What Contract Projections Say About Jaguars' FAs Jawaan Taylor, Evan Engram and Arden Key

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot of work to do before March 15.

With the new league year beginning at 4 p.m. on that fateful day, the Jaguars have until then to attempt to keep their three most important impending free agents: tight end Evan Engram, right tackle Jawaan Taylor and defensive lineman Arden Key.

On top of that, the Jaguars and general manager Trent Baalke have to navigate being over $22 million over the 2023 cap.

“Cash is more important than cap. There’s ways to maneuver the cap, and there’s ways to extend things into the future, but you’ve also got to be smart and diligent when you’re doing that," Baalke said last week.

"Again, we’re going to look at all of our options, we’re going to meet as a staff tomorrow, go through what our wish list is, then we’ll sit down with ownership, we’ll sit down with those that work on the cap and contracts, we’ll sit down with them, and we have been. We’ll have a final meeting with them to really get the ball rolling for the future.”

Navigating the Jaguars' present and future cap while not losing key talent will be the most important challenge Baalke and the Jaguars face this offseason. As such, it is always a good practice to have an idea of what players might fetch on an open market, and what the Jaguars may have to do to match said offers.

Pro Football Focus recently released contract projections for their top-100 free agents, which consist of four Jaguars: Taylor (No. 15), Engram (No. 44), Key (No. 48), and defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot (No. 100).

But what do each of their projections say about the Jaguars' free agents and their potential ability to stay in Jacksonville? We break it down below.

Jawaan Taylor

It isn't hard to imagine that Taylor will get the biggest deal in free agency among this trio. He is the youngest player at 25 years old, has not missed a single start in the four seasons since he was a second-round pick, and is coming off the best season in his career.

"Taylor had a career year as a pass protector, earning his highest pass-blocking grade with a 76.4 mark that landed him in the top 25 among tackles on the year. Taylor allowed pressure on just 2.5% of dropbacks, the third-lowest mark among tackles in the NFL, though quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s lightning-quick 2.51-second average time to throw certainly helped. However, Taylor’s 76.7 pass-blocking grade on true pass sets still ranked 14th among tackles and his 5.2% pressure rate allowed was a top-10 mark," Pro Football Focus wrote.

"On the other hand, Taylor had the highest rate of negatively graded run blocks among tackles in the NFL (22.4%). This is, of course, the less important aspect of tackle play, but it’s undoubtedly still a cause for concern if a lineman is earning a negative grade on more than one out of every five rushing plays."

PFF projects Taylor's contract in the ballpark of four years, $57 million ($14.25M per year) with $33.5 million total guaranteed. In comparison, Cam Robinson signed last year for three years, $54 million ($18M per year) and $33 million guaranteed.

If Taylor were to sign for that deal, he would be fifth on the roster in APY behind Christian Kirk, Robinson, Brandon Scherff, and Foyesade Oluokun, while earning more in guaranteed money than everyone but Kirk, Robinson and Scherff.

For the Jaguars to engage in such a deal, they would likely need to backload the contract, pushing Taylor's cap hit to 2024 and beyond. With Robinson, Scherff, Darious Williams and a host of other high-priced Jaguars potentially being off the roster in 2024, the Jaguars could manage a deal like this for Taylor, but it would mean having to make some tough decisions down the road.

The question is if Taylor would shoot to be the No. 7 right tackle in APY, but the $33 million guaranteed is more than all but two right tackles in the NFL. This seems like a deal that could get done, if the Jaguars wanted to.

Evan Engram

There is no doubt the Jaguars want Evan Engram to return. In fact, it would be a mild surprise at this point if Engram even hits the open market. Engram and the Jaguars both know what he is worth, and there is obvious mutual interest between both parties for a reunion in 2023.

The bigger question is what would an Engram return look like in terms of salary? Engram has earned the right to sign a contract that is around the lines of what Jonnu Smith (four-year, $50 million, $31.25 guaranteed) or David Njoku (four-year, $54.75 million with $28 million guaranteed) got. Smith's $12.5 million APY and Njoku's $13.68 APY seems like the ballpark of what Engram should demand, at the very least.

"Engram landed in Jacksonville on a one-year, $9 million flier for the 2022 season after a rocky tenure with the New York Giants marred by some inopportune drops. The Giants were asking Engram to block as an inline tight end and do a lot of things that didn’t match his skill set very well, but Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson had a much better plan for him in Jacksonville, and he put up a career year in the process," Pro Football Focus wrote.

"Engram’s 73 receptions were tied for the third most among tight ends, his 766 receiving yards ranked fourth and his 481 yards after the catch placed second. Even with an uptick in targets, Engram had a career-low 3.9% dropped pass percentage, good for a top-15 mark among tight ends with at least 25 targets on the season. The former first-rounder will look to cash in on a multi-year deal after making the most of his opportunity, and while there are some limitations to his game, teams could do a lot worse in the free-agent market at tight end."

PFF has Engram projected to sign a deal worth three years, $38.25 million ($12.75M per year) with $25 million total guaranteed. This is less than what both Smith signed in 2021 and what Njoku signed earlier this season, creating an interesting question for the Jaguars.

Paying Engram more than what Njoku and Smith got likely makes sense in terms of pure production and talent, though Engram's age and Pederson's system do create a sense of wonderment in this scenario. Pederson has proven he can get production out of tight ends, so is it worth it for the Jaguars to sign Engram for a large deal?

Considering Engram's impact on the Jaguars' culture and his connection with Trevor Lawrence, it makes sense for the Jaguars to potentially be willing to spend big for Engram. They would likely do backflips for a deal like PFF projects, but the reality is Engram will get a larger deal.

Arden Key

Another player who has expressed interest in returning to Jacksonville in 2023 is Arden Key. The veteran signed with the Jaguars on a one-year deal last offseason and made the most of it, proving to be one of the top leadership voices on defense while also making an impact as a pass-rusher from a number of alignments.

"Key made the most of a one-year flier with the Jaguars after a strong 2021 season with the San Francisco 49ers that got his career back on track, earning his second consecutive 70.0-plus pass-rush grade to go along with 90 combined quarterback pressures and 11 sacks over the stretch," Pro Football Focus wrote.

"Key’s 14.6% pressure percentage over the past two seasons ties for 17th among edge defenders, and he’s still an ascending player with the ability to rush the passer from all over the defensive line."

PFF projects Key to sign a deal for two years, $18.5 million ($9.25M per year) with $11.5 million total guaranteed.

No pass-rusher was more efficient for the Jaguars in 2022 than Key, so the Jaguars need to seriously consider paying him what he is worth. While playing mostly as a rotational player and sub-package edge rusher, Key led the Jaguars' defensive line and edge rushers in pass-rush win-rate and was second on the team in pressures and quarterback hits despite not being an every-down player. When injuries hit, it was Key who stepped up.

If PFF's projection is what Key will cost, then that is a deal the Jaguars can make relatively easily after restructures and releasing a few players. It is a deal they should make, too, because it keeps Key on the roster in 2024 when there is a potential transition coming to the defense as Josh Allen's contract expires.