Jets' Assistant GM, Ex-OC Reportedly Preferred Wilson Over Lawrence in 2021 Draft
When it comes to NFL Draft evaluations, it is hard to ever bat close to a perfect record.
In fact, even being right just on occasion would make one a top-32 talent evaluator by most standards.
But that doesn't excuse some misses, like the one some top voices in the New York Jets' organization reportedly had in the lead-up to the 2021 NFL Draft. According to a deep dive by ESPN's Rich Cimini, Jets assistant general manager Rex Hogan and ex-offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur went as far as to say No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson was a better prospect than Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
"Some talent evaluators within the organization didn't see Wilson as worthy of being the No. 2 pick, according to two sources familiar with the pre-draft process," Cimini wrote. They saw him as a developmental player who could be a starter within three years. Assistant GM Rex Hogan and then-offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur were the driving forces behind the decision to pick him second, they said."
"[LaFleur], along with Rex Hogan, were in 2021 draft meetings selling the narrative that there was a legit argument Wilson was better than [No. 1 overall pick] Trevor Lawrence," one source said. "[Some of us], we're like, 'What the f---?!' It's one thing to like a player; it's another to pump a prospect up higher than he actually is."
That is one draft take that clearly hasn't aged well. In the two full seasons since, Lawrence has established himself as one of the NFL's top young quarterbacks with a 2022 season that saw him improve his numbers across the board, earn a Pro Bowl alternate nod, and lead the Jaguars to an AFC South title and a home playoff win.
Lawrence increased his passer rating by 23.3 in 2022 (from 71.9 to 95.2), marking the fifth-largest improvement in NFL history among qualifying quarterbacks from their rookie season to their second season.
The Jaguars won nine regular season games in 2022 in Head Coach Doug Pederson’s first season, marking a six-game win improvement from 2021. Jacksonville earned their eighth postseason bid in franchise history and won the AFC South for the second time since the division was formed in 2002.
Jacksonville began the regular season 3-7 prior to winning six of their last seven. The Jaguars five-game winning streak was the second time the Jaguars closed the season on a five-game winning streak to make the postseason. In three of the Jaguars games in 2022, the team completed comebacks of 17 points or more, including a comeback from down 27-0 against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
Lawrence, meanwhile, threw for 25 TDs and rushed for five TDs in the 2022 regular season. He was one of four players in the NFL with at least 20 passing TDs and five rushing TDs. After two seasons, he leads the 2021 quarterback class in passing yards, completions, passing touchdowns, and total touchdowns.
Wilson, meanwhile, has battled through injuries and numerous benchings, posting just 15 touchdown passes in 22 starts and some of the league's lowest efficiency metrics.
It is a bit tough to believe the Jets drafted Wilson at No. 2 because of their assistant general manager and ex-coordinator. Plus, the Jets surely would have taken Lawrence at No. 1 had they not won two games at the end of the season to gift the Jaguars the top pick and Lawrence, a bonafide franchise quarterback.
It is also worth noting that one of the framed accusers of this draft miss has been the clear scapegoat of the Wilson debacle in LaFleur, who has become an easy target when looking at the Lawrence/Wilson debate.
Still, there were others who had Wilson ranked above Lawrence throughout the NFL and national media. While Lawrence may have taken a little longer to hit the expectations people had for him than most imagined he would, it is clear that even can't-miss prospects like Lawrence can, well, be missed.
