Why Gardner Minshew Is the Jaguars’ Best Option To Back Up Trevor Lawrence in 2021

With Alex Smith officially retiring, the Jacksonville Jaguars now have more reasons to keep Gardner Minshew than they do to trade him.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are nine days away from a rebirth of epic proportions at the starting quarterback position, so it is natural for the backup spot to fall to the wayside -- but it shouldn't. 

Few teams understand the value of having a competent backup like the Jaguars, who have had to turn to the backup quarterback in each of the last three seasons. The future No. 1 overall pick should be penciled in as a starter for all 17 games, but an insurance option is smart for any NFL team.

With the number of holes on the Jaguars' roster moving into next weekend's draft, the only quarterback addition the Jaguars are likely to make is when they pick Clemson's Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall. As a result, the options for Lawrence's first NFL backup are dwindling.

One of the most logical options to be Lawrence's backup in 2021 was former 49ers, Chiefs, and Washington Football Team quarterback Alex Smith. Smith retired on Monday after 16 years in the NFL, though he noted afterward that he only did so after considering signing with the Jaguars and his former head coach Urban Meyer.

Now, the Jaguars are left to three options for Lawrence's backup. 

1. The Jaguars could turn to one of their three in-house options: Gardner Minshew II, C.J. Beathard, and Jake Luton.
2. The Jaguars could sign one of the available free agent quarterbacks: Geno Smith, Robert Griffin III, and Brian Hoyer are among the best quarterbacks left unsigned. 
3. The Jaguars could trade one of their nine draft picks after No. 1 overall for a veteran backup ... but the options are slim here. 

Out of all of these options, it seems most likely the Jaguars will go with scenario one. More specifically, it would be a surprise if either Gardner Minshew or C.J. Beathard didn't open 2021 as the Jaguars' backup quarterback. Smith was the only logical option over both, and that had more to do with his veteran mentorship to Lawrence than it had to do with his ability to play the position. 

But with the options now dwindled down to a few, it has become increasingly clear how the Jaguars should address the quarterback position. In nine days, the Jaguars will draft Lawrence to lead the franchise into the future and be the unquestioned quarterback and face of the team moving forward. 

But behind Lawrence, the Jaguars should operate like a team that isn't willing to move on quickly from Minshew. While Minshew is up there with Teddy Bridgewater as the best veteran passers who could be available for trades, the Jaguars are better off keeping Minshew on their roster and as Lawrence's backup unless a team panics during or following the draft and way overvalues Minshew. 

The Jaguars won't get the kind of haul for Minshew that the Jets got for Sam Darnold -- Minshew has been a better NFL quarterback, but Darnold is operating under the guise of a former top-3 pick. Minshew is a solid player, but he is a former sixth-rounder with limited arm strength whose own team didn't seem thrilled to put him on the field toward the second half of last season. As a result, the Jaguars can find more value in keeping Minshew on the roster than they could by trading him. 

While Minshew is arguably the best quarterback who could feasibly be traded for currently and could push starters on teams like Chicago, New England, and Denver, it would be a bit jarring to see the Jaguars get anything but a pick outside the top-100 for Minshew. 

After all, this is a player who already wasn't held in immensely high regard in league circles when The Athletic interviewed 50 anonymous NFL coaches and evaluators before the 2020 season. After his 2020 year went worse than his rookie year, Minshew's trade value has likely plateaued. 

And logic shows that teams likely won't want to make a move for Minshew until they realize their draft plans at the position have evaporated. A fifth-round pick for Minshew in 2021 is one thing, but moving that pick all the way to 2022 would make that a tough pill for the Jaguars to swallow. Is a fifth-round pick 12 months from now more valuable than two cost-controlled years of a good backup quarterback?

Instead, the Jaguars are better off keeping Minshew on the roster during Lawrence's rookie year. Lawrence is going to be several months removed from a shoulder surgery at the start of Week 1 but he has never had many durability questions in the past -- despite this, it is better safe than sorry for the Jaguars to have a solid Plan B during Lawrence's and Meyer's rookie seasons. 

Minshew isn't a starting-level passer who can lead a team through a 17-game season, but he is also a smart player with 37 career touchdowns and only 11 career interceptions. He is flawed, but he presents more upside than Beathard and likely a higher floor as well. 

With all of this in mind, the Jaguars and Meyer haven't operated as a team that is looking to move the former starting quarterback. They did sign Beathard, but Meyer himself shot down any trade speculation about Minshew in March -- and to this point, Meyer has more or less been honest and forthcoming with his public statements as it relates to the roster. 

At the end of the day, Minshew's time as the most important quarterback in Jacksonville ended in December. But he still offers a lot of value as a backup quarterback, the type of value that most NFL teams would likely jump through hoops for to have as their No. 2 quarterback. 

Unless a team goes all in on Minshew and swings a deal for Minshew with an offer that is larger than logic suggests, the Jaguars are better off letting Minshew remain in the role he was drafted for: as the team's long-term No. 2.