Jaguar Report

5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Texans

What plays from Jacksonville's Week 5 loss to the Texans were the most important? We break it down here.
John Shipley|
5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Texans
5 Down Notebook: The Plays That Most Impacted Jaguars Vs. the Texans

The game is football is defined by many things, but nothing defines football more than big plays. Whether it is a touchdown in a huge situation or a turnover at the goal line, individual moments create the seismic shifts that we see determine the results of games every Sunday.

One tool that is especially helpful when it comes to gauging the impact of individual plays is Earned Points Added, or EPA. Inside The Pylon does a great job of explaining this, but essentially this way of looking at plays shows how much value a play has depending on the specific context of the play in question. In short, it takes consideration into down and distance and field position. So for example, this would show a 10-yard pass on third-and-5 is more impactful than a 10-yard pass on third-and-15, even if the quarterback and receiver each get 10 yards either way.

So with this in mind, I am going to use play data from Pro Football Reference every week to look at the five most impactful plays from the Jaguars' previous game in terms of EPA.

To arrive at the figure, I subtracted the actual earned points from projected earned points before each play, using PFR data. The plays with the largest difference were the most impactful plays. I ranked them on a 0 scale, which means that the further away from 0 a play is, the more impactful it is. A negative value simply means it is a bad play from the offense, so consider it a valuable play for the defense.

With that said, here are the five most impactful plays from the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-14 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 5.

Play No. 1: Deshaun Watson throws a fourth-down touchdown to Brandin Cooks

With an EPA of 5.35, the most impactful play from the latest Jaguars' loss was this fourth-down touchdown by the Texans. With Houston facing a fourth-down at Jacksonville's 28-yard line, Romeo Crennel had two choices: kick the field goal and go up 26-14, or go for the conversion to continue to bleed a clock that was already under five minutes left in the game. Crennel made the aggressive call to go for it and Watson threw a simple slant to Brandin Cooks, who dominated the Jaguars on Sunday. Chris Claybrooks missed the tackle after the catch and Cooks was off to the races, scoring a 28-yard fourth-down touchdown on a play that never looked like it was designed to score.

Play No. 2: Jarrod Wilson picks off Deshaun Watson

Likely the best play the Jaguars have made on defense this season, Jarrod Wilson was able to get an interception in his first game back from injury. Deshaun Watson attempted a deep heave into Jaguars' territory on a first-down play with 7:11 left in the third quarter, but fourth-year cornerback Sidney Jones was all over the pass. Jones reached his hand out to tip the ball in the air to prevent the catch, and Wilson would snatch the ball for the pick and return it 48 yards. The Jaguars didn't take advantage of the big-time pick, but the play earned an EPA of -5.25 for Houston's offense.

Play No. 3: Gardner Minshew and Chris Conley connect for 51 yards

The biggest play of Jacksonville's season in terms of yards, the Jaguars were able to get within striking distance of a touchdown with 11:23 left in the fourth quarter thanks to this bomb from Minshew to Conley. The ball was a bit overthrown by Minshew as he escaped to his right, but Conley made a terrific adjustment for what is likely the best catch he has made with the Jaguars. The play, which earned an EPA of 5.03, would set up Jacksonville's final touchdown of the day since it put the ball at Houston's goal line.

Play No. 4: Jaguars leave Darren Fells wide open for the score

You won't find many touchdowns that look easier than this one. Darren Fells got behind Jacksonville's second level and was able to simply sprint to the end zone for the smooth 44-yard touchdown. This touchdown earned an EPA of 4.35 in large part due to the fact that it was such a long score. Doug Marrone explained the Jaguars' breakdown here, which essentially suggests linebacker Dakota Allen was at fault for the score.

"But I thought early on, I think when they hit the big coverage, we had a new starter in there that kind of missed it, and with the over route from the tight end. We want to be looking at that. So that gave up the touchdown," Marrone said.

Play No. 5: Collin Johnson scores his first NFL touchdown on fourth-and-goal

The first touchdown of Collin Johnson's NFL career ended up recording an EPA of 3.97, which makes perfect sense considering the touchdown came on fourth-and-goal from the four-yard line. The touchdown, which was a terrific play by Minshew to extend with his legs, made the score 20-14 with 10:23 left -- it should have been the touchdown that helped set the Jaguars up to take an eventual lead, but the Jaguars' defense broke down at the end of the game. 

Honorable mention

  • Stephen Hauschka's first missed field goal had an EPA of -3.27, while the second missed field goal had an EPA of-0.81. 
  • Sidney Jones' interception at the end of the first half had an EPA of -3.46.
  • Gardner Minshew being strip-sacked by Jacob Martin with about 6:30 left in the game resulted in an EPA of -3.48.
  • Finally, James Robinson's fourth-down fumble had an EPA of -2.61.
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John Shipley
JOHN SHIPLEY

John Shipley has been covering the Jacksonville Jaguars as a beat reporter and publisher of Jaguar Report since 2019. Previously, he covered UCF's undefeated season as a beat reporter for NSM.Today, covered high school prep sports in Central Florida, and covered local sports and news for the Palatka Daily News. Follow John Shipley on Twitter at @_john_shipley.

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