2023 NFL Draft: 5 Observations From Jaguars' Pre-Draft Comments

In six days, the Jacksonville Jaguars will have their next new building block.

The latest in a long line of first-round Jaguars that dates back to Tony Boselli in 1995, the No. 24 overall pick on Thursday will be the next Jaguar with high expectations who fans and coaches alike hope can be the missing piece.

“I think you’re always looking, always looking to improve the team any chance you can, and obviously right now is a big chance to do that with the draft a week away, but I certainly feel good about where we’re at, but never complacent with where we’re at," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said yesterday at the Jaguars' pre-draft press conference.

Between Baalke and head coach Doug Pederson's comments to local media at TIAA Bank Field, what all did we learn about the 2023 NFL Draft when it comes to the Jaguars? We break it down below.

Who the Jaguars' 2-3 targets at No. 24 could be

The Jaguars will obviously have more than two to three options at No. 24 overall, but every team has a wish list. Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke hinted at the Jaguars having just that for No. 24 -- a list of two to three players they hope will be there. The question now is who are they?

"We need as many guys to go ahead of us as possible, and hopefully we’ll have our pick of two or three guys that we have in mind right now—it’s down to that level—probably two to three guys that we’re really interested in, and we feel like we’ve got a good shot at one of those guys," Baalke said.

Considering that the Jaguars have a few clear needs at deep positions in this year's draft class, we have three theories on the players the Jaguars are hoping will fall to No. 24.

Georgia outside linebacker Nolan Smith. Smith isn't the prototype edge rusher due to his sub-240-pound size and lack of ideal length, but he is one of the best athletes in the class, one of the smartest defenders in the class, and is seen as one of the top culture guys in the entire group. He was one of the heart and souls of the Georgia defense and can rush the passer, play the run and drop in coverage
Alabama defensive back Brian Branch. The Jaguars have shown plenty of pre-draft interest in Branch and this is a perfect scenario where need meets value. Branch could very well be there at No. 24 due to lack of prototypical size or speed, but he projects as a top nickel option at the next level and could fill out the Jaguars' secondary.
Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence. I feel like the NFL's general opinion is that the tackles will go off the board earlier than most people expect, so I believe Torrence is a plausible option. He would fit a big need at left guard and is the type of prospect Baalke has invested in during past drafts. Plus, the Jaguars were able to watch virtually every one of his 2022 games.

Why the Jaguars' hint at one specific position at No. 24

The word "value" was said 20 times at the Jaguars' pre-draft press conference. It has been a key phrase of the Baalke regime and will continue to be so. Baalke hasn't been afraid to speak on the mistakes of drafting need over value in the past (A.J. Jenkins), and has frequently been a believer in Jacksonville of finding where need and value intersect.

“You’re always balancing need and value, and when you say that, really, each year, the board is different. There are different strengths and weaknesses in every draft. Some years, the O-line, D-line are more prominent than maybe the edge guys or vice-versa, inside versus out. You’re still seeing the board based on value," Baalke said.

"Once you’ve got the board set on value, then you start looking at the needs. You don’t want to push players up the board value-wise just because you have a need at that postion. I’ve been doing this a while now, and most of the time, the value and need come together. Very few times have I looked at the board and said there’s just no value at the position of need we have. Sometimes it might be a card off, but it’s still close enough where you can address the need.”

Baalke wouldn't go as far enough as to say what positions he deemed as needs for the Jaguars, but it isn't hard: cornerback, pass-rusher and offensive line are the priorities. And if this is the case, then it means Baalke thinks one player at one of these positions will be worth the No. 24 overall pick.

The group that is the best bet to contain that player is cornerback. There are six cornerbacks in the top-30 in the consensus board, but only four pass-rushers and four offensive linemen. Cornerback is the deepest of these groups and is the most likely scenario where player will meet need.

"I’m just expecting that the board is going to fall a certain way ... years ofexperience, you tend to get a feel for how the board is going to fall. That doesn’t mean it’s going to fall; I’ve been sittng at 29 before and had nobody on the board we felt was valued at that level. That happens. We feel good about this group, this class, that there’s going to be enough depth in the draft, that there’s going to be a player at a need-position we have valued in that area that will be there when we pick.”

Pass-rush will be addressed -- but when?

