With the Jaguars Freefalling, Has the 2023 Offseason Already Been Ruled a Failure?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are freefalling.

A month ago, the Jaguars were 8-3 and were legit in the running for the AFC's No. 1 seed for the second time in franchise history.

Fast forward four games, and the Jaguars are 8-7 and essentially need to win-out to ensure a spot in the playoffs considering the Colts and Texans are both favored this week.

But even if the Jaguars do punch their ticket to the playoffs, it is clear that the 2023 season hasn't gone the way anyone thought it would.

Does limping into the playoffs at 10-7 or 9-8 qualify as a success? Do the Jaguars even look equipped to win a playoff game, let alone make a postseason run?

There are a lot of reasons to say no to both questions. And that means it is fair to start wondering if you can already rule the Jaguars' offseason a failure.

Most notable moves and non-moves of the offseason, and one in-season move.

Traded for Calvin Ridley.
Let Jawaan Taylor leave in free agency for Kansas City.
Extended Roy Robertson-Harris (three-year, $24.3 million) and DaVon Hamilton (three-year, $34.5 million).
Franchise-tagged Evan Engram, then signed him to a three-year, $41.5 million extension in mid-July.
Let Arden Key leave in free agency for Tennessee.
Released Shaquill Griffin.
Replaced Riley Patterson with Brandon McManus.
Drafted Anton Harrison in the first-round.
Drafted Brenton Strange in the second round.
Drafted Tank Bigsby in the third-round.
Signed Dawuane Smoot.
Traded for Ezra Cleveland.

The Jaguars ultimately returned 20 starters from their divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The only starters who didn't return were wide receiver Marvin Jones, who was replaced by Ridley, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who was replaced by Harrison.

In short, the Jaguars operated this offseason like a team that was already built. Their messaging both during the free-agency period, where they re-signed backups like Andrew Wingard, C.J. Beathard and JaMychal Hasty, and the draft was that they wanted improved depth and special teams.

When you message and operate the way the Jaguars did in 2023, it implies that the team is seemingly already built. And after a fully-healthy Jaguars' defense was just shredded by Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and after an entire season of the Jaguars' offense not meeting expectations, it begs the question: how could one perceive this roster as built?

It does seem like a lot of the Jaguars' hopes and expectations were development-driven. The hope that second-year players like Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Luke Fortner would take big steps. The hope that third-year players like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Walker Little, Andre Cisco, and Tyson Campbell would turn into legitimate blue-chip players.

Through 16 weeks, though, it doesn't look like any of that happened. The Jaguars seemed confident it would based on their offseason, but so far it looks like a losing bet.

Walker and Lloyd are better than they were as rookies, with Walker's sack production doubling. Neither is what one would call an every-week impact player, though. They have taken steps forward, but not leaps.

Fortner, meanwhile, has arguably been worse in 2023 than he was in 2022. The same can be said for Lawrence, who has seen turnovers and injuries pile up as he tries to overcompensate for his surroundings.

Etienne's production during the first-half of the season was a revelation but has tailed off. Little had a strong start to the season but has been in and out of the lineup with injuries and position changes.

Cisco and Campbell are perhaps the two biggest examples of players not developing, though injuries have been the story of each season for the most part.

Injuries in general have held the Jaguars back, especially along the offensive line and at wide receiver. But, to the same note, this has shown the Jaguars' lack of foresight for each group in the offseason. The Jaguars went into the season comfortable with their receiver depth, and also went into Week 1 relying on a still-recovering Ben Bartch at left guard.

The Jaguars' offseason was one of a team that bought it's own hype from a season prior. The Jaguars had a magical run in 2022. They deserve credit for it. It won't and shouldn't ever be forgotten.

But it should be seen as what it was. A 9-8 season that needed multiple comeback and last-minute victories to make the playoffs and an all-time come-from-behind win vs. a Los Angeles Chargers team that fired its head coach fewer than 12 months later.

It was a great first year for the Pederson era. It was a rousing success considering what the expectations externally were. But it wasn't a sure sign that the Jaguars would automatically take the leap in 2023.

Simply expecting -- and hoping for -- development doesn't mean it will happen. Accepting a team as built isn't building it. Even if the Jaguars won the Super Bowl in 2022, the moves they made this offseason would have still been criticized.

The Eagles and Chiefs aren't taking third-string blocking tight ends in the top-75. The Ravens aren't just shrugging their shoulders at upgrading the pass-rush. The 49ers didn't just rest on their defensive laurels at the trade deadline.

And the Jaguars shouldn't have either. Regardless of what the next two weeks show us, the first 16 weeks of the NFL season have shown us that the Jaguars weren't as good as they thought they were, leading to an ineffective and potentially harmful offseason.