Jaguars Mailbag: Last Minute Analysis of No. 1 Pick, How Round 1 Could Unfold

Each week during this year's season, Jaguar Report will take Jacksonville Jaguars-related questions from our readers across social media and answer them in a question-and-answer format, giving readers a chance to have their voices heard.

You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.

With the draft taking place in just a few hours, we take questions on the No. 1 pick and how else the night could play out.

Q: At this point where would you place the odds of a trade still happening involving the #1 pick?

A: Zero. I do think the Jaguars would absolutely love to trade this pick and pick up even minimal assets if it meant moving a little further back, but I just don't see a scenario where it happens. What NFL team is trading up for any of these players? There are three pass-rushers, three tackles, two cornerbacks, and no quarterbacks in the top tier of players. That means close grades at a few specific positions throughout the NFL and a lack of standout players or signal-callers to entice a move up the board. I am sure the Jaguars would love to trade the pick, but I put the chances at 0%.

Q: Zero chance it is Thibs?

A: That is what I think. I do not think the Jaguars have Kayvon Thibodeaux graded as one of their top two pass-rushers, in large part because Thibodeaux lacks length and is less of a power player and more of a speed and finesse player, something this regime hasn't shown much interest in.

Q: Which tandem do you think will be better in 5 years: Jameson Williams and Ebiketie or Walker and Pickens? I would love to see the Jags shock everyone and take Jameson.

A: Oh, this is tough. I am gonna have to go with the first group, though. I have Williams graded higher than Pickens by a full-round, but I have a first on both Ebiketie and Walker. Ebiketie doesn't have the run-stopping ability of Walker but if you told me he was either first or second in sacks from this class five years down the road, I wouldn't be shocked. He has legit double-digit sack potential.

Q: Please tell me there is hope?

A: "Hope comes in many forms." -- The Sopranos.

Q: Which likely 1st round pick are you confident will be really good, and which are you confident will be bad?

A: I honestly think they are in a good spot; Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker and Ikem Ekwonu are all good prospects who would be set up for success in Jacksonville. I will say that I think Ekwonu could have the toughest chance to match the value of the pick, though, since he will likely play guard if he is drafted by the Jaguars and will be compared to pass-rushers throughout his career.

Q: Is there any historical precedent for a player with so little statistical production such as Travon Walker being taken 1st overall? Or anything close to that? If so, how did said player fare?

There really isn't. I can't think of a non-quarterback being selected No. 1 overall after just one year as a starter, for one, while Myles Garrett (31 sacks), Jadeveon Clowney (24 sacks), Mario Williams (25.5 sacks), and Courtney Brown (33 sacks) all outpaced Walker (9.5 sacks). There isn't a player who has ever gone No. 1 with Walker's profile, making it all the more a risky pick.

Q: Trent Baalke has an awful record of drafting quality players and/or retaining them. What makes you think this time around as GM could be different?

A: I have been a big critic of Trent Baalke throughout his tenure as general manager, but I think it is unfair to say he has an awful record of drafting or retaining players. The Jaguars have retained more key players than not the last two seasons and the 49ers were able to keep their core together for much of Baalke's tenure other than retirements, injuries and off-field issues. Baalke also did make some good draft picks with the 49ers and Jaguars, with DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, Colin Kaepernick, and Eric Reid all being solid picks, while last year's Jaguars' draft class has several players who show a lot of potential.

Baalke has made missteps with the Jaguars and 49ers, the former of which we have written about extensively. But to think he has one of the worst records imaginable a la Gene Smith is too far, in my eyes.

Q: Not a question, but congrats on the Travon Walker prediction

A: I laughed.

Q: Does the fact that Hutch’s only scheduled workout with the Jaguars give any hope to him still possibly being #1?

A: I don't think so. I really thought at the time and even up to a few weeks ago that Hutchinson having just private workout scheduled meant a lot. At this point, though, the fact that the workout didn't happen makes it kind of a moot point. If the workout actually transpired, maybe it would be more significant.

Q: How does Walker’s versatility (in regards to positioning and defensive schemes) match up and compare with the likes of Hutchinson?

A: Here is how I see it, and how I know some within scouting circles see it like this as well.

Aidan Hutchinson is a really talented pass-rushing prospect who thrived in a 3-4 outside linebacker role with Michigan in 2021. But before then, he was a 4-3 defensive end and showed flashed as a hands-in-the-dirt player. In my opinion, Hutchinson's lack of length and fluidity in space makes him much more of a fit as a 4-3 defensive end at the next level, especially at his size. He can be a wrecking ball firing off the snap every play, but I am not sure how much you want him standing up and playing in space at the next level. Hutchinson has limited scheme fits, but he is a heck of a prospect for the schemes he does fit in.

Walker, though, can fit in a variety of roles. He makes sense as a 4-3 defensive end but also has the athletic ability and movement skills to stand-up in a 3-4 defense. While some think he is more of a five-technique, Walker frequently stood up for Georgia and showed a lot of comfort in zone drops and looping inside from a two-point stance. Add in the fact he can rush from the inside more effectively than Hutchinson and I think it makes sense to think Walker has more fits, even if Hutchinson's best fit is better today than what Walker brings.

Q: It's less of a question and more of a please explain: I keep seeing from Jags fans that Travon Walker is similar to K'Lavon Chaisson and Taven Bryan... can you please explain how that is not true at all?

A: Yeah, I have seen those comparisons and comparisons to Dante Fowler as well and, to me, none make much sense.

Travon Walker is a raw pass-rusher with a lack of moves. He is also an athletic specimen from a height/weight/speed and leverage perspective who shows good instincts and plus run-defending ability. He is untapped potential at this point.

Meanwhile, the book on Chaisson, Bryan and Fowler were much, much different. The knocks on Chaisson was a lack of experience and rush-moves -- much like Walker -- but he is also lacked NFL size and strength. Walker is significantly longer, has a much larger frame, is much more physical against the run, and actually shows the strength needed to hold up on a snap-to-snap basis in the NFL.

As for Fowler, the former Florida Gators product was actually an average athlete entering the NFL. He sometimes gets the label of freak athlete who was too raw as a pass-rusher, but Fowler never had any of the athletics metrics Walker has. Walker is a true bet on athletic traits, while Fowler was anything but.

As for Bryan, he didn't have the instincts or feel for the game at the college level or the NFL level. Bryan, like Walker, was an upside pick due to exciting athletic traits. If any of the picks are traits-based, it is Bryan and Walker, not Fowler and Chaisson. But, unlike Walker, Bryan didn't have much of a floor as an early-down defender because he struggled to identify plays against the run.

Q: How much do you stand to lose when Walker goes #1? And if you’ve hedged off your Hutch position, what odds did you have to eat?

A: Only my pride, only my pride.

Q: If Cine, Linderbaum and Walker are all there at 33 which way do the Jags go?

A: This is really tough. I want to say Quay Walker, but it also is looking more and more like he is a first-round pick. Linderbaum would be tough to pass up if you are the Jaguars and Lewis Cine would be a surprise selection, but the Jaguars have gone best available player over need in the past and it isn't hard to see Cine carrying a higher grade with NFL teams than Linderbaum. I would think they go with Cine, but that is a tough call.

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