PFF Believes Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence Could Be a 'Legitimate MVP Candidate' Entering 2023

For the first time in franchise history, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a quarterback who looks like a legitimate MVP.

The Jaguars have had elite players before. Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith and Pro Football Hall of Famer Tony Boselli were all some of the best to play their position. But the Jaguars have never had a player who one could make a legitimate argument for as an NFL MVP candidate.

Until now, at least.

For third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, all indications are that he deserves to be considered a serious contender for the award entering the 2023 season. While established veterans such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts will all make pushes for the award as well, Lawrence is entering a situation that is prime for a breakout candidacy.

That is how Pro Football Focus sees it, at least. PFF's Sam Monson made the case for Lawrence as a "legitimate MVP candidate", noting that he was among the most productive quarterbacks in the entire NFL over the season's final nine weeks.

"Nobody has ever doubted that Lawrence has supreme talent. Pulling out one of his big-time throws to illustrate what he is capable of seems superfluous. His 6.4% big-time throw rate down the stretch last season trailed only Josh Allen, and he offset those big plays with a turnover-worthy play rate almost half that of Allen,"

PFF said.

"Lawrence was effectively playing at an MVP level over the second half of the season, and if he just continued that vein of form into the 2023 season and sustains it all year, he will be firmly in the conversation."

The start to his career caused everybody to have to tap the brakes a little on Trevor Lawrence hype, but a year and a half into his career he is now back on the course everybody expected him to be on when he was coming into the league. If the Jaguars stay on course and become a true force in the loaded AFC this season, Lawrence’s MVP candidacy will be a real thing to be reckoned with.

The argument for Lawrence entering 2023 is fairly easy to make. He should be even better than he was last year, which was one of the top-10 performances any quarterback had in 2022. As long as he can continue on the trajectory he ended 2022 with, the sky is the limit.

Then you add in the fact that Lawrence's supporting cast is actually improving thanks to the addition of Calvin Ridley and it is hard to scoff at the idea that Lawrence and the Jaguars could get hot and earn the NFL's highest honor.

The biggest thing standing in Lawrence's way is the aforementioned names at the quarterback position, along with other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers who can all make their own arguments for MVP candidacy entering the 2023 season.

In 17 starts in 2022, Lawrence completed 387 of 584 passes for 4,113 yards and 25 TDs. His 387 completions were the most in a single season in franchise history and his five rushing TDs were tied with Garrard for the most in single-season franchise history.

Lawrence joined Burrow and Allen as the only players in the NFL with 25-plus passing TDs and at least five rushing TDs. Against the Titans in Week 14, Lawrence set a career-high with 368 yards passing and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance.

The second-year quarterback totaled four 300-yard passing games and orchestrated three comebacks of 17-plus points, including a comeback from behind 27-0 in the postseason against the Chargers.

Last year, Lawrence ranked top-8 in DYAR, DVOA, effective yards, interception %, ANY/A, Sack %, and success rate, while also finishing top-10 in EPA/Play and CPOE.