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson hasn't been shy to say the Jaguars need to improve their pass-rush. They finished No. 26 in sacks last year and have lost Arden Key in free agency, while Dawuane Smoot is still un-signed after his Week 16 Achilles injury. Right now, the bulk of the pass-rush is dependent on Travon Walker and Josh Allen.

"From the coaching side, obviously, that’s an area we’ve got to improve. We do feel like we have the men in the locker room to get it done. Going into year two will make a big difference in the scheme of things," Pederson said.

"We’re comfortable there, and obviously, as we build our roster, getting closer to the regular season, we’ve got to make sure that we have the right guys at the end of the day. So with that being said, with Buck (Defensive Line Coach Brentson Buckner), Rory (Assistant Defensive Line Coach Rory Segrest), and Shuey (Outside Linebackers Coach Bill Shuey) and working with the guys this spring, being able to put them in positions that we feel as a staff can help us generate more pass rush. We look forward to that. It’s a challenge for us, but we know that’s an area that must be addressed.”

In short, Pederson knows that they will need their returning players to make an impact, but also that they need more firepower. The issue with this is exactly when the Jaguars can find that pass-rush reinforcement. It is tough to see any of the five first-round pass-rushers dropping to No. 24 overall, though the Jaguars have done extensive homework on the second- and third-round group of pass-rushers. This seems like the most likely territory for the Jaguars to hit when it comes to the pass-rush.

Sorting out the health of the offensive line

One important factor for the Jaguars during the offseason process is the health of the offensive line. The Jaguars are already down one starter after seeing Jawaan Taylor leave for the Chiefs and a megadeal in free agency, but there are questions elsewhere, too. Two other Week 1 starters from last year's offensive line -- left tackle Cam Robinson and left guard Ben Bartch -- sustained season-ending injuries, while recently-signed swing tackle Josh Wells also had a season-ending injury. Here is what Baalke said about each of the three:

On if Cam Robinson would be available for the start of training camp: “From a health standpoint, yes.”

On recovery update of Ben Bartch: “He’s progressing well. I don’t know that he’s going to be ready for the first day of camp, but he’s ahead of schedule as of right now.”

On Josh Wells: “He’s healthy.”

So, Wells will be available from the start of camp and could be expected to compete for snaps at offensive tackle if the Jaguars ever sustain injuries. The other two linemen, however, are more interesting cases.

Bartch not being available for the start of camp doesn't mean he won't be ready for Week 1, but the Jaguars could still think left guard is a bigger need than the general public does due to his injury. Whether this would point to a pick like O'Cyrus Torrence is one thing, but it is worth considering.

The Cam Robinson answer was interesting. Perhaps this is reading too much into it, but it is unclear why it was specified that Robinson would be available from a health standpoint. Perhaps Baalke meant that he will still have to get into shape after his meniscus injury late in the season, but it still stood out.

With that said, team sources have told JaguarReport that there have been "absolutely zero" conversations about trading Robinson, so Robinson isn't on the move or falling out of favor in the building. What exactly the answer meant is unknown, but it would seemingly make it more plausible that the Jaguars think investing in the offensive line is a priority.

Making sense of the 127

Every team has a different board when it comes to the draft. No team will have the same players ranked in the same spots, the same thoughts on the strength of the first-round, or the same group of players they deem as draftable.

For the Jaguars in 2023, that number comes down to 127. That is a staggeringly low number if you consider how many players get drafted each year, but Baalke made it clear that this simply means the Jaguars are strict about which players end up on the list.

"We’ve got 127 names on the board right now that are draftable for us. When you figure 230 plus guys are getting drafted, whatever that number is, you look at that, your odds dwindle on having guys that are what you consider draftable as the draft unfolds," Baalke said.

"The culture is huge. We spend a lot of time looking at these guys. Do they fit us? Do they not fit us? There are a lot of guys that are taken off the board because they just don’t fit our culture. They’re good players, but they just don’t fit what we’re looking for, and the coaching staff has a big weigh-in on that as well.”

In short, the Jaguars are set out to set a standard for which players they bring into the culture and the locker room. This could mean they get more aggressive in certain cases, especially later in the draft.

"Again, we have a specific way of how we set up the board, so while it sounds like 127, there’s more numbers baked in there," Baalke said.

"Those are the 127 that we really feel fit the culture we want, fit the value we have placed on them and really all the stars align. There are other fallbacks that we can go to, but really, we’re picking from 127.”