What We Learned About the Jaguars in 2022: Offensive Review
The Jacksonville Jaguars' 2022 season was one for the ages.
After just four wins in the previous two seasons combined, the Jaguars won the AFC South in thrilling fashion with a 9-8 record, won a home playoff game in the final seconds vs. Justin Herbert, and went down to the wire with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a hostile playoff environment.
For a team to do that, a lot has to change. It started with head coach Doug Pederson instilling a new culture in and out of the locker room and a retooling of the roster in free-agency and the draft by general manager Trent Baalke's front office alongside Pederson's coaching staff.
"We’re paid to do a job, and our job is to put the best product we can on the field. I’ve never listened to the noise," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said this week. "The noise doesn’t determine the decisions that we’re going to make as an organization. I think the best thing you can do when there’s a lot of noise is put ear plugs in and go about your job, and that’s what we tried to do. Again, it’s never one person that makes these decisions.
"It's a group decision, organizational decision. Doug (Pederson) and I are very much involved together in this process, and we involve everybody underneath us to the nth degree. There’s a lot of collaboration that people don’t see behind the scenes.”
Now, we have a chance to look at just how much the Jaguars showed us and what we learned about each piece of the team. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching, front office, and everything in between.
First, a look at the offense.
The Jaguars' offense took a leap in the first year under Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor. The Jaguars' offense was torn down at it's core and rebuilt from the first day of Pederson's tenure, and the year ended in some clear production.
| 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 32nd | 10th |
EPA/Play | 28th | 8th |
Success Rate | 19th | 5th |
Passing EPA/Play | 27th | 6th |
Rushing EPA/Play | 25th | 25th |
Passing Success Rate | 25th | 4th |
Rushing Success Rate | 10th | 21st |
DVOA | 27th | 8th |
Passing DVOA | 30th | 6th |
Rushing DVOA | 18th | 20th |
Adjusted Sack Rate | 10th | 3rd |
Quarterbacks
What we learned: Trevor Lawrence's decision-making took a significant turn in the right direction under Doug Pederson. After 17 interceptions as a rookie, Lawrence threw 12 interceptions in 19 games in 2022, but four of those came in one single playoff game vs. the Chargers.
Out of 39 quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks in 2021, Lawrence was No. 27 in turnover-worthy play percentage per Pro Football Focus, committing a turnover-worthy play on 3.7% of his dropbacks. This improved to No. 20 at 3.0% in 2022, with Lawrence being No. 12 from Week 10 on. Lawrence simply played smarter football under Pederson, which should be expected more and more moving forward.
What to watch moving forward: What will the Jaguars do at backup quarterback? C.J. Beathard has been a key part of Trevor Lawrence's first two years in Jacksonville, but he is a pending free agent and was originally signed by a different coaching staff than the one that is calling the offense today. Rookie E.J. Perry spent the year on the practice squad, but are the Jaguars willing to enter Lawrence's third season without a veteran ear?
Running backs
What we learned: Travis Etienne is the real-deal as a difference-maker. Etienne himself said this past week that he expected a bigger year for himself, but the reality is he recorded 5.7 yards a touch with 1,441 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns despite spending the first quarter of the season as a backup, He finished with the 4th most broken tackles of all running backs with at least 75 carries, per PFF. For context, the last five seasons the Jaguars' top rushers have finished 24th, 18th, 15th, 35th, and 12th in that stat.
What to watch moving forward: Will the Jaguars make the running back position a bigger piece of the passing game? Etienne was a solid check-down and screen option, but he finished No. 21 among running backs in targets -- behind Rex Burkhead, for example. With Etienne's explosiveness, it is a wonder if the offense will ever tap into that part of his game more.
Offensive line
What we learned: Walker Little is the insurance the Jaguars needed at tackle. The Jaguars drafted Little in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft knowing that sooner than later he would need to step into a starting role. He did so in 2021 but more importantly, did it during an extended stretch in 2022 at left tackle that saw him log two playoff starts. With Jawaan Taylor set to be a potential free agent, Little's experience gives the Jaguars a lot of flexibility.
What to watch moving forward: Will the Jaguars retain Jawaan Taylor? The former 2019 second-round pick was arguably the Jaguars' best pass-protector in 2022 and has never missed a single start in 68 games since he was drafted. He is set to be 25-years-old in Week 1 next year and posted the seventh-best pass-blocking efficiency of any offensive tackle with at least 100 snaps last year, per PFF. He has the talent to be a building block, but can they afford to keep him in the fold?
Wide receivers
What we learned: Christian Kirk was worth the money. As things stand today, Kirk is No. 19 in APY among wide receivers, and it would be fair to say he played like a top-20 receiver at his best during 2022. Kirk was a perfect fit in Jaguars' offense, opening things up in the slot in a big way. He was No. 7 in terms of yards per route run among all slot receivers with at least 50 receptions and was No. 2 in total receiving yards from the slot.
What to watch moving forward: Calvin Ridley's impact on the offense. Doug Pederson himself said taking shot plays and stretching the field is something the offense can improve on, and it will be up to Ridley to make that happen. He would give them a more dynamic option on the outside than Lawrence has ever had; how can that help Lawrence and Kirk improve?
Tight ends
What we learned: Evan Engram is an important part of what the Jaguars do, on and off the field. Engram was a dynamic horizontal passing threat for the Jaguars, consistently picking up yards after the catch on physical and aggressive plays to put the Jaguars in advantageous positions. Engram was a perfect fit for Lawrence and Pederson and was a leader and key piece of the culture Pederson instilled.
What to watch moving forward: What kind of deal will it take to keep Engram in Jacksonville? After the kind of year he had where he finished as a top-6 tight end in every important stat, Engram has earned the right to sign a contract that is around the lines of what Jonnu Smith (four-year, $50 million, $31.25 guaranteed) or David Njoku (four-year, $54.75 million with $28 million guaranteed) got. Smith's $12.5 million APY and Njoku's $13.68 APY seems like the ballpark of what Engram should demand, at the very least.
