What Makes James Robinson a Strong Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidate?
In the entire history of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the franchise has yet to yield a rookie who has been able to take home the honor of a Rookie of the Year award. But could that change in 2020 with rookie sensation James Robinson?
Maybe, maybe not, but the undrafted running back from Illinois State at least has a strong case to make.
Robinson is averaging 17.7 carries per game as a three-down back. That’s actually a pretty low amount among the top RBs in the league right now. To put Robinson’s skills into context, the only two running backs that have more total rushing yards than him, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry, are getting 20+ carries per game.
Lack of carries is the only thing holding Robinson back from having more yards than every running back in the NFL. If anyone takes a look at Robinson’s stat line, you will see for yourself that if the Jaguars just fed Robinson 20+ carries per game, he will more than likely produce 100 rushing yards, give the offense more downs and provide scoring opportunities.
(images via ProFootballReference.com)
Just for an example, if we look at Weeks 7, 9, 10, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden handed it off more than twenty times and the Jaguars' offense scored 20+ points. Right now the passing game is not consistent, and if the quarterback cannot be relied on (which seems to be the case more often than not) and the Jaguars don’t feed Robinson, the offense hasn't been effective. Through Week 12, the Jaguars had the third-lowest percentage of running plays compared to passing plays (37/63 ratio), so leaning on Robinson hasn't always been the case.
But when the offense does run through him, it is simple -- Robinson keeps the offense competitive. He is top five in the league in the following categories: yards from scrimmage, all-purpose yards, rushing yards, attempts, and touches.
Throughout the year, Robinson has shown elite ball carrier attributes and continues to perform well in different roles on the offense. At first sight, you can tell that James is a three-down back -- he has quickness reaching the second level of the defense, shows solid vision and patience between tackles, ability to get north & south using explosiveness from his back foot, and outstanding athleticism when in the open field.
Of course, there are attributes that are nearly impossible to track with a statistic, such as awareness, on-field effective communication, and even heart & competitiveness; heart alone can rally a team for a drive. There are also statistics that are hard to find, like blitz pick-ups, blocking downfield and others, but there are certain ones that really show you who a player is and help you define that player. These are all the combined reasons why Robinson should have a case as the offensive rookie of the year.
Ability to get yards after contact
According to Pro Football Reference, Robinson has broken 15 tackles (10th most in NFL) and has recorded a rushing attempt per broken tackle mark of 14.1 You can see how he puts his body on the in every part of the offense but when running the ball, whether it's putting a tackler on his back, or popping out from a pile, it is a big reason he averages just about 5 yards per carry every game.
Right away we notice that Robinson moves pretty quick between the tackles. He has the ability to get to the second level of the defense incredibly quickly. The second level of the defense is the linebacker’s group; generally they lineup right behind the defensive line, so if you can reach them often (after the line of scrimmage), then you are getting positive yardage.
Obviously, every rookie has parts of their game they need to work on, and while it would be hard for anyone to proclaim any rookie is the answer for the next 10 years, Robinson is certainly showing you the qualities for what it takes to be in that position.
Vision and patience
Robinson has shown time and time again throughout the season that he has very impressive vision.
Robinson does especially well when he can rely on his eyes and his athleticism, more specifically his lateral quickness, to make a play. On some stretch runs, the offensive line crashes on the defender based on leverage and you will have pullers who will pick up the rushers that fall in the gap. That allows Robinson to make his cut based on leverage.
Above, Robinson is stretching out his run to get as many defenders as possible to follow him to the sideline, then once he sees an offensive lineman turn his back, giving him a lane, he will make his cut upfield.
In a terrific game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 12, Robinson also showed patience and trust for his OL to continue blocking downfield.
Decision making
A big part of playing running back is the ability to make the right decisions in a split second, something Robinson has proven he can do. You will see Robinson usually attack a gap on either side of a double team, for instance.
If Robinson doesn’t see that his OL has the leverage to seal the edge on these stretch plays, he looks up-field for the double team. Sometimes there are last-minute blocks that can help him get to the second level of the defense, and when you follow the double team, that happens more often than not.
There have also been several instances this season where Robinson was running into a sea of defenders but made himself skinny and was able to slip between the first level. Even when it doesn’t seem like there is a lane, he is always looking for that double team, keeping his legs moving, and trusting the lead blockers to get to the second level.
Passing game value
Running the ball well isn’t the only reason why Robinson deserves Offensive Rookie of the Year. He not only sets up an effective play action fake, but he’s also able to pick up a linebacker's blitz at full speed and make plays as a pass-catcher.
Once there is a clean pocket, Robinson spreads the field by getting into open space in the flat and shows strong hands when catching the ball and getting yards after contact, which has given him some of his biggest plays this season.
Robinson's overall toughness shows through in every single aspect of his game. Head coach Doug Marrone even admitted that when he saw Robinson in pass protection, that was when he knew he was his RB1. Sometimes the ability to protect your quarterback is the one attribute missing from a running back being elite.
As the season closes, Robinson has the potential to finish in the top 3 in more than five major offensive categories. Recording more than 1,200 yards rushing yards would make him one of the top contributors in the NFL, and he would be the only undrafted rookie to ever do it. That alone deserves consideration for offensive rookie of the year.
