars will look smart in making strong safety a rotational spot. The Jaguars are playing the weakest part of their schedule early in the season, so games like Week 1 are when the Jaguars should figure these questions out.
Gus Logue: Yes, with the primary reason being the opponent. Gaining NFL experience would undoubtedly be beneficial for Cisco, and the beginning of Jacksonville’s schedule provides an opportunity for the team to let him get his bearing against mediocre opponents. The Jaguars are set to play the 31st, 19th, 16th, 23rd, 10th, and 14th ranked offenses (in terms of projected offensive DVOA) prior to the week 7 bye. Better to allow room for error against weaker opponents before the schedule toughens up during a potential playoff push for a player that Jacksonville surely drafted with the intent to start at some point in the near future.
Kassidy Hill: Absolutely. Andrew Wingard is a real asset on special teams—something that is very important to Urban Meyer—and his downhill hard-hitting style can provide big plays in the backend. It also comes with risk, of which he finds himself on the wrong end of too often.
It makes sense to hold Cisco for the time being. But as he grows, his snaps will increase ten-fold and sometimes the best lessons come with baptism by fire. Furthermore, the Jags open with four games in which Cisco could stand to test his learning curve. The Texans, with fewer deep threats than in the past, are a great opportunity to get him that next-level experience.
5) Final predictions?
John Shipley: Jaguars 24, Texans 13. I don't think the Jaguars should be considered a team that is yet strong or experienced enough to be considered a lock to roll over a bottom-dweller like the Houston Texans, but they match up well with the Texans. Houston has built their entire offense around running the ball, and right now stopping the run seems to be the one thing the Jaguars do the best. They have a defensive scheme built to stop the run and the personnel to do it, so I think Houston is walking into this week at a disadvantage. Ultimately, Trevor Lawrence is too talented to have the Jaguars drop this game, even if it isn't the blowout many predict.
Gus Logue: Jaguars 31, Texans 20. There are seemingly dozens of question marks regarding Jacksonville this season, but the only area of the organization that I don’t have some hesitation on is the quarterback room. The Jaguars benefited from a massive quarterback upgrade this season, while the contrary can be said about the Texans, and that alone will be the difference in this game.
Kassidy Hill: I think if Lawrence completes around 62% of his passes and throws between 220-270 yards, and stays on the right side of the touchdown-interception ratio (his first rookie start, some turnovers can be expected/understood) he’ll have put together a really solid first day and kept the offense in a great position to score multiple times.
If the defense can keep up the run defense they exhibited in the latter preseason, it should be enough to give the offense room to work and deliver the Jaguars a win.
But, to harken back to the first question, there’s a serious chance Tyron Taylor could keep the Texans humming along enough to overcome the three-point spread that currently favors the Jags.
Urban Meyer has this team believing though. And as much as motivation isn’t a game plan—especially in the NFL—there’s something to be said for it contributing to confidence heading into the game.
Final prediction? The Texans make a late push, but Jags win, 31-28.
